Cupola Trading - 2009

C

Cupola

I will not reveal my life story or methodology in the first post – I don’t think anyone here has time or desire to read first pages of the journal of the new poster. If the interest of the readers, and hopefully gains in my account, pick up, I will explain my methodology later. Explaining it now, without a public track record or interest from the readers, is a waste of cyberspace on my part. The main purpose of this journal for now is to attract like-minded individuals and to expand my network. I, of course, welcome comments, recommendations and PMs.

I am a swing trader by nature, so updates will not be very frequent – may be once every three to five days when I place the trades. I will try to post trades in real time, but because I do have a demanding full time job, sometime there may be delays. I will, however, post screenshots of order execution statements and periodically copies of the brokerage account statements (I am thinking both weekly and monthly). I will also put together some equity line graphs and high level account statistics.

The model account that I intend to make public is not my life savings, I can afford to lose it without hurting my family. I don’t intend to, but it helps to have the right mentality when making trading decisions.

I am funding my account with Interactive Brokers on Monday, July 27, 2009 with $10,000. I think they have a waiting period before I am allowed to trade, so I will post a short update when I am ready to begin.

I hope Uncle Sam will be getting a check from me for short term capital gains at the end of 2009.

Thanks for reading.
 
The indicators that I use show a high probability of the beginning of a multi-day pullback in the next couple of days. However, the price action itself does not seem to agree. Despite of that, I did pull the trigger on a short position earlier today. I will be watching the price action very closely today and tomorrow – because, I believe, we are near the turning point. As such, local support / resistance, highs / lows of the day become extremely important to time the turning point properly. The last leg of any extended market move is the most irrational, and this time it is true as ever. The market can still through last “f…ck you” to me and other shorts later today or tomorrow, but the odds seem to be in my favor …
 

Attachments

Short 1 NQ at 1,614.25

I added one more contract to my short position that I initiated yesterday. The rationale for the trade is that the trendline best seen on 60 min NDX chart will not hold today, and the market will break sharply. There are some notes on the chart.

Currently short 2 NQ contracts for an average price of ~ 1,619.75
 

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Interesting Journal.

I personally don't favor counter-trend trades, for very much the reasons that you spoke of, also, I've given up on trying to outsmart the market, and just let it tell me what it wants to do.

But everything sounds pretty good on your end, so good luck with your trading, and if the winning starts, your viewership should pickup accordingly.

Good trading
 
Nice way to start a journal - simple explanation - screen shots - account screenshots of executions-- no fluff. Very nice, props to you and good luck!
 
MandelbrotSet, F18HORNET – thanks for the kind words

I covered 1 short NQ position at 1,608 that I bought earlier today at 1,614.25 for 6.25 pts profit. Execution statement is attached. Currently short one NQ from 1,625.50 going into the weekend.
 

Attachments

Attached chart shows my entry and exit points today. Note, that the graph is for NDX cash, not futures. I prefer looking at and making my annotations on the cash charts, as opposed to futures. It is really a matter of personal preference, and I also think support / resistance and trendlines are somewhat more meaningful on cash.

I closed NQ short today at 1,608 for 6.25 pts profit for the following reasons:

• The trade failed to move in my favor by the target price in the target time frame. By looking at the days that resemble yesterday’s and today’s action in my historical database of daily patters, I was expecting a waterfall type movement this afternoon to 1,590 area without major corrections in NDX. It did not happen and I got out.
• NDX did drop lower after I covered, but SPX and DJIA are still strong and are not confirming the down move
• The models that I use are still predicting a multi-day pullback next week, but am not willing to be leveraged 6.4 to 1 over the weekend holding 2 short NQs – the risk is way too high
 

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