Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

Trail and cover with the 5min 3x3. It's possible we could stall out (there's a reason for that statement...check the Q AllPlus chart posted earlier today) so don't give back what you got. If it hits the 3x3 outta of there.

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The 30Min 3x3 kept the trend traders in the game...Whether you covered or stayed in for the move up, captured the early morning move down...it was a good day.

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Here is the Q PLUS/MINUS CHART FOR TODAY 12/17/2020...Remember this is derived from non-linear data, so don't assume a Peak or Valley is say this is supposed to be a Price High or Price Low. It has been very effective at showing price swings utilizing the polynomial.

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Based on the data I believed we were supposed to go down...But I also know they have a tendency to run it up (or down depending on the circumstances) off an open of the Regular Trading Hours, and they always like to 'gun for new highs or lows all the time. So I didn't buy into their rally. If I was wrong and they continued on no big deal because there are always trades for these markets and I am only showing you the ES. But with that being said you have to manage your risk and manage it well.
 
You have to put yourself in a position to capture consistent gains and take a small loss if you are wrong. Also there are times when you need to let your profits run but at other times you need to hit a target and take the money off the table. Every trade will be different, because after all we are dealing with infinite variance on a daily basis.
 
Here is the 90Min Plus/Minus Chart for this week, including the Peaks and Valleys of the Polynomial marked on the price chart. I think you will have to scroll down to see it all.

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Interesting how this was played, but not out of the ordinary. Rallied it up (on the Noon 5Min bar) to the 30Min 3x3 then sold it. Can it still go higher sure but what will I use to confirm, the 3x3. Unless both 5Min and 30Min 3x3 are broken best not to be long and stay with the trend.



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