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Day Trading is a pipedream.
- Thread starter guy990opl
- Start date
Quote from guy990opl:
You on the other hand figured it all out, especially when you day trade with a small account while having payments and family to support.
actually, no, there's tons i DON'T know about trading. i'm learning more all the time.
and that's the difference between you and me. i know there's a ton that i have to learn. you keep making asinine assumptions that are wrong, but stating them as fact.
btw, since there was an implicit accusation - my family and payments were NEVER in doubt. i would have quit trading if they were.
To gaj:
oh no, they are facts: You and people like you are against Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and the biggest institutions around.
As you try to reach for the gold your little fingers get chopped.
Here is an example: Automated Trading Desk among the other things is able to trade algorithms on news. Do you know what it means ?
By the time you read the news it is too late.
ATD and others trade in milliseconds 200 millions shares per day.
Citigroup Inc. (C.N) said on Monday it agreed to buy closely held Automated Trading Desk LLC for $680 million to increase its ability to allow clients worldwide to trade stocks electronically.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0233485120070702
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithmic_trading
Who is making asinine assumptions ?
oh no, they are facts: You and people like you are against Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and the biggest institutions around.
As you try to reach for the gold your little fingers get chopped.
Here is an example: Automated Trading Desk among the other things is able to trade algorithms on news. Do you know what it means ?
By the time you read the news it is too late.
ATD and others trade in milliseconds 200 millions shares per day.
Citigroup Inc. (C.N) said on Monday it agreed to buy closely held Automated Trading Desk LLC for $680 million to increase its ability to allow clients worldwide to trade stocks electronically.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0233485120070702
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithmic_trading
Who is making asinine assumptions ?
Quote from guy990opl:
Who is making asinine assumptions ?
that would be you. the thread's title is "day trading is a pipedream".
i've done it, others do it as well.
anyhow, i'm off to the city. it's my day off, and i'm going to enjoy it. if you wish to keep believing that no one can daytrade, go right ahead.
Quote from guy990opl:
5, 7, 10 years or more. No one can be lucky for 10 years, but one could be for a few years.
If you can make 100% return with the risk to lose it all, go for it, but I tend to doubt you will be in the game for a long time. Making a lot of money to lose it all in the end, is nothing to brag about.
There is more...if one has 5k the pressure is less, maybe one is willing to lose it to make 10k. Now let's say one has 100k it is a totally different story.
That's where the pressure plus the consistency comes in. Part of day trading, correct me if I am wrong, is to predict where the market is going to go next. One can make his prediction with a discretionary o systematic approach, maybe a bit of both.
Your trade/prediction has to do well right away. Basically you go long because you think that briefly after you enter the trade, it will go up or short because briefly after you place your trade it should go down. Pretty arrogant, don't you think ?
Most people could make an accurate prediction, or several correct predictions, but for how long ?
Ideally the good trades outnumber the bad trades, but if the bad trades make you lose a big chunk or all your account, sounds like gambling.
If trying to predict the market equals trading, You'll be winning a little here and then losing some overthere. It doesn't matter what frequency you choose. You won't be able to make it . It doesn't matter if you're a daytrader or a long term investor, the results are the same. The following is a typical case - you have a tight money management but your "system" is crappy - Money management will keep you afloat for a while but it won't make a losing "system" a profitable one. You're just wasting your time. I won't go to the"account busters" - those with 100k capital blown out in a matter of weeks - we know them already. Also, I won't touch under- capitalization, leverage etc. I think we're adults here, right?
If you're going to have a fixation on consistency/making money, Have my word, you won't make it on this business. Period.
Consistency/making money, is the end result of your improved ability on reading the markets and act accordingly. Same rule applies doesn't matter if you're a daytrader or not. That, my friend, takes time, especially if you're a newbie. In this business, you can't have the meat without chewing the bone first. Learn the craft first and then we can talk money.
The business of trading is nothing more than trying asses crowd behavior. Is not just predicting, you need to have a pulse of what's going on. Is not just the"why " or how" but to be able to react(or not) on market changes and go with the flow. I am speaking on the technical side, although you need to be aware of major news.
