Dark underworld of forex trading: "A-books" and "B-books"

ok, I think I'm done. My account balance on May 27 is exactly what it was on May 1, after having been up over 30%. Just needed to give myself a pep talk to encourage me to stick with it.
 
loyek590 said:
ok, I think I'm done. My account balance on May 27 is exactly what it was on May 1, after having been up over 30%. Just needed to give myself a pep talk to encourage me to stick with it.
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On your main account? That can't be good for your health and performance. You need to dial down the leverage.
 
kut2k2 said:
All that article says is that random trading is unprofitable, something even a lot of idiots have figured out already. Nobody needs a MC sim to tell them that only a small percentage of long sequences of coin flips are going to be significantly heads. Nobody needs a MC sim to tell them that only a small percentage of casino players are significant winners. Likewise nobody but a complete idiot thinks trading randomly has any hope of being significantly profitable. Sure, every now and then some mega-idiot posts here that money management is all that matters but even most ETers who can't find positive expectation know that they'll never be long-term profitable without it. First find an edge,then apply the money management. This is just another blog article killing time and space by belaboring the obvious.
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Although I support your Kelly work, I think you are wrong here. Trader A makes 100% and trader B makes 100%. How do you know which one of the two has skill and which trades randomly? The idea is not that random trading is unprofitable but that commissions turn profitable trading to unprofitable.

Surely, trading randomly has 50% chance of being profitable without commissions. It also allows high returns for lucky traders. if you are a lucky person you do not need a system or algo.
 
Sergio77 said:
Although I support your Kelly work, I think you are wrong here. Trader A makes 100% and trader B makes 100%. How do you know which one of the two has skill and which trades randomly? The idea is not that random trading is unprofitable but that commissions turn profitable trading to unprofitable.

Surely, trading randomly has 50% chance of being profitable without commissions. It also allows high returns for lucky traders. if you are a lucky person you do not need a system or algo.
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well said, there's is a lot of luck in my strategy. I try to set it up so if I am unlucky I can still survive, and all the money is made catching a lucky trend.
 
xandman said:
On your main account? That can't be good for your health and performance. You need to dial down the leverage.
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no problem my friend, 1% a day is not a big swing for me. 30% a month is normal if it moves one way either for me or against me . I started off May up 30% the first week, got flat to deal with my crapped out computer and got back in after Mem day and lost 30% in two days. The last two days of May were quite forgiving and ended up for the Month of May up 10%.

But those are just the good months, most months are quite boring.
 
it started out thinking I was so gifted and unlike all others I could read the market. It ended up thinking that yes, I am probably better than most when it comes to reading the market about 10% of the time and I better come up with a protection plan for the 90% of the time when I am just normal.
 
i960 said:
If you're losing 30% in two days I'd argue you're doing something wrong.
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1% per day, no big deal, and for most traders the goal. So that's about 24% per month. But sometimes it all shows up in a few hours or few days. Up 30% first weeks in May, shutdown to fix computer, down 30% in two days, end month up 10%. What's the problem?

The problem occurs when month after month you can't make or lose 30% to save your soul. And at the end of the year you would have been better off just buying QQQ and watching tv.

If I'm going to lose 30%, how many days should it take before I can officially say, "I have no problem."?

And what would you argue someone who made more than 30% in two days is doing wrong?

What is the proper amount a trader should make or lose in two days?

And what does two days have to do with it?
 
and we are only talking 30%. When it goes really bad you will remember when you were bitching about just 30%

that other 70% is there for a reason
 
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