Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

Don't forget about using the 3x3, use it to your advantage. It will help keep you safe and protects you from the Market Makers. Also it's a great tool to use for stops and trailing stops.
For the balance of this day there are only 2 Av's I would consider trading, 1030 and 1400. They have longer time durations between them. The best trades were in last night's moves.
 
Our 1030 AV trade set up well and turned into a nice sell. But notice support at the 3x3. I would have a breakeven stop with this trade now with a target of a minimum of 10 points. Never ever put yourself at great risk, as we all well know anything can happen.
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From the 1030 AV close until just a moment ago the trade did well. Here is a 5min view
and 30Min view. I would have covered at 10 points. 1300 AV and then 1400 AV are next but I would skip the 1300 and wait until 1400 to see what develops.

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There was opportunity from the 1030AV to Noon AV...here it is the final look from the 5min view: I am not fond of taking trades when the time frames are close together. You had/have a Noon/1300/1400 and then 1530. I would wait until the 1400 set up or just call it a day from the overnight and 1030 trade.

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Here is the view of the 90Min N-1 Forecast Chart, it was calculated the same way with the same parameters and begins on Sunday evening through today (Friday). If you look at this closely you will see a 10:30 AV on the 90Min today that goes to the 1500 AV and is likely why the market continued down and ignored any reversal at Noon. All you got was a reaction but not a trend change. (1400 falls inside of 1500 so 1400 should be interesting)

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Here is an update...They made a new low at 1240 during the 1300 AV and at 1250 the market moved through the 3X3 on the 5Min and hasn't looked back except for some resistance when the market hit the 30Min 3x3. See Below: I am not opposed to selling 1400 but would not be in a rush to sell it. At least have the market go through the 3x3 at least once, maybe even wait until they pop it again and come back down through it the second time.


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Now at 1500 we have a 90min AV but it is looking like a 0 (Zero) based on the N-1 90Min Chart. Higher time frame data points 0 (Zero's) may be acceptable at a 3 value data point which is near 0 and for this particular case. See the 90min N-1 Chart. That would mean a Price High at 1500. The market breaks the 5min 3x3 for the second time, we could have a sell developing here

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Look at what you had working against you for a sell. They brought the 5min back above the 3x3, the 30Min wasn't even close to changing trends, well above it's 3x3, and same could be said regarding the 90min...the result a spike Price High. They may roll it back down again. Even though what I presented today was from a sophisticated data model, the best tool in the box is this simple 3x3 Displaced Moving Average.

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Here is the ES 90min for the entire week, from Monday 12/14 to Friday 12/18/2020

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Here is the ES 30Min for Monday 12/14/2020

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After the Opening this evening I expect a move up until 2100, after that you may be able to sell it. Sometime between 0630 and 0730 we should get a low put in place and the market could move up until around 1130-Noon and possibly even until 1300. This my perspective based on 0's (Zero's) and the Av's described on Friday. I will always utilize the 3x3 to confirm these moves, to ride out a trade and I never ever risk much at all. There's a bigger move happening during the RTH tomorrow than overnight. Quite the opposite of the Friday overnight and RTH.

Staying on the correct side of the 3x3 is what I call the safe zone. You can game this but you better know what you're doing. If you try to game it don't be surprised if the market spikes against you, or if you take a good size hit. You can oppose the 3x3 completely and try to sell a top or buy a bottom, I've done it but I can't recommend it, just too risky. When I see the market overlapping the 3x3 all that tells me is the market is trying to make up it's mind as to what it wants to do, it still can go either way. Be prepared!
 
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