Daily FX Market Comment 17/2

EUR/USD 1.0737. EUR turned down from just below 1.0850 instead of 1.0865 suggested on Friday & broke below support at 1.0740 this morning. This development is bearish for EUR in the short term & should target 1.0675/65. Resistance is at 1.0755/70.

USD/CHF 1.3684. Dollar reversed direction from 1.3515 without meeting the ideal 1.3490/80 target set on Friday. It should now find support near 1.3635 or 1.3610 for a move higher to 1.3765/85 or 1.3845/65. Minor support is at 1.3655/50.

USD/JPY 118.34. In very short term, 118.55/60 should halt its upside attempts for a fall to 118.05/117.95. On a bigger picture 119.80/90 should be taken out for Dollar to attain some stability.

GBP/USD 1.5768. Sell on any corrective rise to 1.5830/50 with stop above 1.5895/00 for fall to 1.5700 or 1.5680/65.

EUR/CHF 1.4685. EUR may grind higher to 1.4715/30, while above 1.4655/50.

EUR/JPY..127.05. EUR went above our suggested resistance level 128.55 but fell back quickly. Now 127.55/75 area should halt its upside corrective attempts for a drift down to 126.65 or 126.35.

EUR/GBP 0.6803. EUR met our target 0.6825 comfortably. Some corrective consolidation is likely between 0.6760 & 0.6835 now. Unexpected break above 0.6835 will push EUR up to 0.6860.

AUD/USD 0.5988. A clear break above 0.5995 will yield 0.6025/30.

USD/CAD 1.5007. Dollar’s short term decline may extend to 1.4965/50, after which bounce to 1.5065/1.5100 is anticipated.
 
Some rumors coming about a rate cut at next ECB Policy Meeting (6 March). :

The IMF may have handed the ECB at the week end the smoking economic gun it needs for a near-term rate cut, and ECB President Duisenberg seemed more dovish than previously, but continuing divisions on the ECB governing Council amid hopes for an end to war-induced uncertainty may keep the central bank on hold for a while longer.

It looks like eur/usd will try lower in coming days around 1.0660, then if 1.0660 area holds, an upmove is expecting above 1.0850.

Good luck.
 
Reuters Poll - 23 of 35 economists see ECB rate cut at March 6 meeting.
Reuters Poll - 14 of 23 expecting March ECB cut think half point most likely move.
 
EUR/USD 1.0789. Against our expectations EUR’s downside stalled above 1.0715 itself instead of ideal 1.0675 yesterday. Short term pictures hint at advances towards 1.0820/30 while 1.0755/50 supports. A 4 hourly close above 1.0810 will add further stability to EUR.

USD/CHF 1.3564. Dollar’s weakness should extend up to 1.3500/1.3490. Resistance is at 1.3610/20. Minor support is at 1.3515.

USD/JPY 117.89. In very short term, 118.25/35 should Dollar’s strength for a fall to 117.45/35 or 117.15. On a bigger picture 119.80/90 should be taken out for Dollar to attain some stability.

GBP/USD 1.5864. Prefer to watch how Cable moves in 1.5885-1.5930 area for some time. As long as 1.6055/65 area is not broken convincingly on big pictures. Cable is likely to remain under pressure & may test 1.5700/1.5685.

EUR/CHF 1.4636. EUR may grind lower to 1.4610/00 while below 1.4665/70.

EUR/JPY 127.20. EUR seems to have met one target near 126.25 yesterday. One more test towards that area cannot be ruled out as long as it trades below 127.75/80.

EUR/GBP 0.6798. Consolidation is likely to continue for some more time between 0.6760 & 0.6835. Break above 0.6835 will push EUR up to 0.6860.

AUD/USD 0.6053. Upside potential should extend to 0.6080/90. Support is at 0.6020/05.

USD/CAD 1.4911. Dollar should decline to 1.4825/20 while below 1.4965/80.
 
EUR/USD.. .1.0795. No change in view. Resistance near 1.0915/35 has so far managed to contain EUR's strength. It has now entered into correction, which is likely to continue for a while. Supports are at 1.0665, 1.0625 & 1.0560. Cannot rule out testing of any of these supports once more.

USD/CHF.. 1.3560.No change in view. Dollar's corrective phase is expected to last for some time. Resistances are at 1.3705, 1.3775/80 & 1.3835/50.

USD/JPY..117.40. Dollar has turned bearish during last week. It should now drop to 116.80/60 or 116.20 levels on clear break of 117.25/15 support area. Monthly triangle support for this month is situated near 115.00/10. Break of this level (Not expected) will throw up alarming downside potential.

