David's Portfolio Journal

With 10yr Treasury yields back around 1.86% I'll add some more size to the trade. The extension of the zero rates policy was widely flagged and expected by the market, the hope is that eocnomic data maintains its positive spin on the US economy.
 
" Quite a few flat, some small losses, some small wins and one (11%) large profit. Good start, sort of distribution I'm looking to achieve....

" AUDUSD has a lot of momentum, pushing for a long position if it can hold 1.07, but fundamentally the strong currency is seriously hurting the manufacturing and retail sectors..........

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traders do not care about mfg, economics or numbers like 1.07 and central bank intervention is suspect.

a band aid solution at best.

it is a game of pure math and simple patterns to the exit doors.

s

:cool:
 

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Sure Shopster, your graphs are logical, just not my personal style to be 100% technical. Particularly when you are trading other partners' money (as I was until last month), you need an awful lot of justification for bad trades and pure technical analysis won't cut it.

The sisters approach looks good, I held until the high 1.07s and made a little, 50 pips or so, but I'm happy to sit out a little at the moment.

I'm currently considering a sizeable VIX trade, analysing its correlations with the SPX. The tentative idea is to be long VIX and the index in a pairs trade.
 
I closed out my long US 10yr Treasury notes today, taking around 20bp in profit. It was originally intended as a longer term trade, but I'm happy to sit on that profit and wait for the next signal, as it has beena bit choppy between 2% and 2.1% recently, with no clear sign of a breakout above that upper limit.

The brent/crude spread is my latest position, having blow out to around $18.5. Medium term I doubt it will hold - the major oil producers have little incentive to oversupply crude and a railroad solution to transporting more brent is feasible, only adding around $2-5 pb depending on what estimates you look at. These would tighten the spread and hopefully make me a handy buck of two along the way.

My spread target is as narrow as $10, but I depending on the speed of developments the funding cost may see me taking profits earlier. I'm prepared for the spread to go as wide as $25, where I'l be taking a large loss but getting ready to return if the trend changes.
 
The brent/crude futures spread is coming in nicely, down to around $16.5, leaving me with around a $2 gain and a $2000 profit per contract.

Whilst this could be a brief whipsaw in a costly upwards trend, I'm betting that the spread narrows to $15 and waits for its next move there.

I really should have posted the trade idea on www.pimmtrading.blogspot.com and www.tradingpimm.blogspot.com before I made it, got to make the most of the good ones :P
 
The WTI/Brent spread has come back out again, had a medium sized loss at one stage (relative to the stop for this trade), but this is one that I'll sit on until it does stop out, since it's based on macro fundamentals rather than technicals.

Still eying up the VIX, which has been pretty choppy, but yet to find a suitable entry point to go long.
 
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