Day trading is losers game

You can check real money contest result

http://learncurrencytrading.com/Micro/KOM/May2010/firstplace.pdf

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-micro-trading-contest/485819-contest-winner-archive.html

3109 % in month calculated on 500$

17087 $
###########

(realy more as 3109 % -month started with some 336.75$ $)

It is second result from 3 years ,each month approx 20 000
-50 000 competitors ( All fxcm account`s with balanse more as 500
$ automatical entry )

Most of them loss


Most of the profit - only one movement GBP/JPY
----------------------------------------------------------------

with one great operation

All profit -only 3 operations

2 short ,1 -long GBP/JPY









100 000 GBP/JPY short 139.8 - 128.25

10 maj -20 maj 2010 + 12894$
------------------------------------------
40 000 GBP/JPY long 134.8 - 139.8
7-10 maj 2010 + 4*540 $
-------------------------------------------

10 000 GBP/JPY short 145.58 -130.42
26 april - 6 Maj +1711 $
 
October 2011

1. Canada - 12,725.31% Survey / Trade Report (.xls version)

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-micro-trading-contest/485819-contest-winner-archive.html

http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micro/kom_docs/OCT2011/octtradereport1st.pdf

----------------------------------------------

Start Balanse - 1296 $
Ending Balanse -39745 $
Floating P/L -126481 $
Equity -166266 $
Month profit - 12,725.31% ( 128 time's )

1.aud/usd 3 oct 2011 Short 70000 -159$
0.96657 -0.96884
2. aud/usd 3 oct Long 70000 0.96870 -0.96658 -148 $
--------------------------------------------------
Balanse lower as 1000 $

3.aud/usd 3 oct short 80000 0.96656 -0.96370 +229 $
4.aud/usd 3 oct -4 oct ,short 100000 0.96341 -0.94387 +1937$
5. aud/usd 4 oct ,short 50000 0.95174 -0.94387 + 393 $
-------------------------------------------------------------

Balanse approx - 3548 $
...........................
6. aud/usd 4 oct 14.16 -15.31 long 200 000 0.94395 -0.94319 - 152 $
7. aud/usd 4 oct 15.31-16.12 short 200 000 0.94317 -0.94743 -852 $
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Balanse approx 2545 $

MOST IMPORTANT OPERATION -Multiple averaging UP AUD/USD
#################################################################


8.1 aud/usd 4 oct long 40000 16.12-18.15 0.94735 -0.94187 -219 $
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
20% of aud/usd position is closed with loss -219 $

Balanse approx -2325$
---------------------------------
8.2 . aud/usd 4 oct long 160 000 16.12 ---- 0.94735
31 oct 1.05290 +17248 $

80 % of AUD/USD ,which was open 4 oct 16.12
hold until end of the month with profit + 17248 $

-------------
8.3 - 8.xx

After that AUD/USD averaging up from 5 oct untill 27 oct
multiple time from 0.94735 untill 1.04754 and all closed by 1.05290
with profit 145 000 $
##############################

and after 27 october until 31 october 4 time aud/usd with loss -15000 $
------------------------------------------------------------------------
(open 1.07 -closed 1.0529 )

Summary 145000 -15000 $ = +130 000 $

+

9. eur/usd 5-9 oct long in 5 part's 210 000 1.33038-1.33895 +781 $
10.aud/usd 7-7 oct in 3 part's long 300 000 0.97564 -0.97735 +401 $
11. eur/usd 7 -9 oct long 20000 1.35139 -1.33898 -248 $
-------------------------------------------------------------------


12. eur/usd 10-14 oct long in 4 part 4*130 000 = 520 000

1.34139 -1.37863 +18300 $
#####################################
 
China

3 result from 507 $ until 13024 $ 2461 %

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-micro-trading-contest/485819-contest-winner-archive.html

http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micro/kom_docs/DEC2011/dectradereport1st.pdf

Equal story from 12500 $ of profit 10000$

from one operation in parts
###################

in this case short XAU/USD 4* 50

1713-1615

##############


All 3 best result's Fromn Canada,Poland ,China have one most profitable operation (in part's ,averaging up )

GBP/JPY AUD/USD or XAU/USD
 
Quote from ssss:

oilfxpro


Registered: Oct 2007
Posts: 1038

wrote ...



If bet = potencial profit ,long term hit rate = 50 %
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Example

Take case of small deviation and (!) no bid ask spread

SPY price = 139 , Retail client (Gambler) is short

with Target 138
Stop loss 140

Profit = Loss 1:1

After 10 000 attempts your hit rate with very great chance would near 50 % ( some 50.02 % or 49.98 %)
More...

