Yeah, I agree...there simply is not enough good news coming out of the US at this time....once the markets start performing worse it will be even worse, all the foreign stock owners will be selling their stocks and converting their USD back into their own currency...not very good for the Dollar
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Daily EUR/USD trades
- Thread starter romik
- Start date
And then, even longer-term, you have - and who knows what if anything will come of this, but - the talk of pricing oil in euros instead of dollars, the euro as "secondary reserve currency"... maybe one day to be primary reserve currency. Nations rejecting US dollar hegemony for the good old "basket of currencies", like Kuwait did the other day.
Still, the thought that the EUR/USD will break below the trendline has crossed my mind - but I hadn't considered it seriously enough. Now, I'm thinking that it is not unlikely. We'll have to wait and see. Either way, it should be a good trade.
See, no one is really talking about a full-fledged reversal in the EUR/USD. I think everyone sees this as a temporary pullback, and on every rally, it's like "this is it, we're going for 1.40..." Imagine what happens when the longer-term trendline breaks, and the dollar shorts have to scramble to cover. A gold mine if you're short the EUR/USD!
So the question is, which do we hit first: 1.29 or 1.4? We'll have to see. But be ready to go short or long when the time comes. We should all actually prefer short - we'll make more money that way.
See, no one is really talking about a full-fledged reversal in the EUR/USD. I think everyone sees this as a temporary pullback, and on every rally, it's like "this is it, we're going for 1.40..." Imagine what happens when the longer-term trendline breaks, and the dollar shorts have to scramble to cover. A gold mine if you're short the EUR/USD!
So the question is, which do we hit first: 1.29 or 1.4? We'll have to see. But be ready to go short or long when the time comes. We should all actually prefer short - we'll make more money that way.
assuming I am correct - this reaction to the downtrend, will reach $1.3464 ish.
Quote from grazia_s:
that's true...we could see a real switch here in the value of the USD...kind of scary.
Yeah, it's VERY scary - it's the whole reason that I got into currency trading. Originally, I just wanted to simply hedge against the dollar going down the tubes. Now I want to do that, and make a profit as well.
It's already at 1.3451....I think we will see 1.3400 by Friday..next week will be slow and then we have NFPs which could show more movement to one side. I think there is a higher chance we hit 1.29 before 1.40. I think 1.40 will happen if the US goes into a full-fledged recession. Which is certainly possible. Who knows what else could happen, the Summer has not even really started!