Daily Crude Oil Day Trading Analysis 15/06/18

[linusoverload]

Good morning everybody,

Yesterday we saw extremely low relative volume in the CL, with a reading of -233K contracts.

This low activity was responsible for the slow movement and only a daily range of 80 ticks.
I was able to execute one trade from yesterdays analysis early in the session and stopped trading the market after i watched the slow movement for another 2 hours.


Today's Analysis:

• Fundamentals

- The market is still driven by the good inventory report on Wednesday, but lacks a lot of momentum to potentially break its massive selloff to the upside.
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• Technicals

- Struggling to hold above the 38,20% Fib. Retracement of the previous major selloff
- Lack of volume and momentum to the upside
- Expecting a slow range day with a slight bearish bias

- Specific levels to watch:

• 67,30 - 67,14 (Strong resistance, potential reversal)
• 66,96 - 66,85 (General low volume area, 38,20% Fib., potential entry)
• 66.68 - 66,63 (Low volume node before high volume node, potential TP)

• 66,48 - 66,41 (Support zone, yesterday's low)
• 66,23 - 66,18 (Support zone, potential TP)
• 65,95 - 65,84 (Strong support, 61,80% Fib., potential reversal)

^CL M60

^CL Volume Profile/TPO (Daily)

• Verdict

- Will be waiting for the market to show it's direction and will then jump on board
- I'm expecting another slow range day --> Won't play continuation of momentum, rather trying to fade the lows/highs
- More comfortable in short trades, because they could develop more momentum if the weak buy side gets overwhelmed

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If you have any questions about my analysis, please feel free to ask!

​

Gl & Hf trading

Linusoverload

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Thanks for your analysis Linusoverload

Good example showing only 233K contracts traded yesterday. Trading range was slow in the morning (8am central time for me, USA). From the opening bell I noticed the decision making between buyers and sellers on rather CL was going higher or lower. The sellers eventually won the battle. But the buyers reacted showed some resilience by closing near the opening. Very interesting. That 67.00 is a tuff wall to break.

Will be waiting for the market to show it's direction and will then jump on board.

I certainly agree with you on this. This is normally what I do.

Question for you:

What time of day do you trade? I trade the USA session (8am to 1:30pm).

 

[linusoverload]

Hey SimpleMeLike,

Thank you for your feedback!
Since I'm from Germany I usually trade the EU session, take an extended break and come back to trade the US session. It really depends on the market condition on that particular day, how much time I spend in front of the screen.

Have you been able to capitalize on the move on Friday?

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Hey SimpleMeLike,

Thank you for your feedback!
Since I'm from Germany I usually trade the EU session, take an extended break and come back to trade the US session. It really depends on the market condition on that particular day, how much time I spend in front of the screen.

Have you been able to capitalize on the move on Friday?

linusoverload,

Hello , how it goes.

Yes, the move Friday was rare, but needed. I was able to make 35 ticks on friday on trade. After that I turned the chart off.
But i just got stop out from a fake break out this morning after the bell. Im waiting for 65.00 to breakdown for a short or or 65.34 for long.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

linusoverload,

Hello , how it goes.

Yes, the move Friday was rare, but needed. I was able to make 35 ticks on friday on trade. After that I turned the chart off.
But i just got stop out from a fake break out this morning after the bell. Im waiting for 65.00 to breakdown for a short or or 65.34 for long.

There goes my two losses for the day and I am done. With these low volume days as you pointed out using your relative volume indicator. It may best I stick with one trade per day so i don't get caught up in choppy chop