Your wrong about 4 - 5 times trend setups fail. I would say 70% of trend setups work. Its just you don't know what a trend setup is.
1) You need to define a trend.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trend_lines_(technical_analysis)
This is a good definition.
2) You then need to define a setup. A setup is a high probability trade based on experience, back testing, or forward testing. When I say high probability, it means more than 50% this setup should produce a profit.
Now lets look at your next theory that there is too much bad news during the day.
1) Use a professional news service. Many use briefing.com, I used CNBC Pro today when I traded. There was actually only good news today and the market was trending up. I took a real trend trade, and made a profit.
2) You do need to use the market to confirm reality. A good or bad news report can come out, and the market will be trending in the opposite direction, so price matters more than these reports, but I have found these reports help with my bias for the day.
Now lets look at your other thought, should I trade breakouts or should I trade with the overall direction of the day. Or should I trade swing trades based on higher time frames.
1) This is really what I call developing a trading strategy or edge. Yes, all trade setups even those with edge have losses. No matter what time frame you choose to trade, you will have a losing trade. During the day, I have seen price move more than stocks I have held for months at a time, so for me trading, I rather do it during the day based on my setups.
Now lets look at solutions:
1) Decide what type of trades you want to take for example swing, position, scalp, and what time frames you want to trade.
2) Find a trade setup that you want to use, either by looking over charts for patterns, watching the market during the day, having a mentor, paying for a trade course, buying a book, reading over threads here at ET.
3) Test the setup over time keeping a Journal or Excel spreadsheet. For a long time I kept an Excel spreadsheet, it had why I took the trade, did I win, did I lose, summary, was I making the same mistakes.
I have found that sometimes taking winning trades is against human nature.
4) Setup some trade management rules with stops and profit targets.
5) Create your own rules of trading. For me this is a Word document that lists my setups and includes some charts which illustrate winning trades based on those setups for my review. Last week I saw I was making the same stupid mistake, and I corrected it, so Fri, Mon, and Tue based on this new rule which I wrote in my document, I have had 3 good days in a row.
I hope this is helpful to you. Remember it takes a long time to start trading correctly and to stop making mistakes.
1) You need to define a trend.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trend_lines_(technical_analysis)
This is a good definition.
2) You then need to define a setup. A setup is a high probability trade based on experience, back testing, or forward testing. When I say high probability, it means more than 50% this setup should produce a profit.
Now lets look at your next theory that there is too much bad news during the day.
1) Use a professional news service. Many use briefing.com, I used CNBC Pro today when I traded. There was actually only good news today and the market was trending up. I took a real trend trade, and made a profit.
2) You do need to use the market to confirm reality. A good or bad news report can come out, and the market will be trending in the opposite direction, so price matters more than these reports, but I have found these reports help with my bias for the day.
Now lets look at your other thought, should I trade breakouts or should I trade with the overall direction of the day. Or should I trade swing trades based on higher time frames.
1) This is really what I call developing a trading strategy or edge. Yes, all trade setups even those with edge have losses. No matter what time frame you choose to trade, you will have a losing trade. During the day, I have seen price move more than stocks I have held for months at a time, so for me trading, I rather do it during the day based on my setups.
Now lets look at solutions:
1) Decide what type of trades you want to take for example swing, position, scalp, and what time frames you want to trade.
2) Find a trade setup that you want to use, either by looking over charts for patterns, watching the market during the day, having a mentor, paying for a trade course, buying a book, reading over threads here at ET.
3) Test the setup over time keeping a Journal or Excel spreadsheet. For a long time I kept an Excel spreadsheet, it had why I took the trade, did I win, did I lose, summary, was I making the same mistakes.
I have found that sometimes taking winning trades is against human nature.
4) Setup some trade management rules with stops and profit targets.
5) Create your own rules of trading. For me this is a Word document that lists my setups and includes some charts which illustrate winning trades based on those setups for my review. Last week I saw I was making the same stupid mistake, and I corrected it, so Fri, Mon, and Tue based on this new rule which I wrote in my document, I have had 3 good days in a row.
I hope this is helpful to you. Remember it takes a long time to start trading correctly and to stop making mistakes.
.