Cutting losses - not the best idea

Quote from Cutten:

In a bull market, staying long during corrections will clearly make more money than selling out.

The obvious question is how to do that whilst avoiding getting screwed when a bear market comes along.

That's where you get into trend, trend direction, trend change, and trend reversal. Sperandeo is one way to go. Or you can look at Wilder/LeBeau and the ADX/DMI.
 
Quote from Kicking:

There is some truth to what Mr Market says and that can be said regardless of your style. In the early part of a trade, you have to know when to wait for an adverse move to turn around and when to get out. I would say that most of my losses since I started trading were whipsaws. I noticed that if the market moves immediately against me it's better to wait for it to come back (unless I am playing a reversal, which I shy away from usually especially on the short side) however if it moves quickly in my favor then comes back then I must get out because it's probably reversing. Also in Forex cutting losses too quickly (ex. less than 50bps in EUR/USD) is just going to cause losses after losses.

As for the 8% stop loss that Oneill recommends, I think a lot of break out stall and come back before really moving up again so you must get whipsawed a lot with his method unless you are in a raging bull like now. Keep in mind that he has a lot of followers buying at the same time too.

I would submit that someone who holds a position for up to five months without a "stopless" strategy, as does Mr. Market, is more an INVESTOR than a trader. I would also bring to your attention that Oneill's IBD stands for INVESTOR'S Business Daily.

A swing system that holds for weeks/months requires a very large amount of capital if one is to hope to generate a trading income to cover a decent level of living expenses. I also swing trade, and IMO, you would be hard pressed to CONSISTENTLY generate 100K with a "stopless" system like this with less than a 400K account, unless you were willing to take on considerable margin. And in that case, when the market reverses you would be in a very ugly position.

Finally, I would simply point out that it is sooooo easy to confuse brains with a bull market. On average, the market impacts individual stock movement roughly 75%, so a sharply rising market will always cover a multitude of trading errors. (Like trading without stops.)
 
I'm not going to sell my losers anymore. I don't care how much they drop. I mean I wish I was still holding EBAY long from 1999, because one day its going higher.

If I looked back at all my trades, at one point or another they were down by at least 8%., they probably appreciated by 100% since I sold them for a loss.

Now the only problem I face is how to I prevent the bd from selling me out after Ive run out of money to meet the margin calls.


You're brilliant Mr. Market, maybe you can give me that answer. BY the way how did your strategy of buy and hold work from March 30, 2000 until the market started uptrending again?
 
Let me get this straight now..... Timing is of no importance, and Cutting losses is not a good rule.

Humm, i can say sometimes you can be chased out of a stock, only to find it go higher. However, cutting losses is the Key to the current market.

LOL...MRMARKET, you must be a broker....you sound like one...LOL
 
Quote from SlickRick:

I'm not going to sell my losers anymore. I don't care how much they drop. I mean I wish I was still holding EBAY long from 1999, because one day its going higher.


This is essentially the Gardners' attitude at The Motley Fool, i.e., that as long as you choose wisely (shades of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade), it won't matter if your losers go to zero; the gains on the winners will more than compensate for those few losses.
 
Quote from lindq:


Finally, I would simply point out that it is sooooo easy to confuse brains with a bull market. On average, the market impacts individual stock movement roughly 75%, so a sharply rising market will always cover a multitude of trading errors. (Like trading without stops.)

What if the investor/trader has a Wharton MBA, would you still be confused about brains and a bull market?
 
Quote from SlickRick:

I'm not going to sell my losers anymore. I don't care how much they drop. I mean I wish I was still holding EBAY long from 1999, because one day its going higher.

If I looked back at all my trades, at one point or another they were down by at least 8%., they probably appreciated by 100% since I sold them for a loss.

Now the only problem I face is how to I prevent the bd from selling me out after Ive run out of money to meet the margin calls.


You're brilliant Mr. Market, maybe you can give me that answer. BY the way how did your strategy of buy and hold work from March 30, 2000 until the market started uptrending again?

I never invest on margin, that's why I don't get margin calls. My model did very well in year 2000.
 
Not cutting losers?

What if Japan circa 1980's was upon us or Dow 1920's (meaning this up year is just an illusion to a malaise we're about to go through), do we cut losers or wait it out for the long term an be eventually right?

Better yet, stocks have gone up over time as nations have evolved from an agrarian society to an industrial one...what's the next stage, technological society or is this as good as it gets ?
 
Quote from mrmarket:



I never invest on margin, that's why I don't get margin calls. My model did very well in year 2000.

Based on your theory and performance, you should use margin because you never would get a call. Without running a complex model, I'm willing to bet that you'll blow away Buffet in less than a year.

Should I take a mortgage out on the house?
 
Back
Top