Day/SWING/POSITION ?? TRADING

Quote from jokepie:

Thank you for your comment.

The purpose of this thread is to experiment with some of the "illusions" that differentiate various TYPE of trading as listed in the Title of the thread.

So, I usually remove the axis information, leaving the chart open to Objective assesment.

I choose SPY not to PREDICT the market at all. In case of the chart in the last post. if you were DAYtrading and that was a 5 min chart of SOME security. WOULD you have OPENED a LONG at the close of that candle ??
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Getting back to the real world the question should be -

If that chart is a daily chart - comparing 2 good traders - if at the beginning of the trend a position trader took a position, added positions and is still long and a day trader started same time but trading every day in and out trying to capture similar intraday trends - who makes more money, takes on less risk, low drawdowns, etc, etc ?
 
Quote from jokepie:

Keeping the thinking growing.
Current Market SPY as an example.

I know alot of threads going around with People wanting to SHORT.
Attached is a chart of SPY Daily but with no price or time axis.
IF this was a 5 minute chart ...the question is WOULD YOU SHORT IT ???

I would not!! There is no Price action supporting it.
Momentum is strong. and UP.

Comments please.
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I wouldn't short or long anything for a day trade or swing trade based on a chart alone. In fact, charts are the last thing I look at.
Perhaps knowing what your trading and understanding the news surrounding the stocks in play would go along ways towards removing the mystrey some of you seem to have about trading.

I wonder how many of you even read earnings reports and press releases or know anything about the companies your trading? From what I gather most on this site really have no clue why a stock is acting a certain way or even an opinion of how it should be trading based upon the current information. It's no wonder most struggle.
 
Quote from Handle123:

I primarily day-trade futures, occasionally day trade IBM and Google. But I found for myself, going for bigger profits in ES are not my style, nothing I backtested offered consistent daily returns. Instead of shooting for larger profits and which often means smaller winning percentage, I found that for myself, that smaller profits are often easier to get, then using many money management rules allowed my losing percentages to first go below fifteen percent, a mixture of wins and breakevens was left. Since losing percentage was low, I backtested adding to a losing position would make a breakeven trades, very profitable. When I added and was able to accept time elements after my entry, this lowered my losing percentages even more. When I added volume to my charts, this allowed me to pass on at least one losing trade per day, I didn't care if I missed winning trades, so long as I miss at least equal amount of wins/losses, and when I got a 'feeling" for reading the DOME, I could get in one tic better or stay 1-3 tics longer. ES, I can do fairly good size, whereas in stocks, not always that way.

Back in the 80's and 90's when S&P traded in nickels and big point was $500, I could risk next to nothing 3-5 tics and target a full point or two, but now the Emini ES is so watered down so that underfunded and inexperienced can trade. For consistent gains, I have to risk more and get less.

I think it is important to be able to discover who you are as a trader, the earlier the better. I just found backtesting, trading the ES at certain areas, time or volume, counter-trend moves happen so much easier for 1-4 tics. But it always comes down to your personality, what are you willing to accept. When I was much younger, I could handle 40% losing trades, but after so many years and not wanting to do 150 trades a day, I have abandoned larger dollar per winning trade for smaller losing percentages and only 20-40 trades a day. And that is not much for scalping.
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Have you tried adding more positions?I have gone further and added upto 75 positions , yet my drawdown never exceeds 5 % of my equity , and I can recover all the losses from all losing trades in the past.I can't discuss this method here.

Take a look at the following back tests for euro /usd from 2001 to 2010, using 20 stop and 22 target , the losses are due to the spread.
 

Attachments

Take a look at the following back tests for euro /usd from 2001 to 2010, using 20 stop and 22 target , the losses are due to the spread.

Even a computer programme gets 48% hit rate.
 

Attachments

Some important 'concepts' (such as S/R levels) seem to be universal across different timeframes, but the way to actually make money from them can vary hugely depending on the timeframe.

What I mean by this is if you are an S/R trader on the 1 hour charts you will probably need a different stop/target strategy to a 'similar' S/R trader using the weekly charts.

So even though you might both be buying a chart pattern that 'looks the same' on both timeframes there will be differences in how cleanly the levels are obeyed, how far the bounce may be etc and a trading strategy will have to be adapted to fit as you get experience of your particular timeframe.
 
