Damned if we do, and damned if we don't !

[bearclaw]

The administration made history by going into Iraq on the grounds of WMD's, unfortunately, the history being made will go down as a monumental tragedy

: Ponder this .. " if U.S. troops find WMD's in Iraq, they will discover those weapons in the most deadly manner that they were intended for, on the other hand, if U.S. troops don't find WMD's, then the United States will be in a unique, and very undesirable position indeed "

 

[bearclaw]

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[aphexcoil]

Quote from bearclaw:

The administration made history by going into Iraq on the grounds of WMD's, unfortunately, the history being made will go down as a monumental tragedy

If we didn't find WMD's then the United States would have to plant them somewhere within Iraq and then frame Saddam's regime.

 

[OPTIONAL777]

Quote from bearclaw:

The administration made history by going into Iraq on the grounds of WMD's, unfortunately, the history being made will go down as a monumental tragedy

: Ponder this .. " if U.S. troops find WMD's in Iraq, they will discover those weapons in the most deadly manner that they were intended for, on the other hand, if U.S. troops don't find WMD's, then the United States will be in a unique, and very undesirable position indeed "

Even if we do find them, they will say:

"The Americans planted them."
"The Americans sold them to Iraq."
"It was Saddam's only defense against attacks from imperialist countries like the USA."

Yada, yada, yada.

People are jealous and afraid of the USA. Accept it.

If they fear us, we win.

 

[OHLC]

It is about the $, not even the oil.
If the global trend was to continue, the $ would be increasingly replaced by the euro to trade oil and other commodities.
As a consequence, there would be significantly less demand for the $. It would be back to its national currency value, which is not much, since the US has so much debt.

So, either Iraq is taken and a strong message sent to other energy exporters, or the $ goes into rublization mode...


OHLC

 

[buzzy2]

Quote from OHLC:
As a consequence, there would be significantly less demand for the $.

Do you have a specific number or %??
I don't think so.

And by the way, that's not how international trade works. The world demand dollars because the US economy is the most resilient economy in the world.

US Monetary policy, with all its flaws, is the best in the world.

In many other countries, people keep their life savings in dollars, and nobody is pointing a gun to their head, they just trust more Greenspan than the idiot who's managing monetary policy in their own country.

 

[OHLC]

Quote from buzzy2:


In many other countries, people keep their life savings in dollars, and nobody is pointing a gun to their head, they just trust more Greenspan than the idiot who's managing monetary policy in their own country.

Was true until recently, the largest of the countries you are refering to became a net dollar exporter last month.
Regarding the demand, you are right on the two points : the role of the $ as a reserve currency (major point) and its role for individuals (minor point).
Regarding international trade, you are wrong, the $ is not used because of any preference.

So, if the the role of the $ in international energy trade became less proeminent, its role in the trade of other ressources would also be affected. As a consequence, its role as a reserve currency would also be affected, and, at the end of the chain, he individuals will also favor the leading currency.

This trend has already started, you can see it in every aspects, even the less important ones, like the individual savings in some countries you refered to.

A US admin in post Iraq should send a strong message that the US will not let this trend go a loot further.

OHLC

 

[buzzy2]

Quote from OHLC:

Regarding international trade, you are wrong, the $ is not used because of any preference.

It is, exporters always set their prices using the currency most advantageous to them. They ask for dollars because they prefer dollars. It is not an arbitrary choice. The US pays its imports in dollars because others accept them, not because the US is threatening other countries with military invasion, that's preposterous.

Even China accepts dollars.

 

[OHLC]

Nope, this is what I try to explain you.
On casual matters, whatever currency is used, but not in oil contracts. This is why eurozone countries have to buy oil in $ whereas the use of euros would benefit both parties.
This is why Iraq oil exported in Euros would have threatened the $. Then domino effect...

OHLC

 

[OHLC]

In a different wording : exporters can ask for whatever currency they wish, provided they choose the $, which was the obvious choice for decades, an usage inherited from before the euro inception.

Now, they can choose the euro and get liberated or choose the $.

OHLC