Cushing predicting another crash in oil prices?

[bone]

He sees EVERYTHING crashing. He has started 50 threads in the last week calling for a crash in just about everything. Don't worry Bone, guys like him move on pretty quickly when they run out of coins.

I admit to having a sentimental favoritism for a Member hailing from my own hometown - and he's certainly entitled to an opinion but his persistent misstatement of market fundamentals irritates. It might sit easier if he even bothered to read a freaking EIA report and cite data from it in lieu of doing the easy millennial thing and cherry pick a YouTube clip. This "risk off" concept he likes to use just illustrates my point. Oh well. I tried.

A real oil trader will of course pay very very close attention to an EIA report. And what Platt's and half a dozen other expert private resources have to say about things. And why a market in pronounced backwardation is screaming a bold truth at you.

 

[Error Correction Funder]

And why a market in pronounced backwardation is screaming a bold truth at you.

You keep arguing my case.

You don't know what "risk off" is either?

 

[Maverick74]

If it were my only risk off choice, I'd buy bearish positions on it, but the OVX is almost 30. That is not a bargain relative to the other risk off choices.

The drop should be 20% or more from the recent top.

Late cycle trades show commodities dislocating from risk assets...i.e. they move inversely to them. This is mainly because it's the "higher" commodity prices that usually end the current credit cycle. Put more simply, higher oil prices will push risk assets lower, not the other way around.

Second, please share what these "bargain" risk off choices are.

 

[Maverick74]

You keep arguing my case.

You don't know what "risk off" is either?

Bro, do you even watch the ZZ strips? They are trading at 5 year highs at the current moment. They are breaking out! ZZ1819 is pushing $6. That's called steep backwardation for you home gamers.

 

[Error Correction Funder]

Late cycle trades show commodities dislocating from risk assets...i.e. they move inversely to them. This is mainly because it's the "higher" commodity prices that usually end the current credit cycle. Put more simply, higher oil prices will push risk assets lower, not the other way around.

Second, please share what these "bargain" risk off choices are.

That assumes this is a late cycle crash. 2010, 2011, and 2015 & 2016 weren't either.

They're in my post history.

 

[Error Correction Funder]

Bro, do you even watch the ZZ strips? They are trading at 5 year highs at the current moment. They are breaking out! ZZ1819 is pushing $6. That's called steep backwardation for you home gamers.

Do you really not see it?

This is another one of those clear ones.

 

[Maverick74]

Do you really not see it?

This is another one of those clear ones.

Dude, this is a weekly chart going back 3 years for the current 12 month strip (ZZ1819). This thing is rocketing hard to the upside. THIS is what steep contango is. Notice how we were in contango until Oct of last year. Once this baby went into backwardation it was Goodnight Irene.

 

[Error Correction Funder]

Dude, this is a weekly chart going back 3 years for the current 12 month strip (ZZ1819). This thing is rocketing hard to the upside. THIS is what steep contango is. Notice how we were in contango until Oct of last year. Once this baby went into backwardation it was Goodnight Irene.

Show us the one that goes back to 2007.

Can you really not see? Look again at how clear it is:

 

[Maverick74]

Show us the one that goes back to 2007.

Can you really not see? Look again at how clear it is:

Oh dear God, that chart is a year old! It stops in Jan 2017! We have been exploding to the upside right "after" your chart stops. LOL.

 

[Overnight]

ECF, you seem to be confusing what bone mentioned previously...

...Again, I'm going to go back to EIA data. You seem to be stuck on a very superficial and limited viewpoint of the hydrocarbons market. Judging by your original post and follow up posts everything for you appeared to revolve around Cushing storage in fact.

EIA data tells us that domestic US liquids consumption really fell off in 2014 as compared to 2013. It was a really big drop in fact. Supply production curtailments couldn't catch up until about the fourth quarter of 2014 in fact. In other words, consumption dropped much faster than supplies.

You come back with...

That's not why oil rallied. This is what the EIA said before the 2014 collapse started: https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2014/july/iea-releases-oil-market-report-for-july.html This is what the oil industry did before the same:

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The EIA and the IEA are two separate bodies.

Do not link what the EIA "said" with a link from the IEA. Just hope that clears up some confusion?