Because we'll know Monday what the major trend is going to be?
No. It will tell us if there will be an oil and natural gas spike once, Russia is removed from Swift? Oil has already been going up for a while, now. The strongest sector is Energy.
Cutting Russia off SWIFT - Germany and Italy now on board
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No. It will tell us if there will be an oil and natural gas spike once, Russia is removed from Swift? Oil has already been going up for a while, now. The strongest sector is Energy.
It is an absolute disgrace to see some fearful of forcing Russia out of Swift. You simply cannot negotiate with a country that invades another country. I'm reading how countries like India and several others will not support this move. You've also got Germany too scared to pull the trigger for fearing of losing Russian natural gas.
I think this is the line in the sand. You either support Russia or you don't. You can't want to do business with them while at the same time pretending to be on the side of peace. If some countries go hungry or some go cold, so be it, but its better than sleeping with the enemy.
The sad thing that I'm seeing now is that this isn't so much of a fight between Russia and the west, but more along the lines of a fight between those who support peace and those who twiddle their thumbs, too scared to pick a side, and hope that when this is all done, they won't have to face any consequences.
I personally do not want to be "fake" friends with a bully, even if it means I have to freeze or starve to death. Now is the time to cripple Putin and his inner circle. If you starve all those rich people of their funds, they will take care of Putin themselves. But without a coordinated effort, this will all have been for nothing.
I think this is the line in the sand. You either support Russia or you don't. You can't want to do business with them while at the same time pretending to be on the side of peace. If some countries go hungry or some go cold, so be it, but its better than sleeping with the enemy.
The sad thing that I'm seeing now is that this isn't so much of a fight between Russia and the west, but more along the lines of a fight between those who support peace and those who twiddle their thumbs, too scared to pick a side, and hope that when this is all done, they won't have to face any consequences.
I personally do not want to be "fake" friends with a bully, even if it means I have to freeze or starve to death. Now is the time to cripple Putin and his inner circle. If you starve all those rich people of their funds, they will take care of Putin themselves. But without a coordinated effort, this will all have been for nothing.
Your comment is such a joke, it is almost surreal.
So you're telling me that if you encounter someone who is out to kill you, your first instinct is to sit them down and try to negotiate with them? Maybe you will offer them just one kidney and hope they leave you with the other one? Perhaps beg them to only take out one eye? Offer the left hand because you're right handed and need that one more?
1/4 of my portfolio is exposed - Gazprom, Evraz, Polymetal, Mechel. I thought I am well hedged as the rest is Petrobras, XOM, verious US natgas producers and midstream, coal, NEM and some gold juniors. However, Thursday was absolute shitshow regarding PA.
Not a Taleb fanboy but there was this part in "Antifragile" i think, that explained how crowded the energy play was as everyone was expecting the war in Iraq. As a result, he made a fortune shorting the oil.
And another dumb idea... Russia has her coffer full and a lot of gold. US would try to prevent any meaningful spike in precious metals as it would greatly benefit Russia and CHina. I really wonder whether such large scale manipulation of the price of gold could be successful mid to long term.
The short term bullish reaction of the Stockmarket is due to their expectation that the worst of the oil spike is over. It is not. I expect that if they kick Russia out of Swift, oil and natural gas prices to spike up. Russia supplies 35% of Europe's natural gas needs. Commodities not too far off. Ukraine supplies a lot of raw materials to the US and Europe. The longer the war drags, supplies of commodities cut due to the disruption, it will likewise spike prices to the roof. Putin if he takes Ukraine might bar exports of commodities to US and Europe to hit back on sanctions.
I am with you on this one. Almost fully invested in energy, commodities, precious metals and shipping. I am somewhat connected to the shipping business and even with Russia exporting there is just not enough oil. Without Russia it would be nightmare... unless the demand is utterly destroyed.
Still, I am quite a bit worried as last Thursday proved my hedges were far from perfect. Got some tail risk etf as well but that wont help me as it is mostly based on spy/qqq options.
Because we'll know Monday what the major trend is going to be?
You posted this last Monday :
This was never true a bad assumption on your part. The futures moves were ALL Ukraine related. Which helps to understand the action the rest of the week.
The way I hedge is based on the direction of the major trend. So, I would have short positions on weak companies strongly trending down and long positions on companies with strong uptrends. That way, all my trades are aligned with the major trends. Short term, there will be rallies and pullbacks. Overall, the major trends should persist and resume its direction.
This is from Germans. GERMANS - the most pro-Russia EU leader.
Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz:
The Russian invasion marks a turning point. It is our duty to support Ukraine to the best of our ability in defending against Putin's invading army. That is why we are delivering 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 #Stinger missiles to our friends in #Ukraine.
Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz:
The Russian invasion marks a turning point. It is our duty to support Ukraine to the best of our ability in defending against Putin's invading army. That is why we are delivering 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 #Stinger missiles to our friends in #Ukraine.