Good morning everyone,
If you have read my analysis for last Friday, you know that I had a very bearish bias for that day, but expected the market to stay in it's range from the day before.
Very early in the EU session I took a short trade, to fade a small up move. I could have made a maximum of 237 Ticks on that one trade, but manged the exit very poorly and got out with only 10 Ticks of profit.
Ok, even if I had managed the trade perfectly I never would have capitalized on the whole move and got out at about 60 - 80 Ticks, because I wasn't expecting the market to break out of it's range.
As you can see the relative volume indicator I use to determine day-types, showed a significant deficit (-183K contracts) in trading volume on Friday.
Normally if the volume is this far below the average, the market doesn't leave it's range.
Today's analysis
^CL M60
^CL M10 TPO/Volume Profile Daily
If you have any questions about my analysis, please feel free to ask!
Gl & Hf trading
Linusoverload
If you have read my analysis for last Friday, you know that I had a very bearish bias for that day, but expected the market to stay in it's range from the day before.
Very early in the EU session I took a short trade, to fade a small up move. I could have made a maximum of 237 Ticks on that one trade, but manged the exit very poorly and got out with only 10 Ticks of profit.
Ok, even if I had managed the trade perfectly I never would have capitalized on the whole move and got out at about 60 - 80 Ticks, because I wasn't expecting the market to break out of it's range.
As you can see the relative volume indicator I use to determine day-types, showed a significant deficit (-183K contracts) in trading volume on Friday.
Normally if the volume is this far below the average, the market doesn't leave it's range.
Today's analysis
- Fundamentals
- US/China Trade war import duty on WTI
- Futures roll over to August 2018 (Following price levels may vary for you)
- Futures roll over to August 2018 (Following price levels may vary for you)
- Technicals
- Major selloff on Friday on relatively low volume
- Broke the previous low at 64,22
- Expected retest of that area (64,21 - 64,37)
- Broke the previous low at 64,22
- Expected retest of that area (64,21 - 64,37)
^CL M60
^CL M10 TPO/Volume Profile Daily
- The market should stay bearish for the day, but I don't expect another big move, because of the low relative volume we are seeing
- I will be looking to fade a correction into the 64,21 - 64,37 area
- If the market has the power to push through that resistance zone I will fade it in the 64,75 - 64,85 area, which aligns perfectly with the 61,80% Fib.
- This is a decision making zone. If the market can stay above it, I will enter into a long position on a retest
- Other key levels to watch:
- I will be looking to fade a correction into the 64,21 - 64,37 area
- If the market has the power to push through that resistance zone I will fade it in the 64,75 - 64,85 area, which aligns perfectly with the 61,80% Fib.
- This is a decision making zone. If the market can stay above it, I will enter into a long position on a retest
- Other key levels to watch:
- 63,62 - 63,77 (Major support, potential profit taking target)
- 63,32 - 63,42 (Support, profit taking target)
- 62,97 - 63,06 (Support)
- 65,12 - 65,22 (Resistance)
- 65,47 - 65,62 (Resistance)
- 63,32 - 63,42 (Support, profit taking target)
- 62,97 - 63,06 (Support)
- 65,12 - 65,22 (Resistance)
- 65,47 - 65,62 (Resistance)
- Verdict
- I'm looking to fade a correction of Fridays move, but won't expect the market to put in another big move to the down side
- Possible bias switch to long if the market can hold above the 64,75 - 64,85 area
- Possible bias switch to long if the market can hold above the 64,75 - 64,85 area
Gl & Hf trading
Linusoverload
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