CV not even remotely close to being priced in

ballsofgold said:
really? this was so january

what is the market supposed to price in, fair value investing is dead......

throw all the fundamental value models out the window, that is why lots of investors are in MMs now

the market as a place for true price discovery is dead

why even debate about manipulated markets?
More...

Markets are purely for speculation and have zero real world meaning.

Beats working for a living though :)
 
Turveyd said:
I disagree, we won't know the true Death rate till it's all over, but currently NYC is doing badly @0.166%, but tests / deaths is irrelevant to me. It's also increasing very slowly at this point +21 deaths so that's +0.00002% so it's not going to increase much more, and I don't expect a 2nd wave, no sign of yet in NYC because got to be close to 100% have had it. NYC is 2nd worst death rate in the world, only NJ beating it.

UK is 0.07%, Sweden 0.05% no lockdowns, Italy had it first 0.06%, Spain 0.056%.
More...

Epidemiology never has such thing as death per test.
 
keesa said:
Epidemiology never has such thing as death per test.
More...

Until recently, its all being based on death per test, trying to make out its that bad, you'll need hospital care and you'll be tested, media fear machine trying hard and most falling for it :(

Sweden news they increased tested as deaths oer test where very high, so they where being told to lockdown, so they increased testing and all happy, there not stupid likely thought waste of time, but hey people.
 
WHO backing down admitting airborne or about to in confined spaces with aircon / heater as posted on here 3 or 4 months main thread go find, main place of transmission small shops ie tescos express, social distancing goes out the window inside pretty much so all a waste of space.

And as they kept letting you inside shops the spread continued the same, 4 months of BS for nothing :(

Good job not a real plague, WHO would of killed us all, just bankrupted us for nothing this time ffs!
 
KCalhoun said:
And gun sales surge.. civil unrest plus defunding police not a good combination
More...
%%
That;
and ammo sales/LOL/true[And op KMS, what makes you think it is not priced in; the average kill rate is only about 1% ?? Italy model of 11% kill rate is not so much in US.]
And sarcasm ,who would have thought a bunch of unmasked rioters/screaming would increase the kill rate for the young/ stupid??
 
kmiklas said:
As days turn into weeks... and into months... and soon into years... I believe that the market is not even remotely close to properly pricing in the CV fallout:

1. In the USA, wave I is still going on; wave II will hit in the fall and winter of this year.

II. Swine flu and others are being found. When cold weather hits, we're all going back to lockdown.

III. The trillions pumped into the economy will weaken the dollar, cause inflation, deflation, or stagnation (who knows).

IV. Retail real estate is changing; an exodus from the cities is occurring, and will continue. Who wants to be locked in a small apartment for the winter?

V. Corporate real estate landscape is dramatically changing, as companies save money with wfh policies.

VI. Businesses are closing, as new laws come into effect limiting their businesses.

VII. Education is changing. Many students will never see a classroom again. Universities will see dramatic revenue losses.

a. 1.5T in student loans will not be repaid.

VIII. Municipalities are threatened with bankruptcy, as the revenue losses hit tax revenue

IX. Taxes will rise; someone has to pay for all this.

X. The transportation industry is dramatically affected. Ridership on NJ Transit, Long Island RR, etc. is down 90%. Airlines are essentially grounded.

XI. ...this, in turn, affects oil consumption rates. Fuel industries are affected.

XII. Especially in this litiginous society, everything has to change. OSHA will get involved. What if I go to my office, and catch Corona? Can I sue my employer? What if I catch it riding on American Airlines? Are they liable? The Bus system? Anywhere that people come into contact.

XIII. Politicians and medical advisors will not assume any risk. They will choose the safest route: LOCKDOWN.

XIV. The government really put their heel down on the people here... and there is a fear of it happening again. What's next, iron grates on our front doors? We all have to wear ankle bracelets to monitor our movement?

We will not see a return to the old way of life until may 2030.. if ever... if we make it that far... if if if. We are in for years, perhaps a decade, of societal change. This is just the beginning.

I only hope that this does not lead to military conflict.
More...
As a trader, this is how I should view the market and the economy:

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/2020-mid-year-outlook-us-stocks-and-economy

Liz Ann always offered great insights.
 
The pandemic situation is sad, depressing, and scary, all around the world. There has to be an opportunity that often knocks the door in such conditions. Talking about the forex trading in the US it is no more the same anymore.

The only thing happening positively is the rise in the stock and other trading markets. Surprisingly, the stock index in the USA steadily gained yesterday. Dow Jones was considerably up by 350 points and S&P 500 rose to 1. 2%. Let's see what will happen next.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top