Here's some problems I've seen on that traders generally speaking - there should more but here's the one's I have on the top of my head now"
Not just the lure for riches a downfall for daytraders(especially newbies), but this "buy when the candle touch the bollinger bands" stuff - or buy when MACD is crossing up/down. This is really where daytraders get burned. I am not banning indicators here, but in top of everything you must know the unique characteristics of the market you're intending to trade. You must know how it reacts at opening, at closing, if there's any "sleeping time" , how trades overnigth etc.
You need to observe the market and make sure if you're comfortable trading on a particular range/volatility - or lack of.
Can you read your market? Do you know what's going on? can you track momentum/lack of? Can you see a common - repetitive behavior in the market that you can capitalize upon? is there any particular sensitive area/level/price etc.? If you can't answer this simple questions, then my friend you have no business whatsoever trading.
If you can't read the market your trading anymore - simply - SWICTH..
Another problems I've seen on daytraders.
Trading price action - with all respect, 99% of traders confuse reading price with reading candlesticks/pinbars etc. Sorry but I must disagree. Although candlesticks/pinbars are good, that is NOT reading price. Price action is simply the reaction on the market when it gets to xxxx level/price/area. It is price action because there should be a reaction(or a lack of) on that particular price/area/pivot ect.
Back 30 something years ago, you didn't have the luxury of charts. You were thrown in the NYSE floor (or any futures floor) with a broken pencil, and a 3x3 pink sheet of paper and your only "indicators" were price, pivot points and support and resistance areas . I tell you, those guys were making money on tick reading.
Later WSJ had the sheets printed with PP - R1 - S1 - remember??
well, enough of history lesson.
This is just my point of view on the subject. I will stay now on the sidelines, with all respect I am not interested in a pissing match with anyone here.
PD: somebody should start a thread on the most common pissing matches here on ET - you know, the Jack hershey' s etc - they're fun to watch..
Back to my cave.
Thanks.
Quote from feb2865:
If trying to predict the market equals trading, You'll be winning a little here and then losing some overthere. It doesn't matter what frequency you choose. You won't be able to make it . It doesn't matter if you're a daytrader or a long term investor, the results are the same. The following is a typical case - you have a tight money management but your "system" is crappy - Money management will keep you afloat for a while but it won't make a losing "system" a profitable one. You're just wasting your time. I won't go to the"account busters" - those with 100k capital blown out in a matter of weeks - we know them already. Also, I won't touch under- capitalization, leverage etc. I think we're adults here, right?
If you're going to have a fixation on consistency/making money, Have my word, you won't make it on this business. Period.
Consistency/making money, is the end result of your improved ability on reading the markets and act accordingly. Same rule applies doesn't matter if you're a daytrader or not. That, my friend, takes time, especially if you're a newbie. In this business, you can't have the meat without chewing the bone first. Learn the craft first and then we can talk money.
The business of trading is nothing more than trying asses crowd behavior. Is not just predicting, you need to have a pulse of what's going on. Is not just the"why " or how" but to be able to react(or not) on market changes and go with the flow. I am speaking on the technical side, although you need to be aware of major news.
Here's some problems I've seen on that traders generally speaking - there should more but here's the one's I have on the top of my head now"
Not just the lure for riches a downfall for daytraders(especially newbies), but this "buy when the candle touch the bollinger bands" stuff - or buy when MACD is crossing up/down. This is really where daytraders get burned. I am not banning indicators here, but in top of everything you must know the unique characteristics of the market you're intending to trade. You must know how it reacts at opening, at closing, if there's any "sleeping time" , how trades overnigth etc.
You need to observe the market and make sure if you're comfortable trading on a particular range/volatility - or lack of.
Can you read your market? Do you know what's going on? can you track momentum/lack of? Can you see a common - repetitive behavior in the market that you can capitalize upon? is there any particular sensitive area/level/price etc.? If you can't answer this simple questions, then my friend you have no business whatsoever trading.
If you can't read the market your trading anymore - simply - SWICTH..
Another problems I've seen on daytraders.
Trading price action - with all respect, 99% of traders confuse reading price with reading candlesticks/pinbars etc. Sorry but I must disagree. Although candlesticks/pinbars are good, that is NOT reading price. Price action is simply the reaction on the market when it gets to xxxx level/price/area. It is price action because there should be a reaction(or a lack of) on that particular price/area/pivot ect.
