Cutting losses - not the best idea

Romeo · Nov 4, 2003

You were caught lying over and over. Thus, you have no credibility. Weren't you taught that when you lie, you lose credibility? Oh yeah, you went to Wharton.

"I have 53 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or more"

"I have 53 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or more"

"I have 53 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or more"

See, I only went to city college, but I took statistics, and I know that you have a better chance of winning a $100,000,000 lottery, then accomplishing what you fib about (53 consecutive...).

Quote from mrmarket:

Please look at all of my trades and show me how it adds up to 3%....this must be the new math:

closed trades

STOCK DATE IN DATE OUT PAID SOLD GAIN ANN GAIN
DHOM 1/8/2002 1/30/2002 15.30 17.75 16% 266%
GNWR 1/3/2002 4/9/2002 21.38 24.80 16% 61%
SAH 1/31/2002 4/9/2002 28.05 32.49 16% 85%
ANH 1/10/2002 4/22/2002 9.73 11.30 16% 58%
GAN 4/9/2002 5/1/2002 56.20 65.09 16% 262%
RYL 4/10/2002 5/3/2002 100.35 116.17 16% 250%
JOSB 5/8/2002 5/17/2002 20.58 24.11 17% 696%
MHK 2/20/2002 5/20/2002 60.00 69.66 16% 66%
TENT 5/14/2002 5/21/2002 13.67 15.88 16% 843%
HAMP 6/18/2002 7/9/2002 21.89 25.35 16% 275%
RATE 1/9/2003 1/13/2003 4.30 5.14 20% 1783%
LCI 1/24/2003 2/6/2003 20.00 23.40 17% 477%
ODFL 1/3/2003 4/3/2003 29.05 33.77 16% 66%
AVD 8/19/2002 4/14/2003 15.07 17.58 17% 26%
QSII 2/25/2003 5/6/2003 26.14 32.10 23% 119%
JFBC 1/2/2003 5/21/2003 50.90 59.46 17% 44%
LEND 5/19/2003 5/27/2003 13.75 16.47 20% 903%
PORT 2/7/2003 6/2/2003 46.85 53.67 15% 46%
NFI 5/27/2003 6/5/2003 51.45 59.45 16% 631%
DRL 4/7/2003 6/6/2003 37.70 44.02 17% 102%
HITK 5/7/2003 6/16/2003 37.16 45.60 23% 207%
OHB 5/21/2002 6/17/2003 9.92 12.01 21% 20%
FBC 6/6/2003 6/26/2003 20.85 24.24 16% 297%
MBT 5/2/2003 6/26/2003 48.50 57.04 18% 117%
VNBC 4/12/2003 6/30/2003 18.89 21.96 16% 75%
SSYS 6/19/2003 7/7/2003 33.35 38.90 17% 337%
ACMR 4/22/2002 7/14/2003 22.01 25.46 16% 13%
UTSI 7/3/2003 7/16/2003 36.28 41.95 16% 439%
FCFS 7/8/2003 7/21/2003 16.30 18.84 16% 438%
FRED 5/2/2002 8/1/2003 26.23 30.29 15% 12%
SFCC 7/30/2003 9/2/2003 26.01 31.00 19% 206%
ESI 8/7/2003 9/12/2003 39.59 46.38 17% 174%
MDC 7/10/2002 10/1/2003 46.59 54.25 16% 13%
COH 6/9/2003 10/14/2003 25.75 30.21 17% 50%
ARO 10/3/2003 10/14/2003 28.90 33.62 16% 542%
NARA 7/25/2003 10/16/2003 18.91 21.94 16% 70%
DKS 7/29/2003 10/29/2003 39.99 47.21 18% 72%
WRLD 6/3/2003 10/29/2003 14.43 18.63 29% 72%
WLS 10/16/2003 10/29/2003 54.10 62.76 16% 449%
GRMN 5/23/2003 10/29/2003 45.91 53.00 15% 35%
JBSS 10/24/2003 10/30/2003 28.37 34.13 20% 1235%
FINL 9/29/2003 11/3/2003 27.13 31.39 16% 164%

open trades

STOCK DATE IN PAID NOW GAIN TARGET
PTSI 4/15/2002 24.84 19.00 -23.5% 28.9
AXL 5/20/2002 34.73 35.16 1.2% 40.2
CHKE 5/22/2002 21.50 20.91 -2.7% 24.9
WSB 6/30/2003 10.67 11.09 3.9% 12.4
AMHC 7/14/2003 41.00 41.38 0.9% 47.6
HELE 9/2/2003 24.13 22.29 -7.6% 27.9
PRX 9/18/2003 72.40 72.15 -0.3% 83.7
CBK 10/20/2003 29.38 29.91 1.8% 33.9
CLSR 10/31/2003 30.47 31.95 4.9% 35.1

mrmarket · Nov 4, 2003

Quote from dbphoenix:

Mecro, you've made your point. If it drives you so crazy, don't read it.

what is his point? is he calling me a liar? does he admit my track record is stellar? or does he think this adds up to 3%???

