A POINT OF ORDER
Itâs amazing how often we small traders tend to lose perspective during a discussion on trading. During the past few years I have found that most of the forums arguments end up dealing with the same issues âthe technicalities of tradingâ which in my opinion obviously reflects one of the key problems that stop day traders to pass to the next level:
PERSPECTIVE.
I read the last few pages, there are some very good comments that I will try to comment later and some other that are out of context and I will ignore, but in general I think the thread is losing north for the same reason mentioned above LACK OF PERSPECTIVE.
As a point of order and to try to regain focus for a more constructive discussion I will go, once again, to what is for me one of the basic principles in daytrading:
It âdoesnât matterâ how do you pull the trigger as long as you apply consistent price analysis, âknowâ where do you have more probabilities for a successful trade and you are willing to accept without hesitation the cost of doing business. In other words, the order of analysis will change the end result and itâs impossible to run a business without accepting the cost need it to make it profitable (sure you could aim to reduce âcostsâ but itâs impossible to completely evade them).
To avoid repetition with previous posts I will use 2 charts this time based purely on entries.
1. A typical Holy Grail system that looks amazing at first glance:
INDICATORS FOR ENTRIES:
50 WMA
12 EMA
Slow Stochastic with SMA (10,3,3)
Momentum 7
Standard Deviation Bands Top (HIGHS) Bottom (LOWS), (25 Smoothed Mov Avg, multiplication factor 1.780
MACD Linear Regression (11,18,8)
RULES:
Shorts when: 50 WMA>12EMA, MACD diff RED and below 0, Stochastic moving from overbought and change slope to red below 70, Momentum < 100, Std Bands on the bottom half but with a gap big enough to the lower band.
Longs when: the opposite
PERSPECTIVE: NONE. Who cares this is a valid trade !!!
2. The most basic system that looks as good as the previous one
Indicators for entries:
21 WMA
Rules:
For shorts: Slope is RED + a close below the WMA when price has close above but hasnât change slope.
Perspective: Not much but at least you know when you are in long or short mode.
Which entry is better? The results are the same regardless of the trigger, so what is the point of indicators?....
The answer is very easy
a valid trade is a valid trade no matter how hard we try to âtweakâ or improve or indicators to tell us that there is a trade where is not. Therefore, the key for successful trading is not âhowâ but âwhenâ we have more probabilities for a good trade. That is why the whole wave analysis and macro direction and not the specific details on the technicalities of trading.
The problems arise when overtrading, leverage, psychological fears, lack of discipline, capital, wrong timeframe for risk and time of trading, etc, etc, etc lead a small trader to the endless vicious circle of tweaking indicators for potential solutions for sometimes contradictory goals: âperfectâ entries and exits with minimum drawdown, huge profits in short timeframes, small profits in long timeframes, low risk with high profit, etc, etc. The end result is always the same, after a couple of weeks a trader end up trading indicators and not price with more doubts than solutions.
â¦Iâll continue later
jjrvat