Back 30 something years ago, you didn't have the luxury of charts. You were thrown in the NYSE floor (or any futures floor) with a broken pencil, and a 3x3 pink sheet of paper and your only "indicators" were price, pivot points and support and resistance areas . I tell you, those guys were making money on tick reading.
Later WSJ had the sheets printed with PP - R1 - S1 - remember??
well, enough of history lesson.
This is just my point of view on the subject. I will stay now on the sidelines, with all respect I am not interested in a pissing match with anyone here.
PD: somebody should start a thread on the most common pissing matches here on ET - you know, the Jack hershey' s etc - they're fun to watch..
Back to my cave.
Thanks.
Very sound advice. The problem with ET is there are just enough dingbats floating around to cause confusion for those just starting out. A while back, one poster even had the stupidity to state that "tape-reading" was no longer useful. It can get quite comical at times.
Quote from pairsarbtooo:
What are you a fucking moron? You can have 10K in a leveraged account and trade with 300,000 to 400,000k buying power each and every day. You don't agree because you have limited knowledge.
Good professional traders understand how to use buying power and limit risk. This isn't fucking INVESTING. I am never lack for finding morons like this guy who have no idea what real trading is about and continue to link performance to returns on equity. In trading, its all about returns on buying power.
You are a complete dumbass. Trading is equity invariant as long as you cover your fees. Fuck man, think. Tired of dumbass morons on this site attempting to say you need X amount of dollars to trade profitably or even successfully.
Classic... your advice here is for new traders to start with a $10k account, trade at 40:1 leverage "each and every day," and head to Vegas if they need more cash.
And I'm the moron.
...LOL
Quote from feb2865:
If trying to predict the market equals trading, You'll be winning a little here and then losing some overthere. It doesn't matter what frequency you choose. You won't be able to make it . It doesn't matter if you're a daytrader or a long term investor, the results are the same. The following is a typical case - you have a tight money management but your "system" is crappy - Money management will keep you afloat for a while but it won't make a losing "system" a profitable one. You're just wasting your time. I won't go to the"account busters" - those with 100k capital blown out in a matter of weeks - we know them already. Also, I won't touch under- capitalization, leverage etc. I think we're adults here, right?
Obviously if your money management is crappy then yes it does not matter but...
if you are going to predict, frequency does make a difference. Someone "predicts" that IBM will go up in the next 2 min and someone predicts it goes up in the next 2 years. The longer the time frame the better the chances, don't you think ?
AND another thing there are also trading strategies that do NOT attempt to predict the maket in any time frame. Trend Following for instance does not, and trend followers have been in the game for 30+ years.
If you're going to have a fixation on consistency/making money, Have my word, you won't make it on this business. Period.
That's your opinion, but if your goal is not to be able to make money on a consistent basis why bother ? There are people who have been consistent for many many years. They are not day traders. In my opinion the very opposite is true, unless one can not become consistent one can not make it in this business.
Consistency/making money, is the end result of your improved ability on reading the markets and act accordingly. Same rule applies doesn't matter if you're a daytrader or not. That, my friend, takes time, especially if you're a newbie. In this business, you can't have the meat without chewing the bone first. Learn the craft first and then we can talk money.
Certainly there is a learning curve and it takes time to become good, but day traders unless thay have some sort of system/automation among the other things are the first to burn out. Psycologically and financially. Others trading styles give better chances to survive, that of course does not mean they are going to make it.
The business of trading is nothing more than trying asses crowd behavior. Is not just predicting, you need to have a pulse of what's going on. Is not just the"why " or how" but to be able to react(or not) on market changes and go with the flow. I am speaking on the technical side, although you need to be aware of major news.
In other words the business of trading is hard, but isn't it hardER the moment one tries to do it in a few minutes or hours, especially when there are automated systems runned by big institutions designed to "smell humans" ?
Here's some problems I've seen on that traders generally speaking - there should more but here's the one's I have on the top of my head now"
Not just the lure for riches a downfall for daytraders(especially newbies), but this "buy when the candle touch the bollinger bands" stuff - or buy when MACD is crossing up/down. This is really where daytraders get burned. I am not banning indicators here, but in top of everything you must know the unique characteristics of the market you're intending to trade. You must know how it reacts at opening, at closing, if there's any "sleeping time" , how trades overnigth etc.
