Day trading : 150 days - 1 % return per day (weekly updates)

[helmethermit]

hi all,

day trading experience - 2.6 years of day trading

trading instrument - index (India) - nifty futures (NSE) only
style of trading - pure day trading (all positions squared off and no positional)

start capital - 206000 inr (2800 usd approx)
duration - 150 trading days
target - 1% net profit per day of day start capital

draw-down: if/when capital touches 150000K (2100$)

day stop loss: 1% of day start capital
trade stop loss : at area of value and not by percentage (day loss to be honoured in all cases)

risk : reward = 1:1

trading style: hybrid scalping / pure manual trading

fundamental analysis: none, trading index

technical set up:
(5 or 15 min trading chart time frame is decided on basis of trend strength).
trading ctf - 5/15 min
reference ctf - 15/60 min
exit signal ctf - 3/5 min

1. identify direction of reference chart trend
2. wait for pullback on trade chart to enter
3. go down to lower chart and await stall or exit signal

technical indicators:
1. heiken ashi candlesticks
2. awesome oscillator

its a ridiculously simple set up i know but it works for me.

await kicker candles on heiken ashi. once ha signal is printed check awesome to see if it agrees and that there is no divergence. each heiken ashi candle in itself tells you the strength and momentum of the wave or move.

awesome signal is positive over zero and negative below zero. simple, i do not use the double peak etc. over zero i go long only and below zero i only short. each time i see red over zero on the awesome i exit and re-enter on green again. vice versa for the shorts. i play it extra safe.

NO Leverage - Max lots are only those that i can afford with day start balance minus one lot for the stop loss requirements. usually trade number of lots i can afford on positional although i do not carry any trade overnight. this is just a safety barrier to prevent overexposure.

homework pre-open:
1. check dow to get an idea of global markets
2. check sgx n asian markets to get bias on open
3. of course nse pre open - advances / decline etc and % of nifty stocks in green/red
4. monitor and watch how the usd/inr has been behaving
5. monitor wti crude and gold to get an idea of what sentiment exists in the markets
6. list down all news / results due etc / option expiry on thursdays / quadruple witching day if any etc - that may affect the nse and nifty.
7. vix for the volatility in the markets etc

homework after close:
1 support / resistance levels as per option chain
2.major support / resistance levels as per daily charts
3.FII (foreign institutional investors) and DII (domestic) fund inflow/outflow
4. bigger trend as on day chart
5. chart patterns on 15 min for the next day - channels, trend lines, flags, double bottom etc

weekend: full review of trade plan and update log books. corrections applied if any but no major or critical changes to trade plan or strategy allowed. trade discipline reviewed along-with other parameters.

i put out everything i could think of. i will be posting an update once at the end of the week. the final broker statement of the full 150 trading days will be put up at the end of the full period. weekly updates will include my daily log entries that i maintain towards my monitoring etc.

that is all for now. planning to stay disciplined and trade well.
i need 5.10 % overall end of the first week to stay in the game and not fall behind.
let me see how it goes.

 

[trdes]

1% is pretty low if you have experience, and a clearly defined plan on how you're going to be consistent and get there everyday. That's only $20.00 a day on $2k. Sure, at some point 1% becomes potentially more difficult, but by the time you have that problem you'll likely be successful enough.

So sure its possible, I know it is because I've watched people do it live day in and day out for months at a time. Is it possible for you to do it? I have no clue.

 

[Sekiyo]

0.99^150 = 0.22

It doesn’t mean anything.
But you have a 22% chance of doing it.

It’s not impossible.
Therefore it’s possible.

Good luck.
I mean ... Great work.

Will you compound ?

Making one percent isn’t difficult,
But keeping and compounding it is difficult.

Don’t you have statistics about your trades ?
That’s the most reliable answer to your question.

The larger the sample, the more meaningful.
But past performance isn’t indicative of future one.

Got something like 150 trades in record,
The expectancy is about 3% ... per trade.
But I am over leveraged so divide it by 10.
0.3% per trade x 3 trades per day = 1% daily.

But these are just numbers.

You ain’t the stats and it’s not you.
Anything can happen. It’s left to be written.

Make it happen !