Romeo · Nov 4, 2003

Quote from mrmarket:

what is his point? is he calling me a liar? does he admit my track record is stellar? or does he think this adds up to 3%???

I don't know if he is, but I am. You are a liar!

mrmarket · Nov 4, 2003

Quote from Romeo:

You were caught lying over and over. Thus, you have no credibility. Weren't you taught that when you lie, you lose credibility? Oh yeah, you went to Wharton.

"I have 53 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or more"

"I have 53 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or more"

"I have 53 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or more"

See, I only went to city college, but I took statistics, and I know that you have a better chance of winning a $100,000,000 lottery, then accomplishing what you fib about (53 consecutive...).

This may be a good time for you to talk about biceps, or even your website.

why don't you ask the 352 people who avidly follow me on my website about credibility. There are 352 people who follow me very closely and there's one of you.

Give it a rest.

inandlong · Nov 4, 2003

Quote from Mecro:

I cant believe you actually support that joker. As a moderator you should know about this characters previous threads.

I know about every one of them Mecro. And those old ones ended up in Chit Chat. But mrmarket has returned and wishes to participate in discussions on Elite trader. No he doesn't trade moment-to-moment like you do. In fact, because he demonstrates no real use for TA I consider his methods investing v trading, just like you. But he has a documented record, and although his stoploss criteria is much different than most of ours, his stock selection method is worthwhile.

It's not necessary for all of us to adhere to the same strategies to participate here. Interestingly, scalping threads tend to attract a lot of naysayers too. LOL, what thread about anything doesn't?

Life is beautiful.

dbphoenix · Nov 4, 2003

Quote from inandlong:

I know about every one of them Mecro. And those old ones ended up in Chit Chat. But mrmarket has returned and wishes to participate in discussions on Elite trader. No he doesn't trade moment-to-moment like you do. In fact, because he demonstrates no real use for TA I consider his methods investing v trading, just like you. But he has a documented record, and although his stoploss criteria is much different than most of ours, his stock selection method is worthwhile.

It's not necessary for all of us to adhere to the same strategies to participate here. Interestingly, scalping threads tend to attract a lot of naysayers too. LOL, what thread about anything doesn't?

Life is beautiful.

This go-round, MrMarket has been a model of restraint. I suspect that at least one reason why some people are so antagonistic is that they are adhering to the stoploss catechism and losing money left and right, whereas MM is violating the most precious tenet and coming out ahead.

Methinks I detect the unmistakeable odor of sour grapes.

mrmarket · Nov 4, 2003

Quote from dbphoenix:

This go-round, MrMarket has been a model of restraint. I suspect that at least one reason why some people are so antagonistic is that they are adhering to the stoploss catechism and losing money left and right, whereas MM is violating the most precious tenet and coming out ahead.

Methinks I detect the unmistakeable odor of sour grapes.

Db...excellent point. Allow me to weigh in and address stop losses maybe in support of the TA guys.

Suppose you are a trader and you really don't understand fundamentals, nor care to understand them, then you might as well have a blind stop loss because you have no idea why a stock moved against you and you want to preserve your capital.

Where $$$MR. MARKET$$$ comes in is that I, with my Wharton MBA, understand financial statements, business models, strategic management, macroeconomic theory and application, marketing, quantitative price momentum, etc. As a result I know when the market may be moving against me but I also know when the market is being inefficient and I can be patient and wait until the market corrects itself. The proof is in my track record of stocks that were losers that came back extremely strong to be winners.

The price of a stock has supply and demand baked in, but the derivative of this supply and demand pricing pressure is the fundamental components of the company itself. Hope this helps.

saxon · Nov 4, 2003

The simplest way to look and the "when to take a loss question" is to simply forget about the entry price as soon as the position is opened. It's history at that point, and the only thing that matters is the NEXT order you place.

For existing positions as well as new positions, the only relevant questions are: "Is it a good buy?" or "Is it a good sell?"

Unless you are leveraged to the hilt and risk financial ruin if your position moves against you, these are the only important trading considerations at any given time.

sax

mrmarket · Nov 4, 2003

Quote from saxon:

The simplest way to look and the "when to take a loss question" is to simply forget about the entry price as soon as the position is opened. It's history at that point, and the only thing that matters is the NEXT order you place.

For existing positions as well as new positions, the only relevant questions are: "Is it a good buy?" or "Is it a good sell?"

Unless you are leveraged to the hilt and risk financial ruin if your position moves against you, these are the only important trading considerations at any given time.

sax

Excellent Saxon....a stock doesn't know you own it..and it certainly doesn't know what you paid for it...so why should you care what you paid for it??

OxonianTrader · Nov 5, 2003

Quote from mrmarket:

...but the derivative of this supply and demand pricing pressure is the fundamental components of the company itself...

Which according to Soros, is affected by the supply and demand. I think it is more complex than you make it out to be! You seem to have a lot of faith in the equilibrium theory of markets......but don't you know equilibrium theory says that successful traders (i.e. those that beat the major indices) can not exist? Isn't that why LTCM failed because they thought that spreads would narrow as a result of equilibrium theory?