Day Trading Crude without indicators.

[Maverick74]

Quote from Frank Furter:

Hey Maverick,

I appreciate your input and for all you have shared on ET. I certainly am not claiming I have the answer, and I am always willing to question what I do. I was just pointing out something I see happening over and over again.

What I see quite often is that a failed a down / a up is often a headfake, and the previous day (or days) level is the gotcha leaning the wrong way point. That is why I always keep those on my radar.

While I type this, crude stopped to the tick of a daily level 3 days ago and provided roughly 40 ticks on that play.

Maybe the problem is that I am not truly playing by the exact ACD rules, so I guess I should not use A levels etc when I post.

Again, always willing to debate and question what I do. Love your work ... keep it up

Yes and that is precisely why that happens! Once a level works, it will have a tendency to keep working because if price failed there three days ago, everyone sees that. In general I don't like levels like that. Yes, they work, to a point. But there is no meaningful price action that can be gleamed from that. You can take any level in a product and if price fails there and comes back, it's most likely going to fail again. You can create these levels randomly. Just pull up any chart that paused at some level and go back over the last few months and see how many times price stopped there. You'll notice it happened a lot. But just keep in mind, that level is now obvious to everyone. Anybody can look at a chart see double tops or triple bottoms. If trading were that easy, half of ET would be billionaires! LOL.

 

[Frank Furter]

I hear what your saying and will reflect on that. I understand you wanting to buy an sell at levels no one else is at. I get that.

Again, this is what makes trading a beautiful thing. Attached is my chart I referred to in my previous post ... perfect short to the tick.

 

[shopster]

take the top off euro session, pull back blow the new long stops

take the dark zone low out , pull back blow the new short stops

take out euro session top
get the new long pendings filled

reverse the market at the shop 5.7 cahuna exit door

hold the market up for 15 minutes and needlework the top, get everyone long.

pull back , blow the long stops.

time for a coffee break..........

s

 

[mfbreakout]

02-03-2012

Oil Pit Close.

 

[dv4632]

Quote from dv4632:

But the caveats are IMO your levels must be adaptable to market volatility

Well, I assume the levels should be based on volatility as that seems the logical thing to do. But since I haven't fully tested it yet I shouldn't have used "must" in that sentence.

But as an example of what I'm looking at, the attached chart is from a more volatile time, the week of September 16-23, 2011.
The chart on the right uses standard 3.5 levels. The chart on the left uses wider levels adapted to the wider daily ranges. It is up to the trader which option to use.

While looking at that time period it occurred to me that although ES is generally not a breakout instrument... during that time one may have been able to trade ES breakouts. So that's another option during higher volatility and who knows it may be more preferable than widening levels to play fades in such a climate.

Interested in others thoughts.

 

[dv4632]

Here is another chart, same view, this time from November 2011. Chart on left is wider levels, chart on right is 3.5 levels.

At this time and the first half of 2011, I think the standard MF level will be fine. But in August-October the ES daily ranges were twice what they are now and for me.... having a plan to handle those radical changes in volatility is high on my priority list.

 

[mfbreakout]

Makes perfect sense dv4632 to adjust for volatility as your charts show.

Here is how ES has traded in January, 2012 and why lot of traders got frustrated if they did not adjusted to ES Volatility and were stuck in 2011 HIGH VOLATILITY trading days mindset.

http://www.ranchodinero.com/blog/ title " Trading for value, Part One"

 

[DonCorleone]

mfbreakout - i was wondering what happened to you from the CL thread. great thread here. keep up the good work! do you happen to know a good thinkscript website? i'm trying to add a shaded region for OR's where I can change the color to my liking.

Shopster - thanks for your contribution here. good to see you from the forex thread. your charts are golden. i noticed you box the asian/europe/us sessions. do you use a custom indicator or script on MT4 for that? could you tell me where i can obtain it? i'm a blind man when it comes to coding.

thanks

 

[mfbreakout]

Quote from DonCorleone:

mfbreakout - i was wondering what happened to you from the CL thread. great thread here. keep up the good work! do you happen to know a good thinkscript website? i'm trying to add a shaded region for OR's where I can change the color to my liking.

Shopster - thanks for your contribution here. good to see you from the forex thread. your charts are golden. i noticed you box the asian/europe/us sessions. do you use a custom indicator or script on MT4 for that? could you tell me where i can obtain it? i'm a blind man when it comes to coding.

thanks

I lost interest as you stopped posting (lol). www.thinkscripter.com . He already has all you need for 1 time fee of $65.

Will appreciate if you post your charts also as i would like to add those waves of yours to my analysis. Just 3 charts whenever you can- pre open, mid day and Oil pit close.

 

[shopster]

Quote from DonCorleone:

Shopster - thanks for your contribution here, good to see you from the forex thread.
your charts are golden.
i noticed you box the asian/europe/us sessions.

do you use a custom indicator or script on MT4 for that?

could you tell me where i can obtain it.....?

DC,

a shop custom build.

live time dynamic with email alerts, auto server time and DST box adjustments for the asian, euro and ny sessions.

built for forex, but works on all....

i may vend my entire toolbox down the road, the anniversary platinum limited edition...........

the last pc. is still under dev. a full shop automation as per my forex thread.

s