 

[helmethermit]

hello trdes,

true - as a day trader the target is pretty low. but what i was looking for is consistency. say over a 100/150 days can i keep and sustain that 1% a day. yes, like you mention - it is an easy road for now. no slippage, no order limitations to bother about. also true that long before these issue are even close to the horizon the 150 days will be up. i wanted to go in for 5% a day in wti crude but due to this lockdown i decided to delay that and this is just filler until i put a little more bigger amount and get into crude again. i had just back-tested the index futures and paper traded for a week before i began this 1% live test. now all i have is one week of live trading the index. i was a crude man most of my learning period. it takes a while to adapt to a new instrument. basics are the same but so much is new too. so for now the 1% is a good litmus test for me. i have completed the first week but my broker has yet to update the figures so i will post them tomorrow or before monday for sure.

good day to you and stay safe.

 

[helmethermit]

0.99^150 = 0.22

It doesn’t mean anything.
But you have a 22% chance of doing it.

It’s not impossible.
Therefore it’s possible.

Good luck.
I mean ... Great work.

Will you compound ?

Making one percent isn’t difficult,
But keeping and compounding it is difficult.

1% of the daily start capital (not 1% of the day 1 start capital) that way i end up with some 9900$ net profit at the end of 150 days which is roughly a closing capital of 12500$ (start is 2800$)

day Cap net net %age
DAY 001 2861 29 1.00
DAY 002 2890 29 1.00
DAY 003 2919 29 1.00
DAY 004 2948 29 1.00
DAY 005 2977 30 1.00
DAY 006 3007 30 1.00
DAY 007 3037 30 1.00
DAY 008 3067 31 1.00
DAY 009 3098 31 1.00
DAY 010 3129 31 1.00
DAY 011 3160 32 1.00
DAY 012 3192 32 1.00
DAY 013 3224 32 1.00
DAY 014 3256 33 1.00
DAY 015 3289 33 1.00
DAY 016 3322 33 1.00
DAY 017 3355 34 1.00
DAY 018 3388 34 1.00
DAY 019 3422 34 1.00
DAY 020 3457 35 1.00
DAY 021 3491 35 1.00
DAY 022 3526 35 1.00
DAY 023 3561 36 1.00
DAY 024 3597 36 1.00
DAY 025 3633 36 1.00
DAY 026 3669 37 1.00
DAY 027 3706 37 1.00
DAY 028 3743 37 1.00
DAY 029 3780 38 1.00
DAY 030 3818 38 1.00
DAY 031 3856 39 1.00
DAY 032 3895 39 1.00
DAY 033 3934 39 1.00
DAY 034 3973 40 1.00
DAY 035 4013 40 1.00
DAY 036 4053 41 1.00
DAY 037 4094 41 1.00
DAY 038 4135 41 1.00
DAY 039 4176 42 1.00
DAY 040 4218 42 1.00
DAY 041 4260 43 1.00
DAY 042 4302 43 1.00
DAY 043 4345 43 1.00
DAY 044 4389 44 1.00
DAY 045 4433 44 1.00
DAY 046 4477 45 1.00
DAY 047 4522 45 1.00
DAY 048 4567 46 1.00
DAY 049 4613 46 1.00
DAY 050 4659 47 1.00
DAY 051 4705 47 1.00
DAY 052 4753 48 1.00
DAY 053 4800 48 1.00
DAY 054 4848 48 1.00
DAY 055 4897 49 1.00
DAY 056 4946 49 1.00
DAY 057 4995 50 1.00
DAY 058 5045 50 1.00
DAY 059 5095 51 1.00
DAY 060 5146 51 1.00
DAY 061 5198 52 1.00
DAY 062 5250 52 1.00
DAY 063 5302 53 1.00
DAY 064 5355 54 1.00
DAY 065 5409 54 1.00
DAY 066 5463 55 1.00
DAY 067 5518 55 1.00
DAY 068 5573 56 1.00
DAY 069 5628 56 1.00
DAY 070 5685 57 1.00
DAY 071 5742 57 1.00
DAY 072 5799 58 1.00
DAY 073 5857 59 1.00
DAY 074 5916 59 1.00
DAY 075 5975 60 1.00
DAY 076 6034 60 1.00
DAY 077 6095 61 1.00
DAY 078 6156 62 1.00
DAY 079 6217 62 1.00
DAY 080 6279 63 1.00
DAY 081 6342 63 1.00
DAY 082 6406 64 1.00
DAY 083 6470 65 1.00
DAY 084 6534 65 1.00
DAY 085 6600 66 1.00
DAY 086 6666 67 1.00
DAY 087 6732 67 1.00
DAY 088 6800 68 1.00
DAY 089 6868 69 1.00
DAY 090 6936 69 1.00
DAY 091 7006 70 1.00
DAY 092 7076 71 1.00
DAY 093 7147 71 1.00
DAY 094 7218 72 1.00
DAY 095 7290 73 1.00
DAY 096 7363 74 1.00
DAY 097 7437 74 1.00
DAY 098 7511 75 1.00
DAY 099 7586 76 1.00
DAY 100 7662 77 1.00
DAY 101 7739 77 1.00
DAY 102 7816 78 1.00
DAY 103 7894 79 1.00
DAY 104 7973 80 1.00
DAY 105 8053 81 1.00
DAY 106 8134 81 1.00
DAY 107 8215 82 1.00
DAY 108 8297 83 1.00
DAY 109 8380 84 1.00
DAY 110 8464 85 1.00
DAY 111 8548 85 1.00
DAY 112 8634 86 1.00
DAY 113 8720 87 1.00
DAY 114 8807 88 1.00
DAY 115 8896 89 1.00
DAY 116 8984 90 1.00
DAY 117 9074 91 1.00
DAY 118 9165 92 1.00
DAY 119 9257 93 1.00
DAY 120 9349 93 1.00
DAY 121 9443 94 1.00
DAY 122 9537 95 1.00
DAY 123 9633 96 1.00
DAY 124 9729 97 1.00
DAY 125 9826 98 1.00
DAY 126 9924 99 1.00
DAY 127 10024 100 1.00
DAY 128 10124 101 1.00
DAY 129 10225 102 1.00
DAY 130 10327 103 1.00
DAY 131 10431 104 1.00
DAY 132 10535 105 1.00
DAY 133 10640 106 1.00
DAY 134 10747 107 1.00
DAY 135 10854 109 1.00
DAY 136 10963 110 1.00
DAY 137 11072 111 1.00
DAY 138 11183 112 1.00
DAY 139 11295 113 1.00
DAY 140 11408 114 1.00
DAY 141 11522 115 1.00
DAY 142 11637 116 1.00
DAY 143 11754 118 1.00
DAY 144 11871 119 1.00
DAY 145 11990 120 1.00
DAY 146 12110 121 1.00
DAY 147 12231 122 1.00
DAY 148 12353 124 1.00
DAY 149 12477 125 1.00
DAY 150 12601 126 1.00
END 12727

