dumb mother...its been a few weeks....what are you looking at, seems like curve keeps flattening...im watching 260bp(on the downside, 270upside) on the 2/10...the I-Banks kinda look good down here though, think QE3 is just going to be some way to keep the curve steep?...that would be good for AIG and C....seems like GS is finally firming up and they may have fallen on some bearish currency exposure, but might turn if the $USD gets weaker again...look at there SEC filings lately....they are selling Notes that are basically bearish USD bets to raise cash...
curve flattening
- Thread starter dumb_mother
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i just trade intraday so what started sending warning signals off that we are looking at a real rally was the bonds leading to the upside compared to the ty's-- i have nothing i'm really watching, but imo we are going to see some crazy volatility in the next couple of months- i wouldn't be surprised to see the curve start "breaking" with some huge dislocation as this correction takes shape. (think june/july 08)
QE3 and how the market will react to it is a big asterisk though, and as i posted before i think we are in a game of chicken now until it is announced- when it is announced though if i held positions overnight (which i don't) an amazing plan would be buying bonds and selling fy's against them (5:2) for about 36 hours and then flattening up to see how things settle in.
just so you know how bearish i really am (they say your outlook is shaped by the first big market move you trade through and i started trading in 06- so i'd say my first big market was a mega-bear) i wouldn't be surprised to see a dow/gold ratio 6ish in this correction, ultimately breaking below 4 in the next few years.
i think a great long term (2-3 months) trade right now would be sell 15 zf, buy 10 zn, buy 6 zb and sell 4 UB. but i really am just a daytrader so i won't be putting any of these on, just trying not to ever get caught unhedged short treasuries for the rest of the year.
QE3 and how the market will react to it is a big asterisk though, and as i posted before i think we are in a game of chicken now until it is announced- when it is announced though if i held positions overnight (which i don't) an amazing plan would be buying bonds and selling fy's against them (5:2) for about 36 hours and then flattening up to see how things settle in.
just so you know how bearish i really am (they say your outlook is shaped by the first big market move you trade through and i started trading in 06- so i'd say my first big market was a mega-bear) i wouldn't be surprised to see a dow/gold ratio 6ish in this correction, ultimately breaking below 4 in the next few years.
i think a great long term (2-3 months) trade right now would be sell 15 zf, buy 10 zn, buy 6 zb and sell 4 UB. but i really am just a daytrader so i won't be putting any of these on, just trying not to ever get caught unhedged short treasuries for the rest of the year.
I have resting bids for the Eurodollar Dec11-Dec12 spread between 0.40 and 0.60 for an average buy price of 0.50.
This is covering a short position initiated on May 20 at 0.90.
There was an earlier short position initiated on April 15 which was covered at 1.0. When the market continued to fail off through some key technical levels, a fresh short was initiated.
As I mentioned earlier, a short Euribor position in Dec11-Dec12 was covered last Friday.
This is covering a short position initiated on May 20 at 0.90.
There was an earlier short position initiated on April 15 which was covered at 1.0. When the market continued to fail off through some key technical levels, a fresh short was initiated.
As I mentioned earlier, a short Euribor position in Dec11-Dec12 was covered last Friday.
i smell a 133 handle in zn in the next couple months- and what do y'all think about my condor? it's already up since i posted it a fair amount and i think it's just going to keep on a printing.
yeah i was going to point out the inconsistency of the exchange offered spreads if you were to do znub
znzb : 5:3
zbub : 3:2
those would yield a 5:2 rather than the 3:1 that the znub trades at
interesting that these spreads don't lineup whereas shift them all over one and you get:
zfzn: 3:2
znzb: 5:3
zfzb: 5:2
wonder why the inconsistency
znzb : 5:3
zbub : 3:2
those would yield a 5:2 rather than the 3:1 that the znub trades at
interesting that these spreads don't lineup whereas shift them all over one and you get:
zfzn: 3:2
znzb: 5:3
zfzb: 5:2
wonder why the inconsistency
yeah sometimes i find myself in znub at 2.5:1 as i'm trading, but generally speaking i don't like to stretch out my pairs- i'll trade tufs, fits, nobs and bobs all day long but generally speaking don't feel as comfortable involved with the tut, fob or newb as i've coined the znub.