Day trading derivatives futures.

[Handle123]

These are the situation which I considered higher risk :

- 2nd signal of trend continuation
- If previous day candle is long, today trading is of higher risk
- perhaps trend reversal
- violent spiky moving market

because of higher risk, I'd reduce trade quantity.

I once had 23 losing trades in a row in different markets, at no time did I think any were higher risk or any have higher chance of being profitable, at no time did any of my back testing show I could lose this often. But what I did learn from the experience, I didn't ask my back testing procedures enough questions, would not have changed anything I had done in making the system though, but I had not tested it over enough data, was only ten years of daily data. On the 24th trade was coffee and made three times the loss.

I understand where you would get your thinking of next trade have more risk, but I believe the first trade is more iffy than the 2nd, even confirmed trends can change trend and we get tagged for a loss, this is where the blunt of my losses in day trading happens but not longer term commodities as that system has very small win rate, but this ok cause been trading it this way for nearly 27 years, it is amazing how one would be ok with a system that seldom wins overall, but hedging allows me to make profits on losing trades, far greater than losing.

If previous day has extended daily range, I expect next day be more of tighter range and chop, so my automation would know my parameters for trading chop, but even though I have bias, automation does not, rather have it trade neutral as there been several follow through sessions.

I like the spikey rocketship patterns, steeper the price movement, faster it reverses and sometimes get lucky on the runners, no attempt of secondary bottom or top made(right shoulder), these often hand me nice scalps and occasion movement of a new trend getting in near the bottoms/tops for several points.

Only way size reduced for me is time of the day and how full the dome, first couple hours in ES, can get just about anything filled without fear of huge slippage on the getting out for me. I based all systems on the getting out to come up with size to put in. And some markets just don't even consider day trading like OJ and Lumber, but hourly is ok providing can hedge it somehow. Actually have to use stock options if that underlying has same pattern of optionless commodities.

I hope your scratch trades means you making one tick on them and letting someone else pay for you "ride". Fees really adds up.

I like reading your thread, good trading to you.

 

[maxinger]

I once had 23 losing trades in a row in different markets, at no time did I think any were higher risk or any have higher chance of being profitable, at no time did any of my back testing show I could lose this often. But what I did learn from the experience, I didn't ask my back testing procedures enough questions, would not have changed anything I had done in making the system though, but I had not tested it over enough data, was only ten years of daily data. On the 24th trade was coffee and made three times the loss.

I understand where you would get your thinking of next trade have more risk, but I believe the first trade is more iffy than the 2nd, even confirmed trends can change trend and we get tagged for a loss, this is where the blunt of my losses in day trading happens but not longer term commodities as that system has very small win rate, but this ok cause been trading it this way for nearly 27 years, it is amazing how one would be ok with a system that seldom wins overall, but hedging allows me to make profits on losing trades, far greater than losing.

If previous day has extended daily range, I expect next day be more of tighter range and chop, so my automation would know my parameters for trading chop, but even though I have bias, automation does not, rather have it trade neutral as there been several follow through sessions.

I like the spikey rocketship patterns, steeper the price movement, faster it reverses and sometimes get lucky on the runners, no attempt of secondary bottom or top made(right shoulder), these often hand me nice scalps and occasion movement of a new trend getting in near the bottoms/tops for several points.

Only way size reduced for me is time of the day and how full the dome, first couple hours in ES, can get just about anything filled without fear of huge slippage on the getting out for me. I based all systems on the getting out to come up with size to put in. And some markets just don't even consider day trading like OJ and Lumber, but hourly is ok providing can hedge it somehow. Actually have to use stock options if that underlying has same pattern of optionless commodities.

I hope your scratch trades means you making one tick on them and letting someone else pay for you "ride". Fees really adds up.

I like reading your thread, good trading to you.

just finished watching Netflix program.
ha! you are rather wordy. I don't full comprehend what u said due to your rather complex english but I can roughly understand what's in your mind as we are traders.

we traders are on high alert to catch the big fish. signal might come during early part of session, or later part of session.
occassionally big boys are themselves rather confused and that's where trading become rather difficult.

big boys reacted very efficiently and rapidly to major event / news. and that's where we traders have to be on high alert. Occassionally big boys reacted before major events / news and that's where we'd better follow the big boys.


all the best to you mister.

 

[Handle123]

just finished watching Netflix program.
ha! you are rather wordy. I don't full comprehend what u said due to your rather complex english but I can roughly understand what's in your mind as we are traders.

we traders are on high alert to catch the big fish. signal might come during early part of session, or later part of session.
occassionally big boys are themselves rather confused and that's where trading become rather difficult.

big boys reacted very efficiently and rapidly to major event / news. and that's where we traders have to be on high alert. Occassionally big boys reacted before major events / news and that's where we'd better follow the big boys.


all the best to you mister.

