Cutting Russia off SWIFT - Germany and Italy now on board

[Aisone]

You posted this last Monday :



This was never true a bad assumption on your part. The futures moves were ALL Ukraine related. Which helps to understand the action the rest of the week.

I love it when people try to explain what the market did based on the the latest popular headlines and narratives. Yes it's a volatile (and very disturbing) situation in Ukraine, but yes, new lows were going to be reached regardless (and lower lows were even reached after that), but it goes deeper into market dynamics and movement over time, and I can pretty confidently say it had nothing to do with overnight headlines, just something that had been in process for a while. Just because a certain volatility coincides with national or international events, I wouldn't assume headlines are the cause of volatility.

Case and point, this volatility is very connected to the volatility that bottomed out on 1/24, and that had nothing to do with Ukraine. But that's another story.

I also said I'm bearish long term but 'crave' the buy opportunities this environment creates, and I was spot on there as well.

As far as headline-demystifiers are concerned, if anyone wants to EXPLAIN what happened based on headlines, I would just say, since one believes their understanding is so keen, stop explaining and start predicting, beginning with the short term and with specifics. Otherwise its just useless posturing for one to feel smart and relevant. (and respect to anyone who is spot on in their concrete predictions.)

 

[terr]

Polish PM says Orban told him Hungary now supports disconnecting Russia from SWIFT. They were one of the main holdouts in the EU.

I saw that Cyprus is on board. Germany has dropped its opposition.

Seems like the only one left is Biden.

 

[d08]

The thread topic 'Germany / Italy now onboard', is, sorry, for now bs.

No one will cut russia off swift.

Why?
Because of the oil and gas, that almost all european countries get from russia.

The gas silos are completely finished, there is nothing left now.
But the economy needs energy, private households too.

Once, the silos are filled again, they may cut russia off swift.

That will take MONTHS.

However, russia could survive even without the gas/oil sellings:
They got $600 billion in reserves.

I heard exactly the opposite, there's supplies to last the whole year.

 

[d08]

It is an absolute disgrace to see some fearful of forcing Russia out of Swift. You simply cannot negotiate with a country that invades another country. I'm reading how countries like India and several others will not support this move. You've also got Germany too scared to pull the trigger for fearing of losing Russian natural gas.

I think this is the line in the sand. You either support Russia or you don't. You can't want to do business with them while at the same time pretending to be on the side of peace. If some countries go hungry or some go cold, so be it, but its better than sleeping with the enemy.

The sad thing that I'm seeing now is that this isn't so much of a fight between Russia and the west, but more along the lines of a fight between those who support peace and those who twiddle their thumbs, too scared to pick a side, and hope that when this is all done, they won't have to face any consequences.

I personally do not want to be "fake" friends with a bully, even if it means I have to freeze or starve to death. Now is the time to cripple Putin and his inner circle. If you starve all those rich people of their funds, they will take care of Putin themselves. But without a coordinated effort, this will all have been for nothing.

Exactly.

Seeing how some here talk about "premium" for gas transportation, that's a minor issue consider what is actually happening at this very moment. But it's easy to theorise sitting somewhere in US or Canada in a quiet location. When just some hours drive away people are being blown to pieces at regular intervals, it's a different story.

There's no reason to overreact and make bad decisions but the goal is clear and getting hung up on minuscule issues, there's just no time for that.

If Russia controls Ukraine then things are even worse as then many commodities prices can be dictated by Kremlin. I'm not sure many here realise what's at stake.

 

[terzioglu]

Russia will be cut from SWIFT. That was on the cards. The countries that are reluctant to support this measure are faking opposition because of their own citizens. This measure will hurt mostly EU, much less Russia and would greatly benefit USA.

 

[smallfil]

Russia will be cut from SWIFT. That was on the cards. The countries that are reluctant to support this measure are faking opposition because of their own citizens. This measure will hurt mostly EU, much less Russia and would greatly benefit USA.

It is the spike in oil prices they are trying to avoid as well as being cut from their natural gas supplies coming from Russia.

 

[virtusa]

I heard exactly the opposite, there's supplies to last the whole year.

The real numbers are not communicated for strategic reasons. At the actual prices several producers are standing in line to sell gas. The fact that Germany joins the rest in the SWIFT ban, indicates that they have found a solution. Putin can sell the gas to China. What he never tells is that the price the get from the chinese is so low that he hardly makes any money. So Putin is losing billions. And some of his oligarch friends lose a lot too.

 

[d08]

The real numbers are not communicated for strategic reasons. At the actual prices several producers are standing in line to sell gas. The fact that Germany joins the rest in the SWIFT ban, indicates that they have found a solution. Putin can sell the gas to China. What he never tells is that the price the get from the chinese is so low that he hardly makes any money. So Putin is losing billions. And some of his oligarch friends lose a lot too.

Chinese are just playing Russians for maximum benefit. All their dealings are very poor for Russia. There's no-one to buy Russian gas at the delivery points. They can of course ship it across the world to Iran and India but that's financially stupid.

 

[virtusa]

Russians refuse to go to war against Ukraine.

https://www.smobserved.com/story/20...ight-in-ukraine-reports-obozrevatel/6500.html

 

[formikatrading]

There is quite a bit of wisdom in your post. The geopolitical stuff can sometimes just "accelerate the cycles" but otherwise they don't change the bigger picture, as you have indicated.

I love it when people try to explain what the market did based on the the latest popular headlines and narratives. Yes it's a volatile (and very disturbing) situation in Ukraine, but yes, new lows were going to be reached regardless (and lower lows were even reached after that), but it goes deeper into market dynamics and movement over time, and I can pretty confidently say it had nothing to do with overnight headlines, just something that had been in process for a while. Just because a certain volatility coincides with national or international events, I wouldn't assume headlines are the cause of volatility.

Case and point, this volatility is very connected to the volatility that bottomed out on 1/24, and that had nothing to do with Ukraine. But that's another story.

I also said I'm bearish long term but 'crave' the buy opportunities this environment creates, and I was spot on there as well.

As far as headline-demystifiers are concerned, if anyone wants to EXPLAIN what happened based on headlines, I would just say, since one believes their understanding is so keen, stop explaining and start predicting, beginning with the short term and with specifics. Otherwise its just useless posturing for one to feel smart and relevant. (and respect to anyone who is spot on in their concrete predictions.)