01-20-2012 OIL PIT CLOSE. Morning sell off and A down damage was too much to overcome.
Day Trading Crude without indicators.
- Thread starter mfbreakout
- Start date
It isn't a tool as such, any more than price is a tool. Your interpretation is what matters. The setup I mentioned, did you take that because you saw a "spike" in volume. You will notice that some of the exact high and low points have a spike of volume, and also that some points mid way through a leg which do not reverse also have a similar spike of volume.
So much like MP/POC, my question to you is how do you intend to refine further than "works until it doesn't" to your tools/analysis? Qualitatively this is similar to saying "trend until bend" or "long until short" so we need something more accurate to take net points from the market.
My question related to the importance of time. 15 minutes without a move in your favour ought to be enough in a market like oil. Are you entering too early and therefore needing to wait more than 15 minutes for price to move in your favour on most of your positions? 15 minutes of sideways shorting where you did told you the market wasn't going to sell from there.
Perhaps do some work on price and time and quantify some of what I am alluding to?
I was asking whether it was possible to know the destination in advance, before the level broke. It should occur that selling on a break of 100.40 provides two (potentially three problems).
1) this level "held" so many times before, how do you distinguish if it is still holding. Selling on stop at the prior low would have got you in short and wrong the prior two times it held. waiting for a confirmed breakout brings me to
2) selling anywhere 100.40 and below is far too late for this move. if you wait around for a confirmed break, you are selling when you see price hit 100.30 and getting filled....
3)at terrible prices if you're doing any more than a few contracts. not scalable.
Hence your use of volume studies, however without any work to quantify and test your hypothesis, what is "accordingly"?
I am happy with how I am currently trading and not really interested in looking at what is being flogged online. However, in terms of your trading I am interested in how you are applying the concepts and how you respond to some of my questions.
"I was asking whether it was possible to know the destination in advance, before the level broke."
R) There probably a way to know in advance but i do not. I am happy to keep shorting 100.74, 100.82, 100.84 and covering at 100.44 3 times while waiting for 100.40 to break. Once 100.40 breaks, i am happy to re short on bounce with a target of 99.50 to 99.20.
"I am happy with how I am currently trading and not really interested in looking at what is being flogged online".
R) I see you been a member of ET since may 2010 which is an online community. Start a journal/thread with your method. Once traders see what you are looking at, different angles/views will emerge.
15 minutes without a move in your favour ought to be enough in a market like oil
R) the way i trade, 15 minutes is immaterial. My short from 99.40 area on 01-20-2012 took 40 minutes to materialize. Lot of things come into play.
It looks like you trade crude oil. My best friend has 10 minutes time limit and he does well. There are different ways to trade.
If 15 minutes is too long for your style, i understand.
You instinct is correct. Good place to start. There is a way to know! How can it be known, and how does this give those who know an advantage?
I've asked the questions and got the answers necessary to achieve my objectives in trading. Now just a case of executing each day. I am not looking for input on my trading or to share details of how I trade.
This is interesting. Aside from your stop being hit (price), am I correct in interpreting that you will not make a decision to exit your trade within 15 minutes or longer since your entry, under any circumstances? Do you leave your screen with stop order in for 15 minutes after getting filled? Would it make a difference to your trading if you did? So the only trigger for you to get out is if the stop is hit, otherwise you will wait until the price moves either in your favour or hits your stop?
I find this interesting in the context of the short we are discussing. Assuming you short because you expect the price to fall. The condition which precedes a fall is absence of buying. The price still holding high in the market 15 minutes later does not indicate absence of buying. Therefore is not the initial reason for your trade invalidated? As speculators, we make a decision based on a hypothesis. If this hypothesis turns out to be invalid, our duty is to learn from this or at the lease minimise any losses. In such cases, a valid entry could have been executed, but the expected price development fails to materialise, indicating conditions are not as anticipated or have changed, and allowing the position to be taken out at a wash, and perhaps an opposite entry executed.
I appreciate what you are saying about different traders having different styles- all horses for courses really. From my perspective what I see is a lot of self imposed fetishes which distract from what, optimally, ought to be done. The style of the individual trader isn't relevant - the style of the market is key as that is the vehicle we use to make our gains. Should not the trader mirror the style of the market rather than insisting that the market adapt to the style of the trader?
I see a lot of comments like this:
"I can't sell the market at the top because I am a trend trader"
"I can't buy a continuation trade because the market is too high"
"I am a mean reversion trader so I don't use XYZ opportunities"
"I am a scalper so I don't believe you can predict more than a few minutes ahead"
"I am a swing trader and daytrading is just noise - I can't make sense of faster timelines so nobody else can"
"I trade a timeline to suit my personality"
"I can't concentrate on the market all day as I have a job, so I am a position trader"
"I don't know what will happen next so all I can control is my risk:reward ratio"
"I traded XYZ (instrument, timeframe, style) and I lost money so I don't want to trade like this again"
"Maybe I could make more points doing X, but I don't like X. X isn't my style. I know someone who does X but it doesn't suit my psychology"
I term these self imposed fetishes. Lets reflect on whether any of these beliefs are helpful in our problem solving exercise: taking the most points a market offers.
Sounds good. Please post your charts in the format i am trying to maintain this thread. Pre open, Mid day and close. If possible give source of your method so that it is easier to follow.
Same for all the other traders who have PM me.
This reply does not relate to the comments in the post you quoted.
What is the objective in asking others to post their charts and analysis. Is this thread not about your focusing on your own trading objectives? Any thoughts on the comments and questions I have contributed?
" Lets reflect on whether any of these beliefs are helpful in our problem solving exercise: taking the most points a market offers."
Discussion of those beliefs is not intent of my journal. I see that reflection on those beliefs is very constructive. Maybe there is a forum already there or someone can start one. I am sure it will help all of us.
I can only have discussion with someone when i know where they are coming from. That's the reason for asking for charts.
Your questions are good but you have lot of assumptions without knowing how i trade.
I have posted charts as much detail as possible. Now to have further conversation with you couple of things will help:
1) Either you have read mark Fisher book and we can have specific discussion about ACD.
2) You have some other trading method. We can only have discussion if i know the method.
I hope it make sense.
The way I trade TOS is fine. I agree their data is slow.
It's good to have a second account. So far fast data, I am looking into Advantage futures or Apex.
01-30-2012 Pre Open.
I get most of my levels from Fisher subscription service. Typically daily analysis is split into 2 categories. Helms is last name of the person who provide human discretionary analysis based on his experience.
Computer: This analysis pertains to analysis of historical patterns by a computer.
Mid day chart will be posted around 12 pm.
I get most of my levels from Fisher subscription service. Typically daily analysis is split into 2 categories. Helms is last name of the person who provide human discretionary analysis based on his experience.
Computer: This analysis pertains to analysis of historical patterns by a computer.
Mid day chart will be posted around 12 pm.