GBP/USD..1.5855. Cable broke below support near 1.6025 without any fight & should target 1.5700/1.5685 now. Resistances are at 1.5950 & 1.6045/60.

Regards.
 
EUR/USD 1.0749. As expected EUR tested close to 1.0825 yesterday before the sell off. Nothing much to add today as EUR continues to consolidate between 1.0725 & 1.0830/45. Break of either side is needed to gauge the future moves.

USD/CHF 1.3587. Resistance near 1.3615 pushed Dollar down to our target near 1.3490 yesterday. USD is expected to trade in the recent range between 1.3490 & 1.3625. One more down move to 1.3465/55 cannot be ruled out while below 1.3625/30.

USD/JPY 117.38. One third wave target seems to have been met near 116.95/00 but needs to be confirmed. Short term bounce to 117.85/90 is possible now. Supports are at 117.15 & 116.95.

GBP/USD 1.5741. Inability to break 1.5890 pushed Cable lower again to our target window near 1.5700 yesterday. Now it should drift further down to 1.5665/60 levels. Resistances are at 1.5785 & 1.5800/05.

EUR/CHF 1.4603. EUR should drift lower to 1.4575/70 in short term while below 1.4625/30.

EUR/JPY 126.20. EUR should go lower to 125.60/45 as long as resistance in 126.65/80 area halts its advances.

EUR/GBP 0.6828. One more grind higher to 0.6860 is looked for while above 0.6815/05.

AUD/USD 0.6044. Upside potential should extend to 0.6105/15 now. Support is at 0.6020/05.

USD/CAD 1.4961. No change. Dollar should decline to 1.4825/20 while below 1.4985/1.5000.
 
EUR/USD 1.0790. No change in view. EUR continues to consolidate between 1.0725 & 1.0830/45. Break of either side is needed to gauge the future moves. Short term rise to 1.0820/25 is possible while 1.0770 supports.

USD/CHF 1.3542. No change in view. Resistance near 1.3625 pushed Dollar down to 1.3525 yesterday. USD is expected to trade in the recent range between 1.3490 & 1.3625. One more down move to 1.3465/55 cannot be ruled out while below 1.3625/30.

USD/JPY 117.38. Basically no change in view One third wave target seems to have been met near 116.95/00 but needs to be confirmed. Short term bounce to 117.85/90 is expected now. Before that a short downside test to 116.85/60 is looked for.

GBP/USD 1.5851. Cable turned up from 1.5715 itself yesterday. Now short term thrust higher to 1.5885/95 is a possibility. Supports are at 1.5815 & 1.5785.

EUR/CHF 1.4619. Some consolidation between 1.4590 & 1.4660 is likely now.

EUR/JPY 126.39. No change in view EUR should go lower to 125.60/45 as long as resistance in 126.65/80 area halts its advances.

EUR/GBP 0.6805. EUR is likely to consolidate between 0.6785 & 0.6845 for some time.

AUD/USD 0.6080. No change in view Upside potential should extend to 0.6105/15 now. Support is at 0.6035/20.

USD/CAD 1.4919. No change. Dollar should decline to 1.4825/20 while below 1.4985/1.5000.
 
EUR/USD 1.0753. The suggested rise materialized. No change in view. EUR continues to consolidate between 1.0715 & 1.0830/45. Break of either side is needed to gauge the future moves. Short term drop to 1.0710/05 is possible while 1.0785 resists.

USD/CHF 1.3594. No change in view. USD is confined to recent suggested range so far. Short term grind higher to 1.3655/60 cannot be ruled out while above 1.3565/60.

USD/JPY 117.68. Dollar is so far moving along projected lines so far. Corrective rise is likely to hit 118.05/10 or 118.30/40, while supports at 117.40 or 117.25 hold the downside.

GBP/USD 1.5791. Cable turned down from 1.5875, just shy of our suggested level 1.5885 yesterday. Now short term drift down to 1.5745/40 is looked for while below 1.5815/25.

EUR/CHF 1.4621. No change. Consolidation between 1.4590 & 1.4660 is likely to continue for some more time.

EUR/JPY 126.55. There are no clear signs yet of a bottom traded near 126.00. Break of 126.65/85 area will be slightly positive for EUR & will increase its chances of test to 127.35/50. As long as 126.85 is not taken out, chances of move lower to 125.60 are alive.

EUR/GBP 0.6811. EUR is consolidating between 0.6785 & 0.6845 as expected. One more drift down to 0.6785/80 cannot be ruled out while below 0.6820/25.

AUD/USD 0.6053. No change in view Upside potential should extend to 0.6105/15 now. Support is at 0.6035/20.

USD/CAD 1.4934. No change. Short term rise to 1.4975/80 is possible. Support is at 1.4910.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top