Dangerous Times Ahead

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I don't know how many of you were trading when the 1987 crash happened. That was the week when many great fortunes were made or lost. These days with so many of us playing a leveraged game either via prop shops or using the emini leverage; there is great danger and also great potential ahead as we approach deadline for war.

Just wondering if anyone has thought it through, how do plan to handle the coming volatility?

What if in the early days of bombings we get word that the evil one has been killed, I am certain the Dow will sky rocket 400 - 500 points. Have you guys ever seen the emini locked limit up? or conversely what if saddam uses chemical weapons and US has no choice but to use its nuclear weapons, what will happen to the price of crude?

Starting mid next week I for one will be trading 1/8 - 1/4 of my normal trading size, preservation of capital is more important to me than pure speculation as the events unfold.
 
I do not plan to trade after the war starts. Too risky, imo. You could get 100 pt moves either way at any time. I will wait it out.
 
Saddam has already threatened to set fire to the oil fields, when the Us attacks. experts expect that it will take 3 years to fight the fire. Is it all worth in the end? Is nobody questioning the sense of a war? After spending billions of dollars on a war in a Afghanistan Bin laden still isn't captured. The us-government obviously still doesn't understand that you don't fight terrorists and terrorist regimes with conventional warfare.
 
Quote from Ditch:

Saddam has already threatened to set fire to the oil fields, when the Us attacks. experts expect that it will take 3 years to fight the fire. Is it all worth in the end? Is nobody questioning the sense of a war? After spending billions of dollars on a war in a Afghanistan Bin laden still isn't captured. The us-government obviously still doesn't understand that you don't fight terrorists and terrorist regimes with conventional warfare.
More...

What really irks me about this whole thing is the way the Bush administration has gone about this war. I believe Hussein is a dangerous man who needs to be removed, but it seems to me Bush is using the war to steer away from issues such as the economy, the markets, corporate fraud, and Cheney's Haliburton issues. Easy way for him to sweep quite a few issues under the rug and prop the economy up with defense spending. And I voted for Bush...

Edit: Not to mention him being on the TV at least twice each day talking up the war which pushed the markets down.
 
I was new to trading during the 1987 crash, and trading full S&P contracts. It was hairy. I sat in shock most of day (and following three or so), but my trading partner was trading like crazy. He made a bundle on crash day, and gave it all back the next day.

I am such a short term trader now that iIwon't change my size unless a war actually starts, and even then, only for a day or two.

If I am trading well, I may even increase size.

Jay
 
Sure it is worth ... for the Big Oil Interests. And who are the Big Oil Interests ...

Quote from Ditch:

Saddam has already threatened to set fire to the oil fields, when the Us attacks. experts expect that it will take 3 years to fight the fire. Is it all worth in the end? Is nobody questioning the sense of a war? After spending billions of dollars on a war in a Afghanistan Bin laden still isn't captured. The us-government obviously still doesn't understand that you don't fight terrorists and terrorist regimes with conventional warfare.
More...
 
This war is turning into big nonsense. The world economy is going into the crappers. Bush is just gone nuts now and there's no turning back. Iraq is NOT opec and they still control oil prices. God help us if Bush gets re-elected he won't stop with this nonsense. Get BIN LADEN before any war !
 
I was a trader during the 87 crash, the last war, and other events. I don't plan on changing anything. Just my normal .5% risk per-position.

Trading during the 87 crash was easy. It happened on a Monday and I had no positions going into it. I couldn't get up-to-date quotes so I just spent the day relaxing and watching the quotron.

The last war with Iraq was easy to trade initially. I went short with everyone else in August and was flat the night before bombs started falling. Once the air war started it was hard to trade because news kept moving the market in big swings. I remember one day when news came out that we dropped napalm. The market tanked because of worries it would provoke Iraq to use chemical weapons. 15 min. later the news was the napalm was used to light oil-filled tank traps. The market rallied all that it had lost. The worry back then was our green troops might have 10,000 dead fighting the worlds 4th largest army. The ease of the first night caused a relief rally. This time we might get just the opposite. Noone expects much of a battle. If Iraq uses chemical weapons and 1,000 dead or inqured Americans show up on the news, I think the market will tank.

Most likely scenario I see for now is UN doesn't approve another resolution, public opinion turns more negative, and Blair convinces Bush to hold off till the fall and let the French have their way until then. If that happens, we should get a brief rally followed by more of the same sideways action.
 
The last video we saw of the guy had him propped up with one working arm and looking more than just a little messed up. All we have heard from him since has been questionable audio tapes. He would not have resisted releasing a video on the one year anniversary of 9/11 if he was able to.

Max
 
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