Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

[NoahA]

I gave back about $10-15K overtrading perp futures, but most of it, $50K I put into defi yield farming, but lost value on a couple of farms bnb-cake and usdt-cake which I closed the yield farms for losses when bnb and cake and btc went on a downtrend a month or 2 ago

I re-grouped a few weeks ago as mentioned on the thread a few posts back and focused on some core defi yield farms so all the $50K are fully deployed in the defi yield bearing positions, kept $8K in the perp futures account which is what the screenshot above

Without jinxing it, all the defi positions are in profits, but as I've mentioned, I even leveraged some of my btc's that were just sitting on cold storage and borrowed against it to deploy more capital to defi and get more yields

This is my confidence that bitcoin has "bottomed". If I borrowed against btc when it was at $30K, I'd be in a bad position right now

By borrowing against bitcoin, I do not have to sell any bitcoins to take advantage of some crypto yield opportunities

The yields are the income, but none of the yields are realized at this time meaning they are not converted to $ yet. I'm still using cash for expenses

NFA - My 2 biggest defi positions are Cake (~$37K) and XVS (Venus - current position value is $35K) staking. Cake has 1-yr lock, Venus only 7 days, but no locks now, since the 7 days has elapsed

Ampl is a weird defi position, it earns 3-4% per day via increase of token circulating supply, anyway 2 years ago it was over 1000% (could have been 3-4000%) roi in about a month of positive rebases, but the tl,dr is that is not a forever hold, 90 days of positive rebases and it's bigger than bitcoin market cap

I have 1 other small farm

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Wow, great summary. Take that all you fuckers who jump on John. You assholes have a million bright ideas or complains and show fuck all, and no confidence to short the crypto market that you all say is worthless.

I'd love for this to be the bottom as well, and even watching SOL go almost 100% from the low makes me sad to not have bought more at a good price. (I'm just looking for my BE exit though).

It is interesting that even with more bad news, bitcoin is holding steady. But I think I just need to sit back and not do anything at this point. I already do enough in the equity futures markets, so I can sit out crypto trading and just take a more long term approach.

 

[johnarb]

Stock market reversal to a weak-close is a reminder we're still in a bear market

Will close the long btc perps if gets above the trend lines earlier

I'm an expert round-tripper, don't try this at home, from over $1500 profits to a loss right now, m2m. Position still open, though so might be able to close it for profits if Asian traders have a btc pump-party tonight

 

[johnarb]

It is interesting that even with more bad news, bitcoin is holding steady. But I think I just need to sit back and not do anything at this point. I already do enough in the equity futures markets, so I can sit out crypto trading and just take a more long term approach.

Bankruptcy announcement of a crypto firm is almost always very good news

This is without taking into account the domino push to the next crypto firm insolvency

When BlockFi, Celsius and Voyager and some other lending firms went bankrupt, the crypto assets in their custody were frozen from being sold off or liquidated

FTX buying out BlockFi and Voyager unfroze those assets, and if you remember the Sunday night before BlockFi announced bankruptcy, we had a btc wick down over $500? During the bankruptcy announcement I believe BlockFi disclosed they liquidated a couple of hundred million $ worth of crypto assets

So bankruptcy announcement is good, pre-bankruptcy is bad, a couple of Friday nights ago, DCG was liquidating a bunch of tokens, Filecoin, was one of them,, so the sooner that Genesis announces bankruptcy, the better

When FTX announced bankruptcy, we found out they had no bitcoins! so cannot dump btc if Sam Scammerman-Fraud had none!

I said almost always bullish as the bankruptcy court will not allow liquidation of crypto assets, but we got news recently that all the Celsius crypto assets that the users deposited belong to Celsius and now there's risk of billions of $ worth that can sold to pay off creditors, investors and the last in line are the platform users aka crypto assets depositors?

Now all these bankruptcies have another increased-demand effect if the investors have conviction for the long term

Let's focus on just btc, let's say a rich person has 100 btc caught up in the genesis/gemini/blockfi/voyager fiasco, now that rich person has to come into the realization the 100 btc is gone

Maybe that rich person wants to buy 100 btc again from the market?