You need to observe the market and make sure if you're comfortable trading on a particular range/volatility - or lack of.
Can you read your market? Do you know what's going on? can you track momentum/lack of? Can you see a common - repetitive behavior in the market that you can capitalize upon? is there any particular sensitive area/level/price etc.? If you can't answer this simple questions, then my friend you have no business whatsoever trading.
All the things you mentioned are automated by big institutions. That's why in my opinion I do not see any edge in the retail day trader. I hope I am wrong.
If you can't read the market your trading anymore - simply - SWICTH..
Another problems I've seen on daytraders.
Trading price action - with all respect, 99% of traders confuse reading price with reading candlesticks/pinbars etc. Sorry but I must disagree. Although candlesticks/pinbars are good, that is NOT reading price. Price action is simply the reaction on the market when it gets to xxxx level/price/area. It is price action because there should be a reaction(or a lack of) on that particular price/area/pivot ect.
Back 30 something years ago, you didn't have the luxury of charts. You were thrown in the NYSE floor (or any futures floor) with a broken pencil, and a 3x3 pink sheet of paper and your only "indicators" were price, pivot points and support and resistance areas . I tell you, those guys were making money on tick reading.
Later WSJ had the sheets printed with PP - R1 - S1 - remember??
Again, "price action" etc is already all automated by very smart people with a lot of capital, resources and info that is only available to them. They are now able to use algorithms for financial reports, news etc.
The moment the retail day trader reads the news is too late and he still didn't even traded on the news or financial report.
If a day trader does not use a system he will lose all his money and burn. If the day trader strategy is based on judgment he will never outperform a mechanical approach over the LONG term. Emotions will get him at the most critical market periods, unlike a mechanical method ... no emotion.
well, enough of history lesson.
This is just my point of view on the subject. I will stay now on the sidelines, with all respect I am not interested in a pissing match with anyone here.
Thank You for your reply, not trying to piss anyone here, although I might have. It is just interesting how even you in making astute observations about day trading discount how essential consistency is. It is a word that 99% of day traders hate, why do you think that is ?
PD: somebody should start a thread on the most common pissing matches here on ET - you know, the Jack hershey' s etc - they're fun to watch..
Back to my cave.
Thanks.
Quote from guy990opl:
oh no, they are facts: You and people like you are against Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and the biggest institutions around.
As you try to reach for the gold your little fingers get chopped.
Here is an example: Automated Trading Desk among the other things is able to trade algorithms on news. Do you know what it means ?
By the time you read the news it is too late.
ATD and others trade in milliseconds 200 millions shares per day.
Citigroup Inc. (C.N) said on Monday it agreed to buy closely held Automated Trading Desk LLC for $680 million to increase its ability to allow clients worldwide to trade stocks electronically.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0233485120070702
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithmic_trading
Who is making asinine assumptions ?
As far as trading against Goldman etc. -- so what? They're buying size and as a small trader I can get in and out with much smaller trades before they buy (or sell) 500K shares of whatever.
As far as ATD -- they're right down the street from me. And I think you're a bit misinformed about what they do. All kinds of trades go through them.
When an investor sells shares of stock through a Web site such as E*Trade or Ameritrade, there is about a 1 in 10 chance that the online broker will route the order to ATD's banks of computers off Johnnie Dodds Boulevard. Using complex equations to crunch thousands of statistics and variables, the machines decide in a fraction of a second whether they can buy the stock and sell it a few seconds later for at least a fraction of a cent more.
Often, ATD's computers pass and simply match the order up with a buyer on the open market. Sometimes they buy the stock and lose money on it. But this version of cyber-arbitrage usually pays off in pennies or, more often, tiny slivers of pennies.
I could care less if they can make 1/2 cent off of my trade. What's important to me is if I made a profit.
Your apparent mindset that individual traders are chasing a dream is flawed. I started full time in March 1996. Trading has been my sole source of income since then. I've done well enough that I take 2-3 afternoons off each week to work with some inner city disadvantaged kids in math after school. Just as I was a competent and successful engineer prior to trading if one works hard they can succeed with trading. You guys with a negative perspective have much less chance of success given the focus of how/why people fail.