Day trading is losers game

Quote from ocean5:

No thank you,i wouldn`t go live with that...
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any system developed to automatically trade doesn't have intutition?. but the development of that system had the intuition of the trader developing it no? you don't come up with this marks on the chart just from darts on a dartbooard? no i don't think so i just like discretionary trading.. mechanical automatic trading seems so type A personality.. haha idk.. just my thoughts..
i have a plan of action.. a position size, goals stratigies... but i like the idea of developing my sense of intuition.. instead of letting some programmed trading system send me to my doom . although i have messed around with genetic algos to come up with signals.. i never had much sucess with getting the ratios needed to have a decent system..
 
Quote from oilfxpro:

I finally found a robust day trading/scalping system , which is consistently profitable with low drawdowns.

It relies on entry price going above two confirmed supports or price going below two confirmed resistance .
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What a shocking revelation. Who knew such a thing was possible?

:cool:
 
you know i never looked into scalping.. do you sit there with the market depth window open popping away at hot keys to buy and sell literally all day?
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

any system developed to automatically trade doesn't have intutition?. but the development of that system had the intuition of the trader developing it no? you don't come up with this marks on the chart just from darts on a dartbooard? no i don't think so i just like discretionary trading.. mechanical automatic trading seems so type A personality.. haha idk.. just my thoughts..
i have a plan of action.. a position size, goals stratigies... but i like the idea of developing my sense of intuition.. instead of letting some programmed trading system send me to my doom . although i have messed around with genetic algos to come up with signals.. i never had much sucess with getting the ratios needed to have a decent system..
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÷å îí íåñåò,ÿ âîîáùå íå ïîéìó íèõóÿ...



:confused:
 
bottom line is i probably need to mess with it more.. i've never got it to work for me well.. all the necessary ratios to be a good strategy i could not get up to commonly acceptable levels...
 
Quote from oilfxpro:

In a worst case scenario , our position sizing can tolerate upto 50 losing trades in a row on long trades and another 50 losers on short trades, the average profit with 70 % hit rate is 50 to 100 pips daily , and a drawdown of 20 % , and a 100 % annual return without compounding.

Realistically , our expected drawdown is 3% , hit rate of around 60 % plus , and profit of 350 % with compounding .

It is not just a system , context is applied with strict stops and a unique position sizing which allows for many losers when markets become irrational longer than you and I can remain solvent..This is not a short cut to learning how to trade , as knowledge of many varied systems and methods are also applied .Most systems fail , but this system is doing well trading the euro/usd when we have the euro crisis.
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Good to hear. All systems rely on MM to make them survive but when max draw downs are exceeded the question will be do you hang in there? Neke is an example of a winning approach that is suffering so what should he do? There are no shortage of opinions on ET but it had great consecutive years profit.

You might have the winning system and time will tell. If it isn't, do you have the tools to know why and what to do? All mechanical systems that I have seen in almost 30 yrs have a flaw, but that doesn't mean no one can come up with one that works, it just makes it very unlikely.

Systems have a great appeal. You can learn them in very little time and they offer success on a plate and always with a unique twist that makes then better than all the ones that failed: that twist is always MM.

I used to be a pro gambler and I started out with a very successful system that I paid a pro gambler to teach me. Then I wanted to understand the game and that was when I discovered control came from knowing how the market flows. Trading is no different: it is a game of fakes and shark pools and runs but in time they change the game and that is when mechanical systems are shown to be curve fitted.

Btw a system like you quote will sell for tens of millions to the banks. Right now you can get IB's on ET who will get you accredited investors wanting to make 100 to 350% pa with a 3% draw down. There is one problem though, none of them will be interested and either their experience or yours is lacking something and the thread heading makes me think it might be you.

If you prove me wrong you will offer hope to millions of robot and system traders who paid a few bucks to get rich. Trading is a huge time consuming learning curve and what you are doing is part of the dues we must all pay so it is not intended as criticism. I was in those shoes at one time.
 
Quote from Xspurt:

Good to hear. All systems rely on MM to make them survive but when max draw downs are exceeded the question will be do you hang in there?

All mechanical systems that I have seen in almost 30 yrs have a flaw, but that doesn't mean no one can come up with one that works, it just makes it very unlikely.

I used to be a pro gambler and I started out with a very successful system that I paid a pro gambler to teach me. Then I wanted to understand the game and that was when I discovered control came from knowing how the market flows. Trading is no different: it is a game of fakes and shark pools and runs but in time they change the game and that is when mechanical systems are shown to be curve fitted.

Trading is a huge time consuming learning curve and what you are doing is part of the dues we must all pay so it is not intended as criticism. I was in those shoes at one time.
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i love all the above comments you made... fakes and shark pools.. i love that! haha They are all gaming you and overtime your curve fitted system gets arbitraged and you get blasted.. especially with large sums of money being traded.. so eloquently put...
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

i love all the above comments you made... fakes and shark pools.. i love that! haha They are all gaming you and overtime your curve fitted system gets arbitraged and you get blasted.. especially with large sums of money being traded.. so eloquently put...
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A friend bought a champion greyhound for a lot of money. Before every race he fed it 6 Mars bars and it went in a few races as the favorite and then the odds widened after that. When the odds were high the dog was set up to win and he hit the market hard.

In horse racing a trainer will run a horse at the wrong weight in the wrong ground conditions over the wrong distance to get the odds out and then when the horse is at it's peak the market is hit.It only take a combination of 7 lbs and one extra length and a slight ground change to put a horse off it's stride - tiny tells that most punters have no idea about.

Big Pharma tell us we are going to die of bird flu and sell a zillion vaccines to the gov that we pay for. Before that the EO's buy their own shares. There are more than 130,000 fines against big Pharma yet the public trust them with their lives.

The banks and big brokers are infamous for ripping off their clients and Obama and AL Gore were up to their necks in setting up a carbon trading exchange so guess what's coming.

Money and greed and gaming the public happens at all levels: always did and always will. In the US the elected representatives are allowed to use insider information to trade, something that is illegal elsewhere and having a set of rules for leaders and a different set for the public makes it feel honest to shaft the public as much as you can.

We used to trade on the back of the Ax on Lev 2 until he saw the piggybacking so then he started gaming. Now it is HFT's that are gaming each other. It is always a game and the rules are unfair and money, greed and sharks go together.

Do they conspire? You better believe it! Can a mechanical system cope with that? Not that I have seen so the fall back is always the MM and sooner or later the same thing as Neke is struggling with happens. I have seen pro traders and gamblers go out of business because for years a superficial understanding was all they needed but when things go pear shaped they do not possess the necessary tools or skill set to investigate what is causing the change in their affairs.

Honestly I hope Oily has got it right but from experience I thought I'd say, at least use the time to learn how to trade the flow of the market.
 
EXSPURT say's ........"A friend bought a champion greyhound for a lot of money. Before every race he fed it 6 Mars bars and it went in a few races as the favorite and then the odds widened after that. When the odds were high the dog was set up to win and he hit the market hard"


I bet the odds did widen, the poor dog probably died. Giving chocolate to a dog or any animal is like poisoning it. Their bodies cannot digest chocolate and it becomes poison to an animal and will kill it. your freind doesnt seem to be be very bright , or maybe he is just greedy beyond stupidity and doesnt care about the animal!
 
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