David Tice Predicts S&P to Fall Below 800 Level
- Thread starter makloda
- Start date
Ok here we go: Tice expects another 50% downdraft from here (Dec 8). That would bring us to $SPX 450.Quote from makloda:Can't have a tradable bottom before this guy doesn't declare victory and lowers his target.
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.ht...//media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vZgQiXyPqiak.asf
If you listened to him, who cares about the S&P? He says we are in for a hyperinflation move (buy gold, devalued dollar, etc)... So with that said, he is not a deflationist. If he isn't a deflationist, then its much harder to short the S&P. Could you imagine what will happen to raw materials and miner stocks if we had hyperinflation?
Federatedâs Tice Says S&P 500 Is Poised to Plunge 62%
April 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poorâs 500 Indexâs 28 percent rise since March 9 is a âsuckerâs rally,â and the overvalued measure may plunge 62 percent as earnings continue to shrink, according to David Tice of Federated Investors Inc.
Stocks are overpriced relative to earnings, which wonât rebound soon after posting the longest quarterly slump since the Great Depression, said Tice, the chief portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated. Analysts estimate that the S&P 500 earnings decline, which has lasted for six quarters, will continue for three more quarters before profits improve, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The S&P 500âs five-week advance, the steepest since the 1930s, according to S&P analyst Howard Silverblatt, may carry the index 16 percent higher to 1,000 points before faltering, Tice said.
âStocks are overpriced in terms of earnings,â he said in a Bloomberg Television interview. âWe are closing down factories and retailers and businesses all over the place. How in the world are earnings going to stabilize? We just donât see it.â
The Federated Prudent Bear Fund that Tice founded returned 27 percent last year as the S&P 500 plunged 38 percent, the most since 1937.
Tice said the benchmark index for U.S. stocks may end the year at 500, representing a 42 percent slide from todayâs close of 865.30. It may eventually fall to 325, he said.
Companies in the S&P 500 trade at 1.9 times their liquidation value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Tice said that ratio may fall to between 1 and 0.5.
âIâve never been more confident that this market will fall back to at least book value,â Tice said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6hgHyLBy0VU
April 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poorâs 500 Indexâs 28 percent rise since March 9 is a âsuckerâs rally,â and the overvalued measure may plunge 62 percent as earnings continue to shrink, according to David Tice of Federated Investors Inc.
Stocks are overpriced relative to earnings, which wonât rebound soon after posting the longest quarterly slump since the Great Depression, said Tice, the chief portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated. Analysts estimate that the S&P 500 earnings decline, which has lasted for six quarters, will continue for three more quarters before profits improve, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The S&P 500âs five-week advance, the steepest since the 1930s, according to S&P analyst Howard Silverblatt, may carry the index 16 percent higher to 1,000 points before faltering, Tice said.
âStocks are overpriced in terms of earnings,â he said in a Bloomberg Television interview. âWe are closing down factories and retailers and businesses all over the place. How in the world are earnings going to stabilize? We just donât see it.â
The Federated Prudent Bear Fund that Tice founded returned 27 percent last year as the S&P 500 plunged 38 percent, the most since 1937.
Tice said the benchmark index for U.S. stocks may end the year at 500, representing a 42 percent slide from todayâs close of 865.30. It may eventually fall to 325, he said.
Companies in the S&P 500 trade at 1.9 times their liquidation value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Tice said that ratio may fall to between 1 and 0.5.
âIâve never been more confident that this market will fall back to at least book value,â Tice said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6hgHyLBy0VU
Whatever little prickish child who keeps rating these threads one star, why don't you construct and post an intelligent rebuttal to the OP, instead?
Retard.
Retard.
Stocks expensive?
S & P 500 Index 869.60 856.56 1390.33
P/E Ratio 58.44 57.56 21.01
Earns Yield % 1.71 1.74 4.76
Earns $ 14.88 14.88 66.19
Divs Yield % 2.77 2.81 2.05
Divs $ 24.09 24.07 28.50
Mkt to Book 1.64 1.62 2.76
Book Value $ 529.58 529.58 504.39
Since when is P/E of 58 expensive?
http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-indexespeyields.html
Buy bull buy!
S & P 500 Index 869.60 856.56 1390.33
P/E Ratio 58.44 57.56 21.01
Earns Yield % 1.71 1.74 4.76
Earns $ 14.88 14.88 66.19
Divs Yield % 2.77 2.81 2.05
Divs $ 24.09 24.07 28.50
Mkt to Book 1.64 1.62 2.76
Book Value $ 529.58 529.58 504.39
Since when is P/E of 58 expensive?
http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-indexespeyields.html
Buy bull buy!