Quote from BlackBison:

Some important 'concepts' (such as S/R levels) seem to be universal across different timeframes, but the way to actually make money from them can vary hugely depending on the timeframe.

What I mean by this is if you are an S/R trader on the 1 hour charts you will probably need a different stop/target strategy to a 'similar' S/R trader using the weekly charts.

So even though you might both be buying a chart pattern that 'looks the same' on both timeframes there will be differences in how cleanly the levels are obeyed, how far the bounce may be etc and a trading strategy will have to be adapted to fit as you get experience of your particular timeframe.
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I prefer not to deal with the S/R levels in Anytime frames. As they can limit my trades POTENTIAL. I stay with the momentum untill it does not work.
In theory the all strategies should be time frame independent and only depend on "Traders" experience with the markets. All that is required in short time frame is higher response time.
 
Quote from jokepie:

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I prefer not to deal with the S/R levels in Anytime frames. As they can limit my trades POTENTIAL. I stay with the momentum untill it does not work.
In theory the all strategies should be time frame independent and only depend on "Traders" experience with the markets. All that is required in short time frame is higher response time.
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contrary to what "most" think and the way most act, it is possible to trade any market for profit with just one simple tool!

for those who know it is of course easy to understand, but for those who do not know they may never understand if they fail to reflect on the reality of what happens on a daily basis.

to make money trading all you have to do is buy at one price and exit at another when you are showing a profit. how much money you make will be determined by several factors, again, if you do not know these factors then the odds are you should not be trading!

for clarity, one of the several factors is knowing how much it will cost you to see if the trade will allow you exit for a profit. just in case some readers are unaware that losing trades are part of the business of trading, and in order to become a successful winner you must already be a successful loser.

funny is it not, that most start out to win and very few start out to lose, but the losers become the winners and the winners become the losers. now where is the logic in that!
 
Quote from jokepie:

Hi all,

I wanted to start this thread to discuss something that has been brewing in my head for quite some while. I feel this might be a good contribution to someone who is starting ot is struglling.
I have started to believe that there is NO difference is trade-ability (excuse my english) or level of difficulty between Day/Swing/Position !! The reason I believe this is that there is no way to tell which time frame a CHART is if you remove the information on its axis. For an example a 5 minute candle chart of any instrument with lets say 200 candles can be a daily or weekly/chart of 200 candles as well. It might very well could be a tick chart!!!


Then what does it all come down to ? - EXPERIENCE !!!! which drives your response time.


In my years of experience, i hav seen big losses, emotion swings that left me trembling in my chair. I never gave up the quest and kept telling myself that I will achieve excellence and beieved success will be inevitable.

The reason this thread is in psychology section is that BIGGEST factor in becoming a good trader is Psychology.

I hope to contribute to traders and trading community. I believe in Teaching is the best way to learn.

I hope other experience folks will contribute on this Idea.
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JP
From a math only figuring of profits;
it would seem like daytrading would be best, & some market makers do quite well[daytrading]

Putting in 7 years+/ helps.

But because of slippage[more trading=more slippage],
because of trends/friends,[still quite helpful]
because of less comissions;
many do well banking on trend persistancy.Not a prediction.

Also 3 trades in a row profitable would not be any kind of a great record;
but when each lasts a year more or less, see any patterns???LOL

Also should mention Rich ''turtle''Dennis proved there is an insurance premium paid on overnight position.:D :D
 
Quote from murray t turtle:


Also should mention Rich ''turtle''Dennis proved there is an insurance premium paid on overnight position.:D :D
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This is the very reason, Day trades are less risky and OBviously low return trades.
The difference comes in the Probability of successfull trade and that totally dpends on a traders ability to spot a trend, then execute while maintaining risk levels comfortable.

The fact of the matter is that One needs to SIMULATe a long term trade in Intraday chart. How can this be done ??? Very simple - Be selective in choosing the charts. With experience one can just spot trendy ones in a glimpse. There are tons od stocks that do that every day. They are just not the same ones every-day.
On this basis...day trading Futures is tuff (folks obviously stick with one -favourite future)...as they ususally do not trend nicely all the time - one has to be very selective intraday or trade a higher time frame if possible
 
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