Cushing predicting another crash in oil prices?

Overnight said:
ECF, you seem to be confusing what bone mentioned previously...



You come back with...
​

The EIA and the IEA are two separate bodies.

Do not link what the EIA "said" with a link from the IEA. Just hope that clears up some confusion?
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Yes, that was the IEA.

The EIA said this as the 2014 collapse had already begun almost a month before:

Despite recent disruptions to OPEC supply and tighter world oil balances, EIA expects continued strong growth in non-OPEC supply to place downward pressure on Brent crude oil prices, causing them to gradually decrease through 2015, according to EIA's August 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook. EIA forecasts that total world petroleum and other liquids supply will grow by 1.5 million bbl/d and 1.3 million bbl/d in 2014 and 2015, respectively, while Brent crude oil prices are forecasted to fall from an average of $108/bbl in 2014 to an average of $105/bbl in 2015.​

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=17651

Quite the understatement.

It should be obvious that last week's price rise and current fall in oil prices is mostly due to Syria, next door to where they put all the dead dinosaurs.

We'll see how long businesses bringing future demand forward because of expected tariffs will last.
 
Error Correction Funder said:
Yes, that was the IEA.

The EIA said this as the 2014 collapse had already begun almost a month before:

Despite recent disruptions to OPEC supply and tighter world oil balances, EIA expects continued strong growth in non-OPEC supply to place downward pressure on Brent crude oil prices, causing them to gradually decrease through 2015, according to EIA's August 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook. EIA forecasts that total world petroleum and other liquids supply will grow by 1.5 million bbl/d and 1.3 million bbl/d in 2014 and 2015, respectively, while Brent crude oil prices are forecasted to fall from an average of $108/bbl in 2014 to an average of $105/bbl in 2015.​

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=17651

Quite the understatement.

It should be obvious that last week's price rise and current fall in oil prices is mostly due to Syria, next door to where they put all the dead dinosaurs.

We'll see how long businesses bringing future demand forward because of expected tariffs will last.
More...


Hindsight is brilliant. Where you going from here? Up 3 bux from the current price of 67, or down 3 bux from current price of 67? Supply and demand concerns? Summer waves? Winter disruptions? Hell, the hurricane season starts in 7 months. In terms of futures, that's equivalent to next quarter.
 
Overnight said:
Hindsight is brilliant. Where you going from here? Up 3 bux from the current price of 67, or down 3 bux from current price of 67? Supply and demand concerns? Summer waves? Winter disruptions? Hell, the hurricane season starts in 7 months. In terms of futures, that's equivalent to next quarter.
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I'm not in. Explanation above.

Explanation also above as to the price action, essentially a larger version of 2011.
 
Oh the sins of omission... LOL :D Larger font and bold type won't mask them !

Last statement in the article: "For now oil is up only 22 cents, meaning those who hurry can make a quick buck as Gartman is stopped out in the next day or two." Tyler Durden the author said this of course because Gartman was risking $1.20 to target $5-$7 - hardly the hyperbolic rabid "crash" (your words) you proselytize. It's a position trade. If it was a crash he would be targeting $35 to $45...

Also of note are Gartman's other past calls: "We won't see crude above $44 in my lifetime", and "should stabilize around $37".

Finally for your own humility please take care to note the article's pointed reference to the backwardation term structure (props to Mav) but there is absolutely NO mention of Cushing stocks - which was the original premise of you starting this thread and your first three or four pages of musings until quite possibly facts got in your way on Cushing as the magical unicorn.
 
bone said:
Oh the sins of omission... LOL :D Larger font and bold type won't mask them !

Last statement in the article: "For now oil is up only 22 cents, meaning those who hurry can make a quick buck as Gartman is stopped out in the next day or two." Tyler Durden the author said this of course because Gartman was risking $1.20 to target $5-$7 - hardly the hyperbolic rabid "crash" (your words) you proselytize. It's a position trade. If it was a crash he would be targeting $35 to $45...

Also of note are Gartman's other past calls: "We won't see crude above $44 in my lifetime", and "should stabilize around $37".

Finally for your own humility please take care to note the article's pointed reference to the backwardation term structure (props to Mav) but there is absolutely NO mention of Cushing stocks - which was the original premise of you starting this thread and your first three or four pages of musings until quite possibly facts got in your way on Cushing as the magical unicorn.
More...

The post about Gartman was a joke. Like your analysis.
 
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