Here is a new algorithm I wrote, (most fail) but this one has my attention. So I thought I would share it with you. I'll get into the details of it over time and how each move was determined. Actually they are calculated the same way (N-1) with only 1 parameter difference. For now take a look at todays results and the forecast. Also I have included the chart for tomorrow, maybe some of you will figure out how the signals were generated. This is for the 30MIN ES Chart and of course this can be done for any market or time frame. I'll work on making a better presentation over the weekend. But for now this will do.
Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings
- Thread starter interdim
- Start date
Let's take a look at what has happened so far in the night session. Here's the forecast ES 30MIN Chart again for 12/11/2020:
N-1 is a 0 (Zero) that is indicated at 2000, but you have to take -1 from that time period which makes a high probability that 1930 will be a Price High. It goes to the next signal (2230...N-1 makes it 2200) which is not a 0 (Zero) but an AV Signal, usually more than half of them will be Price Lows. Now look at what has just occurred in the market, almost a 12 point drop. These are really easy to follow and like I said I present more details later.
N-1 is a 0 (Zero) that is indicated at 2000, but you have to take -1 from that time period which makes a high probability that 1930 will be a Price High. It goes to the next signal (2230...N-1 makes it 2200) which is not a 0 (Zero) but an AV Signal, usually more than half of them will be Price Lows. Now look at what has just occurred in the market, almost a 12 point drop. These are really easy to follow and like I said I present more details later.
Our next signal is another AV that occurs at 2330 based on the 12/11/2020 N-1 Forecast Chart. Here is my main tool I use for every market and time I follow. It's the 3x3 Displaced Moving Average. (A 3 bar average of the Close moved forward (Displaced) 3 bars in advance. It's nothing new but it does keep you on the correct side of the market. I use the 5Min and 30Min DMA's with price, or any time frame for that matter. You learn much about the strength or weakness of a market using this tool.
The 30Min again and the 5Min: The market couldn't get above the 5Min DMA, pretty weak at that time and the strong hands sold it again when it was touched. Remember AV's will usually be Price Lows a little over 50% of the time.
The 30Min again and the 5Min: The market couldn't get above the 5Min DMA, pretty weak at that time and the strong hands sold it again when it was touched. Remember AV's will usually be Price Lows a little over 50% of the time.
We broke and stayed above the 3x3 on the 5min. We had a Double Bottom with the AV'S. On the 30Min you hit the 3x3, I expect after some initial resistance there it will go through it and make Price Highs.
0030 is a N-1 0100 (0) Zero, and so is 0300 N-1 0330 on the 12-11-2020 forecast chart. We look for Price Highs at those times. You have an AV (0130) in between, and it looks choppy until after 0130.
0030 is a N-1 0100 (0) Zero, and so is 0300 N-1 0330 on the 12-11-2020 forecast chart. We look for Price Highs at those times. You have an AV (0130) in between, and it looks choppy until after 0130.
Getting late here ... can you add some color here as what an “AV” is and the significance of the “0” points?
Tnx!
T
Tnx!
T
0 (Zero's) which I can only define as those data point values as being 1.0 or less on the N-1 Forecast Chart. (Yes you may see them occur at 1.3, etc., but closer to Zero the better.) A very high percentage of 0's are tops and sells.
Av's are greater than 1.0/1.3, etc., and they have a tendency to be Price Lows a little over 50% of the time. But they can be a Price High or Low reversal.
How do you find the 0's (Zero's) or Av's? Just look at the N-1 Forecast Chart, they are represented by the data points that are valleys only (a higher data point occurs before and after them) on the chart. All you do is subtract -1 from the valley (that represents a time from the data point valley) and that time will be the reversal swing point.
Once you learn these simple mechanics, you can tell more about the Price or Market Behavior from these charts and their forecast, in other words what's coming at you.
Av's are greater than 1.0/1.3, etc., and they have a tendency to be Price Lows a little over 50% of the time. But they can be a Price High or Low reversal.
How do you find the 0's (Zero's) or Av's? Just look at the N-1 Forecast Chart, they are represented by the data points that are valleys only (a higher data point occurs before and after them) on the chart. All you do is subtract -1 from the valley (that represents a time from the data point valley) and that time will be the reversal swing point.
Once you learn these simple mechanics, you can tell more about the Price or Market Behavior from these charts and their forecast, in other words what's coming at you.