Are entry criteria for attempts same?Are each type of entry criteria backtestable with accuracy?Entry criteria include
trend retracement ,
below support,
below resistance
trend
trend on 1m ,5 m ,15m
trend on 1m ,5 m ,15m ,30 m ,1 hr ,4 hr
trendline factors
stochastics?
time of day of entry
counter trend?
momentum
volatility
low resistance or high resistance level?
low or key support
intermarket correlation in place?
other context readings?
bullish or bearish sentiment?
shark pool area?
stop loss?
volatility
reversal
breakout
spread 1 pip or 3 pips
slippage infliction platform/broker


Do you use a lousy broker/bucket shop called FXCM/REFCO , PFG , or another crook?-

Do your 50 %figures have any meaning if the above can not be back tested?
 
SPY price = 139 , Retail client (Gambler) is short

with Target 138
Stop loss 140

Profit = Loss 1:1

After 10 000 attempts your hit rate with very great chance would near 50 % ( some 50.02 % or 49.98 %)

----------------------------
Quote from oilfxpro

...Are entry criteria for attempts same?Are each type of entry criteria backtestable with accuracy?Entry criteria include
trend retracement ,

Without any matter ...
########################


Market maker have advatage -spread
##########################

retail sector not
############

It is decisive advantage
###############

For existence one professional need 2000 -5000 retail operator
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

multiple hundred's VP by Goldman Sachs have salary
1 mln $ p.a.

multiple Senior Parner'S have salary 5 mln $ p.a.



... Entry/exit criteria based on different trading systems ,which
linked to economy theory

1. Adam Smit ,D.Ricardo and different Adepts
( Marschal ,Keynes , Friedman , Mjurdal )

2. Teaching Adam Smit based on Lokk doktrin

" Treatise to goverement "

3. Lokk on Bibel


No any scientific evidence ,as based on Religion
##################################

Each retail payed spread from start -that is
profit for Market maker's ( from GS,JPM &)

indepedent for direction
#################

Compare Stock ,future market with Casino or Lotto


Zero summ game
------------------------


Spread ,Broker and margin fees ,Tax
 
Back to congressional insider trading.
They are slick.
They back door every restricting law.
How about family?
How many laws are there?
Needle in the hay stack.
Do we still know all the crap in the health care bill, now constitutional??
I think not.
 
Roulette - Probability Theory Guide
#########################

Probability Theory Basics and Applications - Mathematics of Roulette

http://probability.infarom.ro/roulette.html

We call a simple bet a bet that is made through a unique placement of chips on the roulette table. The table below notes the winning probabilities for each category of simple bet, for both European and American roulette:

Simple bet

Probability (odds)
European roulette

Probability (odds)
American roulette


Payout

Straight Up




18/37 = 48.64% (1.0 : 1)

18/38 = 47.36% (1.1 : 1)


1 to 1

Even/Odd Bet


18/37 = 48.64% (1.0 : 1)
18/38 = 47.36% (1.1 : 1)


1 to 1

Low/High Bet


18/37 = 48.64% (1.0 : 1)
18/38 = 47.36% (1.1 : 1)


1 to 1

Let us denote by R the set of all roulette numbers. Any placement for a bet is then a subset of R, or an element of P (R). Denote by A the set of the groups of numbers from R allowed for a bet made through a unique placement. A has 154 elements.

For example, A (straight-up bet), A (split bet), A (corner bet), A (odd bet), A (the numbers 0 and 19 cannot be covered by an allowed unique placement).

We can define a simple bet as being a pair (A, S), where A and S is a real number.

A is the placement (the set of numbers covered by the bet) and S is the basic stake (the money amount in chips). Because each simple bet has a payout defined by the rules of roulette, we can also look at a simple bet as at a triple , where is a natural number (the coefficient of multiplication of the stake in case of winning), which is determined solely by A. We have that , according to the rules of roulette.

http://probability.infarom.ro/roulette.html

----------------------

In Roullete retail operator best chance by payement 1:1

48.64% ,lower as 50% ,no advantage

In trading retail operator best chance by payement 1:1

lower as 50% ,through spread ,broker and margin fees ,
tax

no advantage
--------------------------


Best strategy to win in game with no advantage

low quantities bets with high risk

Full in correlation with 3 example's above in thread (posting from ssss) Real money King of the Micro Contest


Each month some 50 000 attempts
For 3 Years more as 1 000 000 attempts

3 Best Month results 12700 %,3108% ,2462 % from Canada,Poland ,China -

all related to one operation (80 % of profit )
------------------------------------------

Movement of the pair's AUD/USD , GBP/JPY 1000 pips
or XAU/USD - 100$
 
American. 1 in 38 play 1 in 35 pay. Long term you lose no matter how you manipulate your bet. Your bet size is limited.
Easy to see in roulette or any casino game since they are relatively simple to figure. Harder to figure in trading since we can horrendously complicate any trading method. Still the sum of the parts.
 
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