Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

[NoahA]

Then CNBC anchor asked again if the balance sheet can withstand a bank run or other crisis like what happened with FTX and CZ said yes, because Binance is profitable, the Binance treasury so any obligations they have are not a threat to the company's viability (I'm paraphrasing)

I think this is an interesting way to answer the question. Being profitable or not should not affect the survivability of a bank run. Its only a matter of liquidity. If customer assets truly are separate, then each customer should be able to withdraw every bitcoin, every ETH coin and all other coins, and they should have no problem processing all the withdrawals.

The problem of course is if their inventory of coins doesn't match the sum of all the coins in the customer accounts. It doesn't even matter if they have enough assets, because sometimes those assets aren't liquid enough, and if they need to sell a lot and quickly, the price will not be favorable.

Now a traditional bank also has this problem, and to a much larger degree. A bank may have billions in deposits, and I bet less than 1% of liquid cash on hand since their business is to lend it out. Lets of course not even kid ourselves though, the bank has the power to take a small little deposit and inflate it 9 times to loan this out, an amount of money that didn't even previously exist. And since any shortcomings of withdrawals would be protected by the government, which will just print it up if need be, there is no worry about a bank run for traditional banks.

But Binance could have a big problem if 75% of coins in customer accounts all of a sudden were looking for a withdrawl all at the same time.

 

[johnarb]

But Binance could have a big problem if 75% of coins in customer accounts all of a sudden were looking for a withdrawl all at the same time.

In the CNBC interview, CZ said they never commingle user assets with Binance assets

By the way, misappropriating user assets is illegal

Kraken says the same thing, they do not touch user assets for their operations. The CEO of Kraken encourages users to withdraw their cryptos from the exchange if they are not actively trading as it doesn't earn Kraken any fees but just a burden of liability to store and secure the user assets

 

[johnarb]

Long btc perp futures @ $16,175 stop loss $15,950

 

[johnarb]

Long btc perp futures @ $16,175 stop loss $15,950

Closed long btc perp futures position @ $16,262

 

[johnarb]

I think Bitcoin and crypto assets are going into a bull market within the next 6 months

[fake bitcoins and crypto assets are similar to paper gold and silver that are used to suppress the true market price]

Bankruptcies and contagion in the crypto assets ecosystem

The more bankruptcies are announced, the better. These crypto firms are leveraged which is why they became insolvent and in that process, they have created a lot of fake Bitcoins and crypto assets

The best example of this is FTX, which sold 70,000 bitcoins that do not exist and that has suppressed the price as the buyers' need to own bitcoins have been met. FTX also created a lot of other fake crypto assets, not just bitcoins

Why is bankruptcy good? It's an official announcement that is legally-binding that the crypto firm will no longer be able to create and sell fake bitcoins and crypto assets. This also protects the crypto firm from forced liquidations (selling of crypto assets) until much later after the bankruptcy courts and stuff

So far, we got FTX, Voyager, Celsius, BlockFi and a bunch of other crypto firms that are small

The big elephant in the room is Genesis, the biggest crypto firm that could go bankrupt. A little bit tricky, since as much as I want Genesis to announce bankruptcy, it could cascade to the parent company DCG and then to GBTC unwinding of 630K bitcoins

Also happening right now is a ton of bitcoin miners dumping their bitcoins on the market. This is part of the Bitcoin bull and bear market cycle and usually, miner capitulation happens at the end of the bear market


China factor

So, with a ton of crypto firm bankruptcies, a cleansing of fake bitcoins and fake crypto assets that will no longer flood the market, we can have a more real price discovery if only there was a big demand for bitcoins and crypto assets....

• What's happening in China is very sad

And this is the demand that could fuel the next bull market in Bitcoin and crypto assets

Every resident of mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan should be looking into acquiring as much bitcoins, or ethereum, or stablecoins or other crypto assets

They could also acquire gold and silver but that has difficulty of crossing borders

And their family and close friends in other parts of the world could help them in the process

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Anyway, this is only an opinion, but I am ready for the next bull market. I think $50K/btc in the next 6 months is possible, even $100k/btc is possible

 

[NoahA]

I think $50K/btc in the next 6 months is possible, even $100k/btc is possible

The best part is that even @deaddog will get on board too because he is waiting for it to start trending, which isn't really so bad of a strategy.

@RedDuke might not get in if it doesn't go low enough, and I doubt he will chase.

A guy I really like on Youtube, CTO Larrson, also is waiting to see the trend first before jumping in. He has a fancy indicator that he coded up that lets him know when the trend turns bullish, so we probably need price to turn up above 25k or so before he gets confirmation.

So its kind of funny that even though many people hate crypto, they also seem to be waiting to get in once it gets low enough, which for many is perhaps a price that it will never get to.

 

[Ed48]

So its kind of funny that even though many people hate crypto, they also seem to be waiting to get in once it gets low enough...

Yes but purely as a trading (speculative) opportunity. I doubt they'll be looking to get wedded to it as a long term investment.

 

[johnarb]

A guy I really like on Youtube, CTO Larrson, also is waiting to see the trend first before jumping in. He has a fancy indicator that he coded up that lets him know when the trend turns bullish, so we probably need price to turn up above 25k or so before he gets confirmation.

CTO Larrson is great!! I wish I followed his recommendation and made a lot of money shorting

He made a lot of calls based on charts, especially the one with Luna which would have been awesome if I put perp short positions on it

I think he's giving classes for a fee, you just reminded me I need to sign up for it if it's not too expensive, lol

As far as my bull market macro call, there's still danger like Tether or Coinbase blowing up or some things I'm not considering at all

 

[johnarb]

Looking to enter long btc perp futures @ $16,333

no position yet

 

[NoahA]

CTO Larrson is great!! I wish I followed his recommendation and made a lot of money shorting

He made a lot of calls based on charts, especially the one with Luna which would have been awesome if I put perp short positions on it

I think he's giving classes for a fee, you just reminded me I need to sign up for it if it's not too expensive, lol

As far as my bull market macro call, there's still danger like Tether or Coinbase blowing up or some things I'm not considering at all

Yup, his course is about $2k from what I recall, and he really has a passion to teach you, not just sell you his indicator. But what he is doing is mostly following trends, not day trading.

Because I'm already heavily involved with day trading ES/NQ, I went into crypto hoping I could just get in and forget about it. One of my biggest problems for day trading is never holding long enough. I decided to do this with my crypto, and well, we know the results of the past year. LOL... Its true, as he says, there really is no need to hold through a bear market, even though like you, he also has his core position of bitcoin that he just leaves alone.

Its clearly too late to exit now, but its just too bad I wasn't more prepared with stop losses. Its my ETH and SOL positions that bother me the most as those may never come back, and I don't have the confidence like I do with bitcoin.

Shorting some of this would have been an incredible play. To be honest, even understanding that with the Fed raising rates, which they signaled very clearly should have been a sign. Oh well.... moving forward.