David Tice: Dow to fall 5000

[dhpar]

Quote from fundjunkie:

So, David Tice may yet be proven not to have been talking complete nonsense after all.

you are aware that his s&p prediction is that we hit 325 (sic!) somewhere after 2009?

 

[aradiel]

Quote from Handle123:

I know the many will shoot me down as others have tried, but I have been a bear since July 2007. I have traded nearly three decades, all kinds of market disasters, some man-made and others government made and some even nature made. But it doesn't take a genius to see that the economy is going to get much much worse. My Father's generation had produced the "Baby Boomer's", many many people, WE worked hard and long. We bought and bought and bought, we caused the stock market to become the greatest bull market ever. BUT we had much less children plus since there is Abortion, this also reduced the amount of the next generation.

Well, Baby Boomers getting older and buying much less, our kids don't seem to have the same drive as we did, and buying so much less, no sustained effort to buy, so weak companies go out of business, that is normal, the strong survive. But when Clinton was Pres., telling the banks make it easier for those who can't qualify to buy a home, this was the start of over inflating units built, more demand increases extreme prices.

[..]

Interesting points. The level of GDP depends basically upon three variables, namely capital stock, work force and technology. You are stressing out the human part of the equation and I happen to agree with you. What is your take on emerging markets such as China, Brazil and India? They are still experiencing relatively high rates of population growth, have high capital stock (in termos of natural resources and physical space to grow) and both their government and people are well adapted to adverse and instable economic conditions, specially in Brazil.

 

[fundjunkie]

Quote from dhpar:

you are aware that his s&p prediction is that we hit 325 (sic!) somewhere after 2009?

No, and I don't care. My comments weren't designed to buttress his reputation as a market oracle.


Thx
D

 

[QQQBALL]

Quote from makloda:

If you had boughts Tice's bear fund at its inception in 1997 you'd still be down 15% today. Of course he'd love the Dow at 5000 lol

not adjusting for lost purchasing power. and before this dump, you would have felt like setting your hair on fire. They were getting K-I-L-L-E-D.

 

[gold@42]

5000? I think he is smoking the funny stuff! But there is always a chance. Who thought crude oil would trade at $150?

 

[QQQBALL]

Quote from fundjunkie:

Hi,
I know nothing of this David Tice guy and won't indiulge in any childish personal attacks upon him.

So, David Tice may yet be proven not to have been talking complete nonsense after all.


Thx
D

Maybe. Look at the BEARX chart. Visualize $1MM retirement fund at the start in BEARX and near the bottom you would have been afraid to open the account statement, not even accounting for inflation/loss in purchasing power and also doesn't account for fees (need to check that). So IF some guy said, we are down 15%, but the market is down xx% from the highs - the implication is out-performance. That is not a clear picture, because a fund such as BEARX actually ate it big-time. So the risk is these guys haven't beaten USTs or even CASH, not to mention the sickening roller coaster port balance variances & added risk.

I'm less concerned whether a money manager is right or wrong on his predictions, and more concerned if he can make me money or at least keep from losing it. Hussman seems to be very bearish at times, but he manages to hedge his convictions & is NOT A ONE TRICK PONY.