Choppy Trading Week ahead in equities?
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
There will be few government reports released this week that will have much of an impact on equity prices.
This past Saturday we have entered the FOMC Blackout period which will last through the next FOMC Rate decision on Wednesday, June 14th and conclude at midnight on June 15th.
Since there is no significant data, we are certain Fed Policy makers will have been able to breathe a bit easier after the debt limit breach was averted.
Next week is going to be considerably different. Why? the Consumer Price Index will be released a day prior to the FED rate decision and may have an 11th hour impact on the policy makers decision to raise or stay firm at current short term fed fund rate. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the prospect for rate changes has been anything but sanguine. May 5th there was only an 8.5% chance of another .25 increase and as recently as a week ago there was an over 60% chance and as of todays date the tool is projecting less that a 22% increase by .25 to the .0525-.0550 area. . .
As I said about CPI at the moment the market is pricing in no change but a CPI figure reversing the slow downtrend in current price levels could immediately change the expectations for no change this go round.
Understanding expectations will allow you to trade with more confidence when there is a sudden change in policy directives!