As days turn into weeks... and into months... and soon into years... I believe that the market is not even remotely close to properly pricing in the CV fallout:
1. In the USA, wave I is still going on; wave II will hit in the fall and winter of this year.
II. Swine flu and others are being found. When cold weather hits, we're all going back to lockdown.
III. The trillions pumped into the economy will weaken the dollar, cause inflation, deflation, or stagnation (who knows).
IV. Retail real estate is changing; an exodus from the cities is occurring, and will continue. Who wants to be locked in a small apartment for the winter?
V. Corporate real estate landscape is dramatically changing, as companies save money with wfh policies.
VI. Businesses are closing, as new laws come into effect limiting their businesses.
VII. Education is changing. Many students will never see a classroom again. Universities will see dramatic revenue losses.
a. 1.5T in student loans will not be repaid.
VIII. Municipalities are threatened with bankruptcy, as the revenue losses hit tax revenue
IX. Taxes will rise; someone has to pay for all this.
X. The transportation industry is dramatically affected. Ridership on NJ Transit, Long Island RR, etc. is down 90%. Airlines are essentially grounded.
XI. ...this, in turn, affects oil consumption rates. Fuel industries are affected.
XII. Especially in this litiginous society, everything has to change. OSHA will get involved. What if I go to my office, and catch Corona? Can I sue my employer? What if I catch it riding on American Airlines? Are they liable? The Bus system? Anywhere that people come into contact.
XIII. Politicians and medical advisors will not assume any risk. They will choose the safest route: LOCKDOWN.
XIV. The government really put their heel down on the people here... and there is a fear of it happening again. What's next, iron grates on our front doors? We all have to wear ankle bracelets to monitor our movement?
We will not see a return to the old way of life until may 2030.. if ever... if we make it that far... if if if. We are in for years, perhaps a decade, of societal change. This is just the beginning.
I only hope that this does not lead to military conflict.
1. In the USA, wave I is still going on; wave II will hit in the fall and winter of this year.
II. Swine flu and others are being found. When cold weather hits, we're all going back to lockdown.
III. The trillions pumped into the economy will weaken the dollar, cause inflation, deflation, or stagnation (who knows).
IV. Retail real estate is changing; an exodus from the cities is occurring, and will continue. Who wants to be locked in a small apartment for the winter?
V. Corporate real estate landscape is dramatically changing, as companies save money with wfh policies.
VI. Businesses are closing, as new laws come into effect limiting their businesses.
VII. Education is changing. Many students will never see a classroom again. Universities will see dramatic revenue losses.
a. 1.5T in student loans will not be repaid.
VIII. Municipalities are threatened with bankruptcy, as the revenue losses hit tax revenue
IX. Taxes will rise; someone has to pay for all this.
X. The transportation industry is dramatically affected. Ridership on NJ Transit, Long Island RR, etc. is down 90%. Airlines are essentially grounded.
XI. ...this, in turn, affects oil consumption rates. Fuel industries are affected.
XII. Especially in this litiginous society, everything has to change. OSHA will get involved. What if I go to my office, and catch Corona? Can I sue my employer? What if I catch it riding on American Airlines? Are they liable? The Bus system? Anywhere that people come into contact.
XIII. Politicians and medical advisors will not assume any risk. They will choose the safest route: LOCKDOWN.
XIV. The government really put their heel down on the people here... and there is a fear of it happening again. What's next, iron grates on our front doors? We all have to wear ankle bracelets to monitor our movement?
We will not see a return to the old way of life until may 2030.. if ever... if we make it that far... if if if. We are in for years, perhaps a decade, of societal change. This is just the beginning.
I only hope that this does not lead to military conflict.
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