Dangerous Times Ahead

Quote from zboy2854A:

Paul,

I would agree with you on most points except that in reality NO president really has the true power that turns an economy up or down. There are socioeconomic forces or waves that are much larger than any one president that cause the ups and downs. However, if we're going to blame/credit a person at all for our economic fortunes/misfortunes, that would have to be Alan Greenspan for his decades long meddling into the economy. It was his extension of all too easy credit that facilitated our huge runups, and also gave us the rope to hang ourselves.

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If so, the market will rally hard. The market has already tipped its hand that it wants to go higher, and it just wants to get past the uncertainty of the war. After it rallies, though, the fundamental market and economic reality will set in and back down we'll go. Great opportunities on both long and short sides.
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I agree that the Prez is largely a figurehead but they DO pass tax legislation (or veto same) and they negotiate with Congress and others that set policy - they have a substantial impact IMO. Also the confidence of the Nation in their leader matters too.

We are in complete agreement on the post-war scenario - the BIG Trend is still down - God Bless Volatility.

I would also point out that Greenspan RAISED interest rates 7 times in 1.5 years due to concerns about inflation but IMHO it was panicky and way overdone. That put the brakes on all the cheap venture capital out there, and companies like my wife's - young hi-tech startups that were living from venture capital round to venture capital round (of financing), suddenly found themselves cut off and broke. Not to mention they burned cash like there was no tommorrow.

Combine that with the hugely unrealistic projections of Internet advertising revenues (which a bunch of these companies had used as mainstay of business plan revenue) and they dropped like flies.

Regards,

Paul
 
Those who cry for peace, cry in vain. Do you not remember VP Chaney said shortly after 9/11 that we will not see an end to war perhaps in our lifetime. We were at war before 9/11 but did not know it.

For the first time in the history of the world, just one man carrying biological, chemical or nuclear weapons can murder hundreds of thousands or even millions by himself. How do you protect against that and at the same time protect liberties? I believe it is impossible. The world has changed forever and I do not think too many understand this. Moreover, there are even more powerful weapons of the electromagnetic variety that are in the hands of our enemies and have been and are being used against us with loss of life.

If you wish to know more about these weapons of world destruction, go to this link and read for a couple months:

http://www.cheniere.org/toc.html
 
Quote from links:

I don't know how many of you were trading when the 1987 crash happened. That was the week when many great fortunes were made or lost. These days with so many of us playing a leveraged game either via prop shops or using the emini leverage; there is great danger and also great potential ahead as we approach deadline for war.

Just wondering if anyone has thought it through, how do plan to handle the coming volatility?

What if in the early days of bombings we get word that the evil one has been killed, I am certain the Dow will sky rocket 400 - 500 points. Have you guys ever seen the emini locked limit up? or conversely what if saddam uses chemical weapons and US has no choice but to use its nuclear weapons, what will happen to the price of crude?

Starting mid next week I for one will be trading 1/8 - 1/4 of my normal trading size, preservation of capital is more important to me than pure speculation as the events unfold.
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i commend you for starting a good topic for a thread, but i didnt read more than two pages to see it turned into yet ANOTHER thread of everyone bitcihng or griping about the war irrespective of what side of the fence they are on. I AM SO SICK OF THIS WAR AND HASNT STARTED YET

KUDOS
 
Quote from Ron In-a-sauna:



i commend you for starting a good topic for a thread, but i didnt read more than two pages to see it turned into yet ANOTHER thread of everyone bitcihng or griping about the war irrespective of what side of the fence they are on. I AM SO SICK OF THIS WAR AND HASNT STARTED YET

KUDOS
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Yes, us traders are an emotional bunch, they say Trading is War.

Getting back to the topic of trading during times of uncertainty, I am thinking of buying April out of money (perhaps 5 points) QQQ puts and calls. I know the premiums are high but it may still be worthwhile. Just this past week, when the word got out of a fire in Staten Island, NY, the Dow dropped 100 points within minutes. Fasten your seat belts we may be in for a wild roller coaster ride where every rumor moves the mkt 100's of points...

Just wondering if others have thought of any stratergies?
 
I'll stick to my usual 2 pt target and 1 pt stop, worked fine today, which was pretty choppy, i guess. The only environment in which thta doesn't too good, is when you get good fast, smooth swings, but i haven't seen those in a very long time. Should that change i will consider a trailing stop instead of a fixed target.
 
This weekend was bandied about to go in: darkness of full moon offering cover. Take note Dan Rather didn't hang around long. Once the troops are in Turkey, look for inspectors to book. General Tommy Franks arrived in Central Command yesterday and over 100K troops are already in Kuwait.
 
Quote from buff:

This weekend was bandied about to go in: darkness of full moon offering cover. Take note Dan Rather didn't hang around long. Once the troops are in Turkey, look for inspectors to book. General Tommy Franks arrived in Central Command yesterday and over 100K troops are already in Kuwait.
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Buff,

Do you ever hit the buy button when you mean to sell. :)

":darkness of *full* moon offering cover"....?
 
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