Am sorry, I was not a where English is second language?
I am mainly a scalper of ES, but have automation in completed systems of other methods, time frames and some many symbols seeking dozens of patterns or only one.
Catching big fish for me in only in long term commodities and stocks.
Scalping are for ticks, though I do have runners, I mostly go for 1-3 ticks.
News events done by automation and 2 seconds after reports it is seeking patterns by the tick. I have developed my systems based on much larger traders and hedge funds, volume is king. I often study two tick charts.

 

[maxinger]

These are the things that are certain in life and will surely happen.

Everyday the Sun will rise.
Everyday there will be at least 10 good signals for trading.
It is up to us to Detect and Take it.


9 oct quick summary

asian session
Hangseng had wide day range. market swinged up and down

Eur session
star performer was Italy btp.
It went down initially.
Then reverse up significantly due to whatever reason.

US session
star performer was NQ and copper.
It appears that copper touched the support, then price went up significantly.

some futures were very untradable very spiky. these are
IN Nifty, crude oil. Look at the charts;very messy, very untidy and ugly.
very easy to lose money trading these.
sigh ... I told myself NOT to touch crude oil but I went to touch it.
Most likely Heating Oil and RB gasoline were leads, and crude oil laggard.
Luckily I didn't touch IN Nifty.

 

[maxinger]

11 oct Asian session

what happened so far ...


Hangseng up 915a
Hangseng up again 942a
Hangseng reverse down 1020a
IN Nifty up 1213p

Hangseng down 303p
NQ down 323p
Germany buxl down 402p
Italy btp up 418p (2nd day up)

NQ down 802p <<< first mega Tsunami wave
fgbx down again 832p
NQ down agaain 830p
ES down 934p
oil down 954p (probably due to index futures)
NQ down again 230a (but this signal was not obvious) <<< 2nd mega Tsunami wave
ZB up 330a ( index down ZB up ?!?!?!?)




first and 2nd mega tsunami waves about same size.

How to predict when tsunami wave is coming?
Use crystal ball to predict.
Alternatively, let's say you are trading with 9 lots.
first 3 lots target profit at reward risk ratio of 3.
next 3 lots target profit at RR of say 5.
next 3 lots hold position for many many hours.


so what to do next ?
Asian markets will surely gap alot. and big boys, investors would be very confused making trading difficult. very easy to lose money during first half hour.
As of now, NQ is directionaless.

also mentally prepare for next mega Tsunami up, Tsunami down wave.
today might be non trading day. anyway be alert

 

[maxinger]

so how to day trade and short such market ?

for this situation,
use bigger volume chart.
double your stop loss because candles were longer,
catch 1st signal. if not 2nd signal at most which was around US opening time.
If you miss these signals, then it is virtually impossible to earn money.

today Asian session.
better don't trade. very easy to lose money because big boys are confused / shocked. time for my morning exercise.

 

[maxinger]

11 oct Mid & end asian session

ok. back from long break.

signals so far :
Taiwan index down 847a (but this signal is not obvious. it broke the 380 support level decisively) <<<superstar performer
Nikkei down 927a
NQ down 928a (but this signal is not obvious. down due to Nikkei)<<<superstar performer.

NQ reverse up 1013a (look at its spiky sharp long candle. if you are not careful,
you will get seriously injured ).
crude oil also down but is probably a laggard.


NQ appears to be resting. Perhaps it is waiting for Europeans to wake up.


The rest of the markets are untradable.


Yesterday India Nifty was strong up due to whatever reason , then after RTH, it went down.
l think trading it might be challenging. Well. have to be alert for signals.

 

[maxinger]

11 oct end asian / Eur session

signals so far ..

IN Nifty up 1252p (this signal not obvious)
Germany Buxl up 200p ( sigh ... hardly any retracement. continuation from yesterday US movement)
NQ up 201p (seems like 6930 is a temporary support)
Italy btp up 222p ( day 3 up )
IN Nifty up again 223p

dax , gold, copper - thou shall not touch these.
crude oil - is it laggard?

 

[maxinger]

cont ....
today there might be > 30 signals


Germany buxl reverse down 241p
Italy btp reverse down 309p
Hang seng up 320p ( hmmm. those big boys like to move market before market close)
NQ Hangseng reverse down 345p ( Indeed they are good friends )

NQ 7040 temporary resistance level ?
NQ appears to have found its comfort zone.
Time for afternoon exercise.
Later let's see what Americans are going to do with NQ.

 

[maxinger]

11 oct US session

more signals ...
IN Nifty reverse down 442p
gold up 442p
NQ down again 501p

crude oil laggard?
copper - don't know where it is going.
dax - sleeping

US CPI news coming up. most likely market will be immune to such news.

NQ now ranging from 7040 to 6930. will it break out of range?
no idea.

so far ZB hardly move