Day trading a suckers game?

notagain said:
Try and predict direction somehow (is there a better way?)...
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The direction was there. The direction was up. Oct 1st/2nd 2018 happened, and we had a 20% drop through X-Mas eve. All the trade finagling was there through this year, and now we see what happened since Oct 1st/2nd 2019 until this date, X-Mas eve.

Exact opposites. It is maddening.

20% up? Well, maybe not that much, but it has been up up and away this quarter, exactly one year later. The NDX is up 47% from a year ago. The fuck.

Get the timing right, and you are rich. Get it wrong and you are poor. But the direction has always been up. The trade war through 2019 stilted the rise, and now we see what happens to the markets when trade fears abate.
 
Anton Kreil doesn't know shit about actually trading your own P/L. He sells courses, and he was a banker. He wasn't a trader at an IB, and he never talks about actual stuff like yield spreads, basis arbitrage, rate differentials, market structure, really anything that is complicated.

I doubt he can even walk you through a simple example like index arb.

Never heard him talk structure (dark pools, treasury basis, stat arb, any of it).

He needs it to be simple so that he can sell courses. <<<<

The first step of any con is to play on the dupes own confidence. Make them feel like they are winning by aligning themselves with you.

Here is the real reason intraday is the GOAT.

More leverage than any other form of trading, period.

It's the fastest money there is.

Anybody who tells you that intraday is impossible doesn't know what real edge is.

The truth is that intraday is the BEST money.
But, it's not for losers and people who want trading to be easy.
 
BearTrades said:
I have day traded in the past but i ended up transitioning into swing trading because it fit my personality much better and I got much better results. Today i saw an interesting video from Anton Kreil, and an ex Goldman Sachs trader in that video stated that "anyone who tells you to trade intraday is either and idiot or a conman" It starts at 1:40 in the video. Any consistently profitable day traders here?
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Great Video.In a strongly trending market with lots of overnight gaps intraday will miss those moves.Can't imagine holding emini's overnight in the recent past.You could be correct on the move but ES moved 20pts against you 1st,or just a nasty spike outside RTH.
Intraday it seems often doesn't offer the reward verses the risks of swing trading. I think with many smaller gains a strong unsuspecting countertrend mixed with a day with poor discipline/personal issue or whatever could wipe quite a few days of small gains.
 
monee said:
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Intraday it seems often doesn't offer the reward verses the risks of swing trading. I think with many smaller gains a strong unsuspecting countertrend mixed with a day with poor discipline/personal issue or whatever could wipe quite a few days of small gains.
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Sure, until Trump tweets something about trade. Then you get your bang for the buck.
 
I think it's possible to trade the indexes intraday. In my data, the percentage of days where you gap (close -> open) less than 1% AND close more than 1% is about 14%. So that is, for those days that do not gap appreciably, the chances that the close is 1% away from the open is about 14%. Say that it is wrong and is actually 20%. Can you build a strategy around this? Can you "characterize" the first few hours/minutes of the trading day for such days? They have a character for sure. I bet you can probably find relationships between overnight trading and regular trading hours as well but I don't trade futures so I haven't bothered to look.

I'm not saying I have been successfully doing this for eons but this is how I develop my index-related strategies. It's really, really boring to execute but there are a ton of situations you can think of and develop strategies around those.

Let's say (for example) you find some set of logical conditions under which you can say 85% of the last 5 years of such conditions have resulted in a trade that nets you 0.1% per day. That's not a bad return. Then repeat, repeat, repeat and size such that you don't lose an entire year's worth of gains in one day. This is where "characterizing" the day comes in handy. Let me not tell you about the time I "eagerly" characterized the day and went in for 100 contracts the wrong way.

If you get bored doing nothing all day like me, then just keep developing more strategies and trying out new things. You can repeat the above pattern for any time frame you like, and it probably also applies for rate futures.
 
monee said:
Great Video.In a strongly trending market with lots of overnight gaps intraday will miss those moves.Can't imagine holding emini's overnight in the recent past.You could be correct on the move but ES moved 20pts against you 1st,or just a nasty spike outside RTH.
Intraday it seems often doesn't offer the reward verses the risks of swing trading. I think with many smaller gains a strong unsuspecting countertrend mixed with a day with poor discipline/personal issue or whatever could wipe quite a few days of small gains.
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You get a few trendy days per month. It's enough to give you a nice bang. There were 3-4 this month if memory serves. Patience is better.
 
Overnight said:
A few trendy days per month?!? How about a few trendy quarters?!? UG!!
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Well, like I said on another thread, I likes me some zero-day options :-D

nooby_mcnoob said:
I think it's possible to trade the indexes intraday. In my data, the percentage of days where you gap (close -> open) less than 1% AND close more than 1% is about 14%. So that is, for those days that do not gap appreciably, the chances that the close is 1% away from the open is about 14%. Say that it is wrong and is actually 20%. Can you build a strategy around this? Can you "characterize" the first few hours/minutes of the trading day for such days? They have a character for sure. I bet you can probably find relationships between overnight trading and regular trading hours as well but I don't trade futures so I haven't bothered to look.

I'm not saying I have been successfully doing this for eons but this is how I develop my index-related strategies. It's really, really boring to execute but there are a ton of situations you can think of and develop strategies around those.

Let's say (for example) you find some set of logical conditions under which you can say 85% of the last 5 years of such conditions have resulted in a trade that nets you 0.1% per day. That's not a bad return. Then repeat, repeat, repeat and size such that you don't lose an entire year's worth of gains in one day. This is where "characterizing" the day comes in handy. Let me not tell you about the time I "eagerly" characterized the day and went in for 100 contracts the wrong way.

If you get bored doing nothing all day like me, then just keep developing more strategies and trying out new things. You can repeat the above pattern for any time frame you like, and it probably also applies for rate futures.
More...

I also want to add that there is an element of "overfitting" here which is why I suggest that every set of conditions you look at should not be "fitted". You should hypothesize and see if the data holds consistent over random periods. If it doesn't, don't modify the parameters to fit, try another idea.
 
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