Cupola Trading - 2009

Today the trade worked as planned in the morning. I entered 5 NQ limit orders at 2.5 pts increments at 1,625.00, 1,627.50, 1,630, 1,632.50, 1,635.00 right before the Fed news. After the Fed announcement four orders got executed for an average price of 1628.75. As it was getting close to the end of the day, and I was getting close to a margin call on overnight maintenance balance, I covered two contracts at 1,626 for a nominal gain.

I am pretty comfortable with my position of two remaining NQ contracts and the average entry price. If we are seeing the market going through the topping process here, I believe I have a pretty good entry level.

However, I am still extremely cautious as SPX and DJIA are still in the uptrend (although not as strong) and still did not break key support levels.
 

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I intend to keep my short position initiated yesterday – short 2 NQ at average price of 1,628.75. Even though I may be missing some short-term trading opportunities by not trading around the position, I will also miss short-term losses, as I find 20 point NDX swings that we saw yesterday and today difficult to trade.

Day trading is not my style. I tend to trade a lot at turning points (well, what I believe are turning points), to establish “core” swing position for 5 – 20 days. Then, if the “core” position shows a profit and the market is moving in my direction, I use the leverage aggressively to trade around “core” position, when I see high probability set ups.

We are currently in a consolidation mode with the uptrend bias; and I am watching two key levels on SPX – 993 as support and 1,018 – 1,020 as resistance. The short-term plan is to initiate counter-trend short “trading” position if the market gets to a resistance area, and trend following short position if the market breaks support.
 

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Closed a short position of 2 NQ contracts at 1601.25, that I entered into at 1,628.75 after the Fed meeting for 27.5 NQ pts gain on each contract. I am still extremely bearish; however I don’t think the market will go down in a waterfall fashion. I will be looking at higher levels to re-enter the position; perfect level would be 1,615.00. If this does not happen, and the key support is broken, I will wait for the market to retest support area to get into the trade at approximately the same level. That’s the game plan for now.
 

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Quote from Cupola:

Closed a short position of 2 NQ contracts at 1601.25, that I entered into at 1,628.75 after the Fed meeting for 27.5 NQ pts gain on each contract. I am still extremely bearish; however I don’t think the market will go down in a waterfall fashion. I will be looking at higher levels to re-enter the position; perfect level would be 1,615.00. If this does not happen, and the key support is broken, I will wait for the market to retest support area to get into the trade at approximately the same level. That’s the game plan for now.
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Well done, Cupola.
 
bentedges, thanks!

I decided not to reenter short position today. There is a high probability that the last 30 min rally will continue in overnight GLOBEX on Sunday or on Monday morning. I will leave some opportunistic limit orders on Sunday night in case futures rally in Asian or European trading. I will post some charts this weekend to collect my thoughts for next week. Attached is the latest statement.
 

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Ramp – I appreciate your support.

This is a set up that I am currently looking at on NDX cash chart. It looks like my call on Friday was off – there is no continuation of Friday’s last 30 min rally in GLOBEX. I will try to make the best of it and re-enter half of the short position (1 NQ contract) that I closed on Friday. I will wait until Monday morning to decide what to do next. If I leverage myself too much in overnight session, I will not sleep, but stare at the monitors all night.
 
Forgot the attachement in the previous post.

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Following your journal with interest.I am also bearish at this point and suspect that if 990 support breaks we could get down to 961 suprisingly quick.There are some gaps below that could get filled- 975/6 (july 30th) for example. Also 905.8- 910.1 (july 15) though i doubt that will get filled for a while.
 
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