Developing a price based trading plan (PBP) #5
TIME â The Forgotten
From the 1st developing a PBP post: (
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...loping+a+price+based+trading+plan#post1849757)
âThere are many variables in a consistent and sustainable price based trading plan (PBP): the most important are timeframe, time, risk, instrument and capital. All of them have their unique implications, yet they all are mutually interdependent. The success or the failure of a trading plan is given by how consistent these unique implications and their interrelations are in your own trading plan. Finding the equilibrium between these macro interrelations is the key for a successful PBP.
However, these interrelations must never interfere or blur basic price analysis; on the contrary they are adaptive variables that have to be used to facilitate tradingâ¦.â[/u][/color]
Time is one of the most important macro variables in a PBP and still is usually forgotten in the analysis. Time is less important in very long timeframes but if you are day trading or âscalpingâ
I will dare to say that choosing the right time to trade is as important as price analysis itself.Why time is so important? Because it may affect almost all of your PBP variables (risk, instrument, capital, etc) and also your triggers, stops, profit targets, etc, etc.
What is the difference for your PBP of trading the Swiss Franc during TOKIO lunch time or at peak European morning times minutes after Swiss Consumer Climate news or during the last 2 hours of US trading?
Why your drawdowns are very small with the ES during the European hours or the FesX, Fdax after European peak hours in comparison with ânormalâ times?
Are the GGC, QM or FGBL trading ranges the same during different trading hours? ⦠stops, time exits, profit targets, etc? What about stocks in European or US markets?
As any other variable in a PBP, a
small trader should find his/her own trading time. Aiming for 5 ticks a day scalping the YM with a very fast timeframe when you have 4 major news coming and a possible change of interest rate that the whole world is watching itâs not going to give you any edge. There is exactly where psychology interrelates with the time variable. Greed and lack of discipline usually tempt small traders to go for a fast instrument in a fast timeframe in a very wild and fast time for trading.
Iâll continue in my next post
jjrvat