Daily Journal With New Model (not Technical or FundamentalAnalysis)
- Thread starter galvinlee888
- Start date
INTC - close lower
AMD - close higher
FB - close higher
MSFT - close lower
AMD - close higher
FB - close higher
MSFT - close lower
10/19 Prediction
INTC - close lower
AMD - close higher
FB - close higher
MSFT - close higher
The cloud server is down and it takes me forever to run those simulation in my home pc.
INTC - close lower
AMD - close higher
FB - close higher
MSFT - close higher
The cloud server is down and it takes me forever to run those simulation in my home pc.
10/20 Prediction
INTC - close higher
AMD - close higher
FB - close higher
MSFT - close higher
INTC - close higher
AMD - close higher
FB - close higher
MSFT - close higher
Congrats, you are at coin toss levels. Without listing the cumulative net $$ gain/loss, the win rate itself does not have a lot of meaning.
Don't get me wrong 48% is fine as long as your cumulative net profit vs loss is skewed in your favor.
With just a 60% up/down prediction rate you still don't have tradeable information.
10/21 Prediction
INTC - close lower
AMD - close lower
FB- close lower
MSFT- close lower
INTC - close lower
AMD - close lower
FB- close lower
MSFT- close lower
I ran some numbers for you that make more sense than a win loss ratio.
I started with 10K, 2500 for each stock.
If the prediction was for a lower close the next day I sold short.
If the prediction was for a higher close I bought.
I closed and reversed a position when the prediction changed. (So for AMD I sold at the close on Oct 9 , Reversed my position on Oct 15 and Oct 21 and am now short.)
I didn't use stops or profit targets. It kind of looks like if I did the loss would have been greater.
As it turned out if you cashed in tonight you would be down 2.26%.
If you had just bought and held SPY you would only be down 1.19%
I started with 10K, 2500 for each stock.
If the prediction was for a lower close the next day I sold short.
If the prediction was for a higher close I bought.
I closed and reversed a position when the prediction changed. (So for AMD I sold at the close on Oct 9 , Reversed my position on Oct 15 and Oct 21 and am now short.)
I didn't use stops or profit targets. It kind of looks like if I did the loss would have been greater.
As it turned out if you cashed in tonight you would be down 2.26%.
If you had just bought and held SPY you would only be down 1.19%