Day trading derivatives futures.

14 nov Natural gas signals

have to do post mortem so as to keep my mind sharp.


543p up
637p up again
656p up again
I wonder whether the Europeans or Americans are trading.


these are signals after the very strong decisive up movement :
821p up
833p down
906p down
930p down
936p down
939p up
1000p down
1005p down
1050p up
1056p up
1110p up


of course I didn't catch all these signals and I stepped on quite a few land mines.
I am sure there will be more signals after 1110p.

Human mind / emotion analysis :
around 530p, there were indications that price were going to go up.
however, no one knew how far the price would go up.

after 752p, price already went up super high.
many people missed the boat and were very desperate to buy resulting in very hugh bid offer spread and very long candlesticks.
price continue to go up.

after 801p, price started to go down.
but the bulls still wanted to buy and those who had longed earlier wanted to take profit resulting in very messy movement.
during this time, market was not tradable.

after 815p, bid offer spread narrowed. and market became tradable.
and the bulls and bears continue to fight resulting in many ups and downs signals.

time to watch netflix.
 
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16 nov Eur session

Natural Gas highly tradable.
went up during Asian session.
Let see what the europeans are going to do with NG.


NG now price at 4.065 ie only 4 digits.

worst of worst is Japanese yen.
now price at 0. 00 88 4 50 ie 8 digits !!!
totally not suitable for old people like me to trade.
perhaps it is designed for young traders.

perhaps they should change it to 8.8450 /K or
better still 8.845 / K (ie 4 digits)
anyway I rarely touch yen because its day range has been rather minuscule
 
17 Nov Natural Gas post mortem analysis

Day 3 after 14 Nov dominant candle.

day 3 day range 480 ticks.

But since the market swinged up and down 5 times,
effective day range is
300 + 300 + 400 + 200 + 300 = 1500 ticks
Next few days, day range will continue to shrink.

1. uptrend
up @ 851a
up again @ 1137a but this signal was not obvious

2. downtrend
down @143p
down again @438p

3. uptrend
up @853p
up again @913p
up again @1034p
up again @1058p but this signal was not obvious
up again @1101p

4. downtrend
down @1222a

5. uptrend
up @ 324a


definitely I didn't catch all these signals, and I stepped on quite a few land mines.

How to increase odd of catching good signals ?
- have to concentrate. we never know when signal is coming
- mind must be agile to look out for continuation and reversal signals.
- when market is moving rapidly, use market order immediately.
chase after the market if necessary but do it very very fast
- when you miss the signal, use limit order and hope price will come back to you.
- I didn't see any need to use stop order for order entry
- only enter when chart pattern is very clear and obvious


How to avoid stepping on land mines?
when chart pattern is unclear, messy, erratic, don't trade
If you miss a signal, next signal carries higher risk.
either trade with reduced quantity, or don't trade.



On 17 Nov, ES YM NQ had rather similar pattern.
it has 6 swings. day range was big but there were lots of land mines.


______________
 
23 Nov Natural gas trading

14 Nov day 1, day range 900 ticks
.
.
.
22 Nov day 7, day range 400 ticks. massive down movement during Eur session.
23 Nov day 8, day range 400 ticks too ?

day range still very healthy.

There was a up signal at 1.58pm.
I set the alarm but my speaker was muted. luckily I was around to pull the trigger.
let's see how high it will go.
 
23 Nov Natural gas post mortum


14 Nov day 1, day range 900 ticks
.
.
.
22 Nov day 7, day range 400 ticks. massive down movement during Eur session.
23 Nov day 8, day range 340 ticks

signals :
1. UP
158p up

2. DOWN
237p reverse down to where it came from


3. UP
947p up. but there were some fake signals before that
1036p up again during US session

4. DOWN
1250a reverse down to where it came from.

there were also many other not obvious signals
and there were also many land mines.
 
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26 Nov US session

what happened so far ...

NQ, Taiwan Index, India Nifty, Hangseng long blue candle

dax eur gbp gold copper all refused to move.

Italy bond BTP long blue candle

Last Fri Crude oil long red candle

Natural Gas gapped down 240 ticks during opening.
I will probably skip trading NG.

come US session, NQ and crude oil price might continue to move in same direction, reverse, or refuse to move.
 
27 nov eur session

NQ what happened at 231p? price went up.

then price reverse down.
wonder what is happening.

for such market, have to chase after the market and don't care how bad the price is.

hmmm. Natural gas going up. straight forward clear signal.
 
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27 Nov results so far ...

number of signals during 1/2 half Asian session : 7

number of signals during 2nd half Asian, and 1st half Eur session : 6

yesterday only 2 pathetic signals during US session.
let's see if it will improve.

hmm. Natural gas has found its comfort zone.
 
27 Nov signals summary.

number of signals during first half Asian session : 7

number of signals during 2nd half Asian, and 1st half Eur session : 6

number of signals during 2nd half Eur session, and 1st half US session : 9
that is major improvement !

Also about half of these signals are REVERSAL signals !
 
29 Nov Eur session

most futures sleeping / resting as they already moved yesterday.

crude oil - down signal @ 435p. straight forward chart pattern.
now price below $50.
GBP trying to follow crude oil?

Natural gas - very long candle and bid offer spread could be > 10 ticks.
are the machines or humans trading NG ?
no point trading NG .

Germany buxl - is it going to reverse down later?
 
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