Daily Journal With New Model (not Technical or FundamentalAnalysis)

[Tradex]

10/9 Prediction

INTC - close lower
AMD - close lower
FB - close lower
MSFT - close lower

Note: "INTC - close lower" means the model predict INTC will close lower than the current close price ($52.82 as in 10/9) on next Monday close (10/12)

Sounds interesting, but we still don't know where your stop is located.
Stock XYZ can close 1 penny higher than the previous close but lose $10 during the day (a 15% drawdown for instance), before closing higher.
So yes, you "won" the bet (a 0.0001% profit for example) but you had to endure a 15% drawdown.

 

[They]

Sounds interesting, but we still don't know where your stop is located.
Stock XYZ can close 1 penny higher than the previous close but lose $10 during the day (a 15% drawdown for instance), before closing higher.
So yes, you "won" the bet (a 0.0001% profit for example) but you had to endure a 15% drawdown.

I think he is saying it will go +1 before it goes -1 which are his target and stop. But unfortunately this still does not account for large gaps. Can anyone say "after the close Netflix Earnings"?

 

[Tradex]

I think he is saying it will go +1 before it goes -1 which are his target and stop

Let's say ABC stock closes at 105.
Where are the stop/take-profit for the next trade, according to you?

 

[easymon1]

Currently I have developed a new model (not technical nor fundamental) that able to predict the price direction for particular stock in the next trading day with accuracy > 60%.

For example, the close price for stock ABC is $105 today, the model will predict if ABC will close higher or lower than $105 for next trading day, e.g. "close lower" means the stock will close < $105 in the close of next trading day and vice versa.

The model will make the prediction about an hour before market close today.

I have randomly select 4 popular stocks and will start live demo on this.

FB (FaceBook)
MSFT (Microsoft)
AMD (Advanced Micro Device)
INTC (Intel)

Let have fun on this

Do your thing man, post those numbers for 100 days.
What do the previous 100 day's results of this method show?

 

[deaddog]

Looking at the method I believe if the signal is to close higher you buy at the end of the day and sell and reverse the next day at the close if the signal show lower. If the signal the next day at the close shows higher you continue to hold. No target no stop.

 

[galvinlee888]

Looking at the method I believe if the signal is to close higher you buy at the end of the day and sell and reverse the next day at the close if the signal show lower. If the signal the next day at the close shows higher you continue to hold. No target no stop.

Or you can set the stop loss and target using the standard variation (1:1 ratio)

 

[galvinlee888]

10/9 Prediction

INTC - close lower
AMD - close lower
FB - close lower
MSFT - close lower

Note: "INTC - close lower" means the model predict INTC will close lower than the current close price ($52.82 as in 10/9) on next Monday close (10/12)

Unfortunately all the trade turn out to be loser.

INTC: Lose
AMD-Lose
FB- Lose
MSFT - Lose

Current win rate = 0%

 

[They]

Unfortunately all the trade turn out to be loser.

INTC: Lose
AMD-Lose
FB- Lose
MSFT - Lose

Current win rate = 0%

So what did this gap up do to your 1:1 Risk Reward ratio?

 

[deaddog]

Or you can set the stop loss and target using the standard variation (1:1 ratio)

Do you have a suggestion as to how to trade these predictions?

 

[galvinlee888]

Prediction for 10/12
INTC- close lower. SL/PT = $0.8
AMD- close lower. SL/PT = $1.5
FB - close lower. SL/PT = $8
MSFT - close lower. SL/PT = $3.5