Daily Crude Chat

Well there was a TDSetUpSell $76.25 (Stop $76.58) @ 5:35am but ya gotta sleep sometimes. :)

Next TDSetUpSell dropped too much initially to have safe stop placement so passed on it.

Then TDSeqSell chopped me up. Stop wasn't hit but timed it out. Watching support getting blasted through currently (after taking screengrab). Shoulda, coulda, woulda. :D

! CL TDSetupSell.png
 
SunTrader said:
CFD's are not ... Futures - so S/R zones are another story.
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The price difference between oil CFDs and oil futures is typically tiny. The two instruments are very closely linked, and their prices tend to move in tandem.

For example, on October 4, 2023, Brent oil CFDs were $92.32 per barrel, while the Brent oil futures were $92.35 per barrel. The price difference between the two instruments was just $0.03 per barrel.

Of course, there will be times when the price difference between oil CFDs and oil futures is larger. For example, if there's a sudden news event that causes the price of oil to spike, then the price difference between oil CFDs and oil futures may widen temporarily. However, in general, the price difference between the two instruments is typically quite small.

I'm using AI to analyze correlation for 5+ years on high-resolution live market data. I'm happy to share the results if you desire more confirmation.
 
ElysianSignals said:
The price difference between oil CFDs and oil futures is typically tiny. The two instruments are very closely linked, and their prices tend to move in tandem.

For example, on October 4, 2023, Brent oil CFDs were $92.32 per barrel, while the Brent oil futures were $92.35 per barrel. The price difference between the two instruments was just $0.03 per barrel.

Of course, there will be times when the price difference between oil CFDs and oil futures is larger. For example, if there's a sudden news event that causes the price of oil to spike, then the price difference between oil CFDs and oil futures may widen temporarily. However, in general, the price difference between the two instruments is typically quite small.

I'm using AI to analyze correlation for 5+ years on high-resolution live market data. I'm happy to share the results if you desire more confirmation.
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Spot and forward rates for many tradeables are close but not the same. That is my point.

When I look to see what Elliott Wave might show for the S&P I look at $SPX cash because IMO it is much clearer than its Futs equivalent factoring in price at some future point and Globex session movements yada yada.

Same but different.

Someone (from Ukraine no less) has even posted charts of a Moscow CFD of SPX. o_O

At some point a derivative of a derivative of a ..... is too much - for me anyway.
 
SunTrader said:
Spot and forward rates for many tradeables are close but not the same. That is my point.

When I look to see what Elliott Wave might show for the S&P I look at $SPX cash because IMO it is much clearer than its Futs equivalent factoring in price at some future point and Globex session movements yada yada.

Same but different.

Someone (from Ukraine no less) has even posted charts of a Moscow CFD of SPX. o_O

At some point a derivative of a derivative of a ..... is too much - for me anyway.
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I accept your point, and I can even add as one practicing HFT, small price differences can indeed matter.

I humbly defended the analytics because, from a long-term analytical view, like the chart I shared, these differences don't have a meaning.

In the end, it comes down to your timeframe and strategy. In certain setups, these differences matter, in the one I shared, they don't.

But I love derivatives together with their differences. I can appreciate the derivatives of derivatives in strategies like arbitrage, forerunning, or HFT. There differences matter, yes.
 
On Thursday, I started posting my market forecasts for natural gas, and that went rather well. Now I'm thinking I'd like to do the same for crude oil, gold and silver. At present, I see this fuel as neutral, so for the time being at least, I'll be content to buy near the bottom of this zone and sell near the top.

USOUSDH1.png


It's going to have to break higher for me to label it bullish, or lower for me to consider it trending bearish.
 
expiated said:
It's going to have to break higher for me to label it bullish, or lower for me to consider it trending bearish.
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I anticipate suspending any additional contributions here for essentially the same reasons as those mentioned in the following entry I posted in a similar thread...

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