Are the vast majority of intraday forex moves random?If yes , can money be made from random moves ?Is it easy?Can money be made without an edge in a random market?
The only real trends in forex are related to interest rate expectations, and these are traded nicely in swing trading and often last weeks.
The pattern below repeats itself many times daily.We as humans see trends where none exist.The vast majority of intraday moves are random , there are no real trends.
A)Bank traders are aware of order flow, they front run their order flow and push prices
B) They input client orders , they had front run , it pushes prices higher, retailers join the trend , the bank traders sell and knock out all the stops , sending prices lower.Day trader loses.
c)Price comes down retail trader buys , price keeps dropping and dropping and trader blows out.The odds of success are against buying against price direction.
Finding an edge in random markets.
If markets were random you could not make money trading.You need an edge to make money from day trading.The big boys have the edge .
http://www.smbtraining.com/blog/finding-an-edge-in-random-markets
Day Trading Is for Suckers
http://www.slate.com/id/1003329/
Day trading is predicated on a fundamental misconception about the nature of prices, namely that they are somehow persistent and predictable. Now, some interesting academic studies in recent years have called into question the idea that stock prices move only in a pure random walk (i.e., they're as likely to go up as go down at any one moment). But the walk is effectively random, in the sense that patterns are incredibly hard to discern and basically impossible to take advantage of with any regularity. In order to succeed as a day trader over time, you have to be one thing: incredibly lucky.
Why do Forex prices move randomly?
http://www.stocktrendsystem.com/trading/forex.html
Most of the time currency quotes are purely driven by real demand and supply transforming the uncoordinated arrivals of buy and sell orders into a noisy chart looking like the ones of dull stocks. With real demand and supply I mean payments that have to be made as part of something real like physical trades of goods, sales of services or economical transactions of the government. Contrasting to that is speculative trading or price manipulation with the intent to rewind the money shifting later. But there are of course intermediate phases of regular price behavior.
