Day trading is losers game

ssss's premise is that trades performed by traders are random. In this case of course this game is a negative sum one.

But who said, that entries can only be random and different edges cannot be gained by performing analysis of various aspects of markets?
 
Quote from cornixforex:

ssss's premise is that trades performed by traders are random. In this case of course this game is a negative sum one.

But who said, that entries can only be random and different edges cannot be gained by performing analysis of various aspects of markets?
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Patterns in Randomness.. the more you fall back on the fact that everything is random.. the more likely you are to succeed in my opinion.. but i'm just an ET retard... why do you think we all run our strategies through monte carlo simulations.. ? thats throwing pure randomness at your strategy... now why would we do that? haha
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

Patterns in Randomness.. the more you fall back on the fact that everything is random.. the more likely you are to succeed in my opinion.. but i'm just an ET retard... why do you think we all run our strategies through monte carlo simulations.. ? thats throwing pure randomness at your strategy... now why would we do that? haha
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Who are "we all"? :)

The most successful traders I have ever known don't "test" anything at all, they just trade it, based on their experience with some (only the absolutely required minimum) money management and analytical criteria to define risk/entry/exit etc.

And if it was random, there would be no edge to extract. It is random at times, at times it is not, for some bright people it is not for the most of the time...
 
Quote from cornixforex:

Who are "we all"? :)

The most successful traders I have ever known don't "test" anything at all, they just trade it, based on their experience with some (only the absolutely required minimum) money management and analytical criteria to define risk/entry/exit etc.

And if it was random, there would be no edge to extract. It is random at times, at times it is not, for some bright people it is not for the most of the time...
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i actually agree with both my statement and your statement and yet i'm still withholding judgement on both.. haha.. I do believe just as in any business you can create an edge for yourself.. but i as well believe your better off attributing wins to luck sometimes and losses to your lack of skill.. somethings are just not predictable.. No model out there isn't curve fitted to the past in some way.. its not that we don't error its just like what you say.. risk to reward.. position size.. etc.. .
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

i actually agree with both my statement and your statement and yet i'm still withholding judgement on both.. haha.. I do believe just as in any business you can create an edge for yourself.. but i as well believe your better off attributing wins to luck sometimes and losses to your lack of skill.. somethings are just not predictable.. No model out there isn't curve fitted to the past in some way.. its not that we don't error its just like what you say.. risk to reward.. position size.. etc.. .
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The best way to avoid curve fitting is just trade it, not discuss or "test it. :D

Real results will speak for themselves.
 
Quote from cornixforex:

The best way to avoid curve fitting is just trade it, not discuss or "test it. :D

Real results will speak for themselves.
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well i'm discretionary trading like you.. obviously that couldn't apply to those mechanical traders out there.. they just let their automated trading systems rip..
to be honest.. i know all lies start like that haha.. jk but seriously.. i think i've done rather well considering... i'm not rich but i haven't blown up my account and i've been marginally profitable.
 
cornixforex wrote


But who said, that entries can only be random and different edges cannot be gained by performing analysis of various aspects of markets?
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Trading record of 3 top performer's of real money contest through years ( approx 20 000 /50 000 per month * 36 month =
approx 1 000 000 attempts)

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-micro-trading-contest/485819-contest-winner-archive.html


1. Canada - 12,725.31% October 2011

http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micro/kom_docs/OCT2011/octtradereport1st.pdf

approx .80 % of profit
one operation with averaging up AUD/USD movement 0.94-1.05


2. Poland - 3109.97% , May 2010

http://learncurrencytrading.com/Micro/KOM/May2010/firstplace.pdf

approx. 80 % of profit
one operation with GBP/JPY movement 139.8 -128.25

3.China - 2464.12% , December 2011

http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micro/kom_docs/DEC2011/dectradereport1st.pdf

approx .80 % of profit

one operation in part's XAU/USD 1713-1615



It is very comparable with lotto
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or casino
######

one great operation ...

It is fortune ,not the analysis
 
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