Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

[Sprout]

Sorry, had to look up HTF which I thought meant high-frequency trading but don't understand how it applies to charts or I misunderstood?

Edit: Google auto-correct, sorry about that. HTF Hight Time Frame, got it, prefer a longer bigger range and higher risk/reward so I should do that

HTF’s are good to deduce narrative, form bias and frame trades. LTF’s are good to drill down to see setups and reduce risk with entries.

The swing points looking left are where there is resting liquidity. The market is optimized to seek liquidity.

If you zoom in on those HTF large candles, you’ll see that on LTF’s that there are gaps in liquidity; that various price levels had no trading. The market will tend to fill these price gaps in time.

 

[johnarb]

HTF’s are good to deduce narrative, form bias and frame trades. LTF’s are good to drill down to see setups and reduce risk with entries.

The swing points looking left are where there is resting liquidity. The market is optimized to seek liquidity.

If you zoom in on those HTF large candles, you’ll see that on LTF’s that there are gaps in liquidity; that various price levels had no trading. The market will tend to fill these price gaps in time.

I'm embarrassed to admit that I cannot drill down on the chart as it's a free charting on the platform

I think I'll sign up for TradingView but need perpetual futures charting as it's different prices than spot

I missed a long entry within 15 minutes of my closing the position. It would have given a wider range and profit if I took it, when it wicked down below $16,400, at the time it looked like a "crash" below support

If I had a professional trading chart, that wick down would have shown up as low volume, hence the thin wick?

 

[Sprout]

I'm embarrassed to admit that I cannot drill down on the chart as it's a free charting on the platform

I think I'll sign up for TradingView but need perpetual futures charting as it's different prices than spot

I missed a long entry within 15 minutes of my closing the position. It would have given a wider range and profit if I took it, when it wicked down below $16,400, at the time it looked like a "crash" below support

If I had a professional trading chart, that wick down would have shown up as low volume, hence the thin wick?

View attachment 299484

Tradingview generally has Black Friday Specials with very good discounts.

Yes, wicks and tails are "poor highs/lows" and with something like Exocharts and the right template and overlays you can see "inside the market" of each candle and it's volume profile.

Once you "see" the tpo's and volume profiles of candle compositions you can then simplify with standard bar/candle charts that TV provides. You can probably do the same with TV but I was using Exocharts when I was studying Footprint charting. Once I got the aha, then Exocharts was less useful since I've pivoted from trading crypto; they didn't support the instruments I was interested in and let the premium subscription lapse.

TPO, volume profile and footprints are another way to interpret market data, some like it better, some not-so-much. Tradingview offers more general functionality and is a good first purchase. One can use 30m TF to hack Market Profile (TPO's).

 

[johnarb]

Tradingview generally has Black Friday Specials with very good discounts.

Yes, wicks and tails are "poor highs/lows" and with something like Exocharts and the right template and overlays you can see "inside the market" of each candle and it's volume profile.

Once you "see" the tpo's and volume profiles of candle compositions you can then simplify with standard bar/candle charts that TV provides. You can probably do the same with TV but I was using Exocharts when I was studying Footprint charting. Once I got the aha, then Exocharts was less useful since I've pivoted from trading crypto; they didn't support the instruments I was interested in and let the premium subscription lapse.

TPO, volume profile and footprints are another way to interpret market data, some like it better, some not-so-much. Tradingview offers more general functionality and is a good first purchase. One can use 30m TF to hack Market Profile (TPO's).

Thank you very much, Sprout! Really appreciate all the info

I can pay with crypto on TradingView which is awesome. I'm watching a YouTube video on TradingView "how to use high-low charts" , it's exciting to learn about

To be honest, though, I don't want to overtrade, only want 1-3 trades per day

Thanks again for all the info, I have lots to learn on this

 

[johnarb]

On Twitter spaces yesterday, it was mentioned $3.9 Billion worth of bitcoins have been withdrawn from exchanges...

and today someone mentioned the backlog on the Bitcoin mempool so I checked... 129 blocks backlog!!

fucken' eh

iykyk

 

[TrAndy2022]

Is the crypto bear market already over ?

https://crypto.com/research/crypto-bear-markets

Crypto.com Research and Insights disclaimer for research reports

Key Takeaways

• According to Grayscale Investment’s estimate, the current bear market has approximately 250 days to go. Although unpleasant, bear markets are part of the market cycle, are not crypto-specific phenomena, and pose opportunities for investors.
• Market cycles lack a standard definition but typically last approximately four years, with bull runs being two to three times longer than bear runs. However, there is no consensus on their length, and different reports suggest that they may become shorter or longer.
• We are advancing through the fourth largest drawdown in Bitcoin’s history, reaching -71.0%, while previous drawdowns have reached up to -86.9%.
• Halvings seem to cause price surges and drops without erasing gains. In 2018, Bitcoin peaked at around US$20,000 and fell to US$4,000, but its pre-halving value was about US$600.It is possible that 2024’s halving may follow the same pattern.
• Bear markets often breed fear, with clickbait-style news pronouncing Bitcoin ‘dead’ 35 times a year on average and Google searches such as ‘Bitcoin is dead’ booming.
• Bear sentiment benefits the market’s health. Billionaire Mark Cuban and Ethereum’s creator Vitalik Buterin welcome bear markets as a Darwinian mechanism to thin out weak assets.

 

[johnarb]

I made a trade about 2 hours ago long btc perp futures and profited a little less than 700 USDT

I did not post it here as it was clear as I took the screenshot that (below) it was a bad trade, going long on a downtrend when I did not observe a candle-reversal, yet

I purchased a yearly subscription to TradingView Pro+ paid with bitcoin (of course) and spent about 3 hours trying to match the ma lines on my trading platform, also watched a couple of youtube videos on TradingView

I was too eager to trade as a result. There's a lesson here...

• Don't get distracted

Trading s difficult enough, we cannot afford to lose focus and face more headwinds to profits

nfa

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Current chart below:

 

[johnarb]

Long btc perp futures @ $16,793 (wide) stop loss @ $16,480

Bad entry price, chased on the way up. Looking for a btc move back to above $17K

Geopolitical (Poland) news causing volatility in all markets

nfa

 

[johnarb]

Long btc perp futures @ $16,793 (wide) stop loss @ $16,480

Bad entry price, chased on the way up. Looking for a btc move back to above $17K

Geopolitical (Poland) news causing volatility in all markets

nfa

Every time it hits $16,900, btc perp futures pulls back. I've seen it 3 times. Closed position $16,895 but looking to re-enter, hope it doesn't run upwards now that I exited

 

[johnarb]

Re-entered long btc perp futures @ $16,833 (wide) stop loss @ $16,480

Good entry price now since closed earlier position for profits

Geopolitical (Poland) news causing volatility in all markets

nfa