Cutting through the hype

[Threei]

Quote from valleyvintner:

I don't see how it's possible to do both successfully at the same time.

It's certainly possible. I do it. My partners Chris, Bo and Allen do it.

You see, your reasoning that "if you have an emotional stake in a certain position it's difficult or impossible to offer objective analysis and/or advice concerning that security or market" is not necessary correct. I am not saying this factor has no place whatsoever, obviously having position impacts trader's thinking. But let me offer you somewhat different approach to this, one that governs my action. Any trade I take is based on certain setup. I do not get emotionally attached to a stock, I do not experience any of those feelings impacting trader's objectivity. It's simply "here is setup, it works or not. If it does I take my profis on exit signal. If it doesn't I take my stop at pre-determined level". With this attitude you have no problem reporting your trade as it occurs or commenting on trade develoment and your decisions. You do not feel the need to be right every time in front of your audience because the core of your teaching shows people that you play the probabilities and you can and do lose on this or that trade. When your stop hit you simply take it and move on. When your profit objective is reached you take a bow and move on. You are not trading to prove anything - you simply trade for a living day after day, just doing your job best you can.

Please, do not take my words as a claim that it's easy state to achieve, I am not trying to make it sound easy. But that's what I came to in a course of 7 years of trading, and trading gods know it was not easy road. I am sure plenty of successful traders will relate to the description above.

 

[valleyvintner]

Threei's post is a case, I think, of the exception proving the rule. In fact you seem to trade very much as I do inasmuch as you determine risk/reward before entry and exit on a stop, a profit objective or a predetermined signal.

Do you and your partners teach a trading methodology, or do you simply provide recommendations for other traders to emulate? Either would be a valuable service, but fee structures would necessarily be different.

The requirement of IDA (and other bodies too) that registered analysts not trade on their own account isn't my personal opinion. I merely pointed it out as a widely prevalent view. I'm glad to see that you are able to do both.

 

[kowboy]

Threei recently authored a book, "Techniques of Tape Reading"

I found the strategies in the book have been a great help to me in timing entries and exits, or whether or not to enter in the first place. Perhaps one of the most helpful books on trading that I have ever read.

 

[Threei]

Quote from valleyvintner:

Threei's post is a case, I think, of the exception proving the rule. In fact you seem to trade very much as I do inasmuch as you determine risk/reward before entry and exit on a stop, a profit objective or a predetermined signal.

Absolutely right. There is trigger, there is stop level, there is minimum profit objective and there is pre-defined event that signals exit. Beyond this simple sytructure certain discretions are being applied, as in: aggressive entry (before actual trigger), vs regular (at the trigger) vs conservative (letting trigger go, then entering on pullback); exit at once or partialling out etc. But this is the part that largely depends on trader's personality, risk tolerance, objectives etc, and our goal is to make sure our audience understands all the trade-offs of each approach in order to make relevant choice.

Do you and your partners teach a trading methodology, or do you simply provide recommendations for other traders to emulate? Either would be a valuable service, but fee structures would necessarily be different.

Most of all we are trying to teach approach, methodology, philosophy. Our "dream graduate" is the one that soaked our trading philosphy and found his own spin on our method in order to find HIS edge matching his temperament, his personality. Practice shows that this kind of students is the most successful. We do not set our goal to make everyone to emulate our trades - I believe that would be similar to chef trying to make all the patrons to eat his favorite dishes

The requirement of IDA (and other bodies too) that registered analysts not trade on their own account isn't my personal opinion. I merely pointed it out as a widely prevalent view. I'm glad to see that you are able to do both.

Yes, I understand what you mean. There is much more to it then just possibility of subjective view caused by advisor's personal involvement in a trade... there is a conflict of interests, possible hype, paid or otherwise rewarded stock promotions etc... I suspect this kind of conflicts is major reason for the limitations you refer to

 

[CalTrader]

Quote from Threei:

No need to generalize everything. Some do trade profitably and some probably do not. Not taking liberty to answer for entire industry I guess I can talk about myself. My trading account is up 88% in 2003 as of December 20th when I closed the year. MBTrading reviews my numbers curently so official confirmation is in order.

Great. On the other hand we dont have anything to sell. In our trading business all we do is trade the firms money: no book, no validated records, no training. Zip, Zero, Nada. Just a successful company making money for its employees and stockholders.

There are real trading firms that are busy enough making money and that dont comment on their methods or records: they dont need to. Like I said it only takes common sense to see through people that are posting details on public boards ...Of course marketing is fine as long as you acknowledge the purpose up front .....

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from CalTrader:

Great. On the other hand we dont have anything to sell. In our trading business all we do is trade the firms money: no book, no validated records, no training. Zip, Zero, Nada. Just a successful company making money for its employees and stockholders.

There are real trading firms that are busy enough making money and that dont comment on their methods or records: they dont need to. Like I said it only takes common sense to see through people that are posting details on public boards ...Of course marketing is fine as long as you acknowledge the purpose up front .....

