Day Trading Crude without indicators.

Quote from vmaiya73:

First off would like to thank MfBreakout and others who have been posting on this board. I just recently saw Mark Fisher on CNBC and after doing som research came across his book and have just started reading it.

Just a quick question please. If Fisher states to use an opening range of say 20 minutes and he gives the A/C values for this opening range how do you adjust for if you want to go to a lower time frame like a 10 minute OR? How would you know what A/C values to use ?

Thanks and great posting !!
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A and C values are just reference numbers. They are calculated with 20 days of ATR. One trader can have A value of 15 ticks, another one can have 8 ticks. It really does not matter as long one uses one OR and same A and C values on a consistent basis.

Breakout traders use smaller time frame OR like 5 minutes and enough of A value to accommodate for volatility. I do not know what will be appropriate values will be for 5 minutes. You will have to test and see which one makes sense.

Mark Fisher recommended OR is 45 minutes from 8.30 to 9.15 am.
A value- 8 ticks , C = 13 ticks.

That's what i use.

However, within Fisher firm traders use all kinds of OR from 5 minutes to 30 minutes and in between. One has to find their own style.
 
christmas gift list for 2012.

going to be handing out one car long oil futures for xmas delivery.

shop early, miss the rush.........:)

cheers,

s
 

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friday grease.

retest of the euro session low of the day.

new short pendings filled and blown out at the long pin bar reversal

you are long to the 3 sisters exit door, top of ny session.

d
 

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@mfbreakout
I got so excite when, I saw that someone else is using ACD system and MP, those too books change my way to look at market completely specially on CL, however, I notice that your risk is really minimum and looking at your numbers, you don't have the B as your stop. My question is what you consider to determine your stops?........and also, what you consider for your entry point. I usually try to get in exactly on the A up or down, and if it just explode, I wait for retrace base on Fib numbers.

Thanks in advance

R) You will notice that i mostly get out with 40 ticks gains even though the move typically has another 40 ticks left in it. I risk 10 ticks, so 40 ticks is all i am looking for. There are many reasons for it. Main reason being CL mostly trade in a box about 70% of the time, it goes through lot of back and forth ( which i refer to as joy ride) before getting to the target. That means more holding time. At this stage of my skill set, I prefer shorter holding time and less joy ride.

2) I use 45 minutes OR. If i use point B as a stop loss , in most cases it will be a 60-100 ticks stop loss. I can not afford that. I do know of traders who use point B as stop loss and harvest 200 ticks of the move.

3) My entries and exits are based of a 5 minute buy/sell bar. I have attached chart of 01-13-2012 since i am going over my notes this morning. It was a down day for me.

I am basically using 5 minutes bar as exhaustion indicator around support and resistance. For example, in this chart when 5 minutes red bar shows up at support and then price just stays there for 3-5 minutes, i take long.

On the short side around 99 area, there was no bar to help as indicator. However keeping yesterday price action in mind, 30 days number line of -15 plus price just hanging in there for 10 minutes is all i need to put on a short. Stop loss of 10-20 ticks is all i need to see if this set up works.

4) On this day, there was nothing for breakout traders. Yesterday -01/12/2012 was a day for breakout traders. If they missed the moves yesterday and come looking for set ups today, they would have been disappointed. Yesterday was a $3 sell off day. A breakout trader who does not recognize that would have tough time. CONTEXT IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN ANYTHING ELSE.


MOST IMPORTANT: Mark Fisher method is a breakout method but i am not a breakout trader. Majority of my trades are not breakouts. Breakout traders should not be using a wide OR like i use a 45 minutes OR.

Breakout traders should be using smaller OR like 5 minutes etc. Traders who try to mix and trade different time frame OR like 5 minutes for breakout and 45 minutes for fades etc. will not succeed over a long period of time. One has to pick one style and stick with it and PRACTICE the hell out of the set ups.
 

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Quote from mfbreakout:

Traders who try to mix and trade different time frame OR like 5 minutes for breakout and 45 minutes for fades etc. will not succeed over a long period of time. One has to pick one style and stick with it and PRACTICE the hell out of the set ups.
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I plead guilty to this!

I am going to print this quote out and wallpaper my office with it.

Thank you :)
 
Using ACD for execution and Market Profile for CONTEXT. looking at 01-12-2012 market profile chart to trade 01-13-2012 with ACD.

CORRECTION:

Looks like i came up with new spelling for twitter on the chart (lol).
 

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Thanks for your help, and quick response,
I still have some questions and a little confusion, on the 5 bar explanation, I do not if you mind, but will love to chat with you through SKYPE, this is my user:
mrbochin23.

Once again thanks for your help.

.

5 minutes Volume bar exhaustion at support/resistance is ideal but we do not get them all the time. Plus what looks like support can be easily be broken and so on. Traders use better volume indicator to get clues, there are many other tools to get clues. Just clues as nothing is guarantee. Only guarantee is our stop loss.

So do not worry about 5 minutes exhaustion bar. I been testing it for some time and it will be difficult to explain.


Attached chart is an example where I did not get 5 minute exhaustion bar at 99.40 area and thus missed a low -risk long . Similarly, i did not get any clues if price will stall around 100.80. Only thing, i knew that I have an A down based off my OR and price seems to be stalling there, so shorts were in order.


NOTE: Overnight Asian session high and low, Euro session High and low , N.Y session high and low along with daily OR are the most important reference points in terms of support and resistance. I try to use overnight inventory ( which basically means if price is up or down during globex session in relation to prior day close) along with overall direction, sentiment of one to 2 weeks time period to take trades.

My biggest area of improvement over last year is to trade " EXPECTATIONS". For example, based of last week strong price action, based of trend , i expect price to clear $110.50 and then $114 and so on. Lets say on Monday we see price has cleared $110.50 during Globex session and opens around $111 but price action slows down and there is no follow through . I will short. Does not mean , I am expecting $2 down move. All it means price may go down some , may be 50 ticks , may be more and so on.
 

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