So that's the situation with a lot of the bitcoins and crypto assets lost because of the failures of 3AC, Celsius, BlockFi, Voyager, Gemini, Genesis, FTX

Heck, the legitimate owners of the FTX 70,000 bitcoins are now owners of 0 bitcoins, unless they have other bitcoins in local wallets or other places that did not shutdown

So maybe a lof ot them in denial or maybe they have no more funds to allocate to buying back bitcoins and crypto assets but I'm guessing that once the bitcoin price starts to go up they will not want to lose their bitcoin position, at least that's how I would think about it if I was in their shoes

 

[johnarb]

NFA

I've already accepted that we may be in for a 2-5 year bear market in stocks and cryptos, but I found this video and it would be nice if I'm wrong and the bull market starts this year

I remember Yellen being fearful of treasury market illiquidity a few months ago

I put the video to start at the point of relevant discussion but the whole video is actually very good

Anyways... If the Fed does Japan-like move of buying US treasuries, hmmmmmmnnnnn, my party hat will be within arms-length, Let's fucking go!!!

 

[NoahA]

NFA

I've already accepted that we may be in for a 2-5 year bear market in stocks and cryptos, but I found this video and it would be nice if I'm wrong and the bull market starts this year

I remember Yellen being fearful of treasury market illiquidity a few months ago

I put the video to start at the point of relevant discussion but the whole video is actually very good

Anyways... If the Fed does Japan-like move of buying US treasuries, hmmmmmmnnnnn, my party hat will be within arms-length, Let's fucking go!!!

Loved this! What is specially good is that this guy comes from the financial sector so he isn't just a random Bitcoin maximalist hippie. I also love how he laid out his most likely thesis for a failed treasury auction. And best of all the fact that he thinks Bitcoin is in the bottom range.

I honestly cannot believe how many smart guys there are here on this forum and yet they fight Bitcoin to The bitter end.

 

[NoahA]

So maybe a lof ot them in denial or maybe they have no more funds to allocate to buying back bitcoins and crypto assets but I'm guessing that once the bitcoin price starts to go up they will not want to lose their bitcoin position, at least that's how I would think about it if I was in their shoes

I remember reading an article about how if you don't own Bitcoin you are essentially short Bitcoin. The interesting thing about this is that by being long your risk is limited at 17K but by being short Bitcoin you essentially have unlimited risk. I really do foresee a day where exchanges are overwhelmed with buying and the men pool is also overwhelmed with transactions of people trying to get their Bitcoin into cold storage all at once. I almost wonder what an exchange would do if they have let's say 50 coins left but refuse to sell those two customers because the insiders at The Exchange want to hoard them for themselves.

 

[johnarb]

I'm an expert round-tripper, don't try this at home, from over $1500 profits to a loss right now, m2m. Position still open, though so might be able to close it for profits if Asian traders have a btc pump-party tonight

Out of position for a little over $500 profit, whew

 

[johnarb]

Powell just gave the market a run-around today... Anyway, market is not spooked, bitcoin might do well today

Looking for an entry ~$17,360'sh on the perp futures

 

[The_Krakenite]

I had a small chunk of crypto hanging around in my Kraken account still, so I decided to stake that too and get some dividends. A big risk people are worried about, is that the Shanghai upgrade won't go well on the blockchain as planned, and people may still be unable to un-stake. That said, I plan to keep staked until I die, so I'm not too worried on that.

I do expect Ethereum to fall this year even more now... Western governments have even more pain for this year than last year... more interest rates to go up. Also, the retail got into crypto assets long before Bay Street and Wall Street did. This leaves a lot of holders in the hands of retail still, which are being crushed by inflation. Living in Canada for the average person is now basically reaching unsustainable. The trend of defaulting on credit cards, auto-loans, etc are increasing with no end in sight this year. This will only continue to result in more forced selling of assets all around.

Trying to short is risky as hell, as politicians and other government reps are looking for some immediate magical hockus-pockus trick to find an easy solution to their complex problem they've created. And those have a way of causing disasters down the road even if the present looks like everything is magically ok again.

 

[johnarb]

I sold way too soon earlier this morning and had to go out today so was not able to re-enter and missed out on a some wicked green candles

Looking to enter long in the low $18,100's level btc perp futures