Let me jump in here. I've read this now numerous times on this board and it always bugs me everytime I read it so let me just comment on it. This idea that someone has or knows a secret way to make money is bogus. OK? I'm tired of people saying if someone knew the secrets to making money they wouldn't come on a public board and say anything. Well, they wouldn't come on a public board and say anything because it doesn't exist.

There are no secret indicators or secret strategies and I don't give damn what quantum mechanic approach you are using it simply does not exist. Period. Guys that are selling something, are simply trying to sell a process, thats it. A process of how to go about trading. Nothing secret about that. And if they make an extra 100k, 500k or a million dollars a year doing that more power to them.

I hardly think anyone on this board would turn that money down if it was offered to them. Making money is all about personal discipline. For even if there were a secret recipe that yielded unlimited profits to all of its followers most people would still not even have the personal discipline to execute it.

 

[BlueHorseshoe]

I've recently discovered 'The Stock Trader's Almanac.'

http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/

Their backdated newsletters are available free on the internet.

I would never take a guru's trades at face value, but I'm big on seasonality and find the Almanac material of considerable value.

 

[SethArb]

around for yrs ...

it is worth looking at , even if some of it might be subject to interpretation

for example ... the 1st trading day of the new yr

one might expect to have an extreme probability of being up
end of day
the almanac claims that it is less than 50 % for the spoos , nas100 and only 55 % up chance in dow

friday 01/02/04 end of day all 3 futures were down after nice early gains

 

[CalTrader]

Quote from Maverick74:

Let me jump in here. I've read this now numerous times on this board and it always bugs me everytime I read it so let me just comment on it. This idea that someone has or knows a secret way to make money is bogus. OK? I'm tired of people saying if someone knew the secrets to making money they wouldn't come on a public board and say anything. Well, they wouldn't come on a public board and say anything because it doesn't exist.

There are no secret indicators or secret strategies and I don't give damn what quantum mechanic approach you are using it simply does not exist. Period. Guys that are selling something, are simply trying to sell a process, thats it. A process of how to go about trading. Nothing secret about that. And if they make an extra 100k, 500k or a million dollars a year doing that more power to them.

I hardly think anyone on this board would turn that money down if it was offered to them. Making money is all about personal discipline. For even if there were a secret recipe that yielded unlimited profits to all of its followers most people would still not even have the personal discipline to execute it.

Hmm ... I never said I had a secret method. I just said that there is no reason to comment on any method that anyone uses unless you are selling something. Period.

Bottom Line: either you make your money from trading or you tell everone about how great you are and make your money through promotion. Good performers dont need "extra" money from promotional selling activities since they are spending their time actually trading or running a trading desk. Why would you take time away from your primary money making activity to make less money ? .... Only unless you wern't making anything to speak of to begin with ..... Good traders should be making far more money than book writing or selling training courses can generate ....

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from CalTrader:

Hmm ... I never said I had a secret method. I just said that there is no reason to comment on any method that anyone uses unless you are selling something. Period.

Bottom Line: either you make your money from trading or you tell everyone about how great you are and make your money through promotion. Good performers don't need "extra" money from promotional selling activities since they are spending their time actually trading or running a trading desk. Why would you take time away from your primary money making activity to make less money ? .... Only unless you weren't making anything to speak of to begin with ..... Good traders should be making far more money than book writing or selling training courses can generate ....

Let me tell you how stupid that sounds. So I guess all the guys I know at the CBOE, the Merc and the CBOT that own bars and restaurants, and all sorts of other private businesses on the side, I guess those guys are bad traders huh? HARDLY! They probably make more in a week then you make in a year. I ask them from time to time why they do it and their answers vary. Some guys do it as a hobby. Some guys do it because they want to spread out their wealth into others areas, some guys do it for social reasons. None of them, I repeat, none of them, have any trouble making money in the market. And none of them are so busy that they can't put a few extra hours of work in to run a business on the side. Hell, some of these guys own 4 or 5 businesses.

Ever heard of Tony Saliba? Yeah I guess he is a failed trader. He made about 6 million by the age of 25 and many more millions before the age of 30. Now he has his own brokerage that he owns, he has his own school where he educates people from all over the world on how to trade options, he has written a book, sells seminars and tapes, owns several restaurants and countless other businesses. But I guess he is a failure too right. Yeah I bet you make a lot more then he does. Hey why would he do all of this if he was doing so well in the market?

You need to understand that there are a million reasons why people do the things that they do. Sure there are a lot of guys out there that can't make a dime trading so they sell some magic snake oil formula bullshit. But there are so many good quality traders that seek to get more out of their life then just buying and selling ticks all day. Yeah, kind of hard to believe that these intelligent men might actually want to leave their mark on this world. Imagine that.

And I'll say this again because I think its worth repeating, there are no secrets to sell, they are selling processes. If they could sell discipline, then they would, because that is the magic formula, unfortunately, just like the sales guy at bally's health and fitness, discipline has to come from you, not the salesman. There are no secrets to health, happiness, or wealth, just a lot of hard work and discipline. Now if only you could package those two things together and you would have yourself one hot selling product.