 

[Sekiyo]

Now I see a problem.
You’re either making 1% or losing 1% per day ?

It means you need (1%*1-1%*0=1%)
No losing days. Otherwise you will underperform.

 

[Sekiyo]

Now I see a problem.
You’re either making 1% or losing 1% per day ?

It means you need (1%*1-1%*0=1%)
No losing days. Otherwise you will underperform.

If you win :
5 out 5 days you need to earn 1% daily.
4 out 5 days you need to earn 1.5% daily.
3 out 5 days you need to earn 2.33% daily.
2 out 5 days you need to earn 4% daily.
1 out 5 days you need to earn 9% daily.

But this is the arithmetic expectancy,
We talk percentage so the actual numbers are higher.

 

[helmethermit]

Now I see a problem.
You’re either making 1% or losing 1% per day ?

It means you need (1%*1-1%*0=1%)
No losing days. Otherwise you will underperform.

yes, i have a 1:1. risk reward. i am banking on my winning days outnumbering my losing days. each losing day will bleed me bad i know. but there will be losing days too. so the only way to offset this is to take one or two big winners a week to cushion the fall on a losing day.

here is an really old test myself trading month i had been through long back. was scalping one banking stock and using no leverage. this test will be the first after that. in between i quit day trading and was not regular until some six months back when i decided to jump in full time now as a full time career.

 

[SunTrader]

Markets oscillate between small and large ranges. Lately though between large and very large ranges lol. 1% is limiting.

What you want to do is limit losses but not wwwwwwwins.

Consistent winners are a good thing, what percent matters in the least.

 

[helmethermit]

very true suntrader,

i did well last week given the fact that margin requirements have been skyrocketing due to the absurd levels of volatility. they even stopped margin trading on a few days so that meant i was trading with not more than 25% of firepower in a way. but then if one did get caught on the wrong foot in these cartoonish markets of late it could wipe an account faster than you could wipe anything else, lol. circuits are no more shockers but a event that happens every other day of late. .

happy with the start i managed for the first week. there is always the nagging feeling that i could have made so much more. but on a few days even 1$ seems impossible, lol.