Day Trading Crude without indicators.

Final chart showing how price moved up.

NOTE: I got some questions traders looking at every level to the tick. All, I can say it is not HELPFUL. When one counts pennies, he gets pennies. One has to adjust stop loss on days when intra day move is $3 in one direction.
 

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02-07-2012 Market profile. Previous resistance of 98.40 became support for 3.5 hours . Re post of chart showing potential ticks in the box.

Looks too GOOD to be TRUE even after seeing this over and over again over a year.

That's why we do not go looking for trades but we try to recognize them when they appear.
 

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Market profile. Previous resistance of 98.40 became support for 3.5 hours.

NOTE: Some days these levels do not come into play at all. Best risk/reward set ups appear when these levels are taken out with VOLUME, otherwise trade small or sit on hands.

VOLUME means BIG MONEY is in the market and they are not interested in 40 ticks moves in one direction. When VOLUME is there, one should expect $ 2 and up move in one direction.
 

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Combining trend lines, channel breakout with ACD Opening Range (OR) along with Market Profile concepts gives more confidence.

NOTE: No discussion please whether CL is manipulated, will it crash? political impact etc.. We trade patterns, price action and that's all i want to FOCUS on.

Not much trading today for me. A good day to look over charts, notes and PLAN ahead.
 

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Quote from mfbreakout:

Combining trend lines, channel breakout with ACD Opening Range (OR) along with Market Profile concepts gives more confidence.

NOTE: No discussion please whether CL is manipulated, will it crash? political impact etc.. We trade patterns, price action and that's all i want to FOCUS on.

Not much trading today for me. A good day to look over charts, notes and PLAN ahead.
More...

Monthly chart and trend.
 

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Quote from mfbreakout:

Monthly chart and trend.
More...

daily chart. Time to pause or momentum is too STRONG ? I keep on thinking about -30 days number line.

30 days number line points to pullback. However, what did not happened is more important than what did happen per expectations.

There is a MAJOR problem with the bull scenario in WTI Crude Oil — the open interest story. There is currently a near record open interest of 1.29 million contracts.



The composition of this open interest represents a near all-time record short position by commercials and long position by the large speculator (including the funds).

Typically it does not pay to bet against the commercial interest in the futures market, especially when the commercial interest is so heavily slanted in one direction — but there are rare exceptions. So, while further gains in price are possible — even to the extent of the targets identified in this document — one must question where the additional buying will come from given the extended committment of the speculator at present. A close below last week’s low in Crude Oil could lead to cascading stops.
 

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DX and CL relationship. Just one of the variables among many.

I would like CL to be around $115 while DX is around 75 to short CL.
There are several other combinations of DX and CL in between.
 

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I do not trade Globex session as it is tough to read volume. I was going over some charts. CL came down to potential support , so decided to test it.


02-20-2012 Asian session long off 104.90 support. target 105.50 area
 

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